TUCSON, AZ – JANUARY 06: Arizona Wildcats players celebrate after defeating the BYU Cougars 75-72 on January 6, 2026, at McKale Center in Tucson, AZ. (Photo by Christopher Hook/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Saturday is a prime opportunity for Arizona’s women’s basketball to put together a modest winning streak. UA’s upset of BYU leads into a game against UCF. With the Knights and the Wildcats sitting outside the NET’s top 100, it’s a critical game for the Wildcats before they head into a stretch that includes road games at Iowa State, TCU, and Arizona State.
A win against UCF would give Arizona a 2-3 record in the Big 12 and an 11-5 record overall. That could set the team up for positive things at the end of the season, but it would also mean a morale boost now.
“It would be huge,” Arizona head coach Becky Burke said after the team defeated BYU. “These are so hard earned and hard to get. They know how hard that win was out there. I’m glad they have an off-day tomorrow, because they need it, you know. So it’s big, but we could also be 1-4, so they got to be locked in.”
The players feel the excitement building.
“Now that we got our first one, I feel like it would give us a lot more momentum going into these next ones,” junior guard Tanyuel Welch said. “And I feel like we all can agree that tonight was fun. We enjoyed the game… we want to just keep growing from here, making it exciting and growing together and just learning throughout the season.”
UCF is coming off a loss in Tempe against an ASU team that is resurgent under first-year head coach Molly Miller. The Sun Devils are 16-1 overall and 4-1 in the Big 12. That one game shows just how unpredictable the conference is, though. It came at the hands of the BYU Cougars, a team Arizona just upset.
Those weren’t even the biggest upsets in the early part of conference play. Texas Tech won at Baylor and broke into the rankings for the first time since 2012. The Lady Raiders are currently the only undefeated Big 12 team. Utah handed the TCU Horned Frogs their first loss. The Utes beat Arizona by just one point in McKale Center. And Cincinnati—a team that was projected to finish 12th by both the coaches and the media before it lost preseason Big 12 Freshman of the Year Dee Alexander—defeated Iowa State and conference preseason Player of the Year Audi Crooks.
Up Next for Arizona Women’s Basketball
UCF Knights @ Arizona Wildcats
When: Saturday, Jan. 10 @ 2 p.m. MST
Where: McKale Center in Tucson, Ariz.
Stats: Arizona Live Stats
Almost all of this year’s upsets have one thing in common. They have been pulled off by home teams. BYU beat ASU at home. Utah got to host TCU. Iowa State had to travel to Cincinnati. Arizona defeated BYU in front of its notoriously large fanbase in McKale Center. Only Baylor’s win at Iowa State and Texas Tech’s victory in Waco have been on the road, and both of those were between teams that were either ranked at the time or the following week.
That makes the game against UCF even more critical. If Arizona hopes to be in contention for a postseason berth at the end of the year, it needs to stack as many wins as possible. It only plays the other teams near the bottom of the league once each, and UCF is one of those teams and the Wildcats get to host the Knights.
The WNIT or even the WBIT becomes more likely if UA can beat the teams it’s supposed to beat. Projections say the Wildcats are supposed to beat the Knights.
UCF Knights (8-7, 0-4) @ Arizona Wildcats (10-4, 1-3) by the numbers
NET ratings: Arizona sits at No. 126 in the NET. It’s SOS is ranked No. 177 overall and No. 348 out of conference. UCF is No. 142 in the NET. It has played a schedule ranked No. 172 overall and No. 346 outside of league play.
Her Hoop Stats ratings: HHS has Arizona ranked No. 90 overall. The Wildcats have the 89th-best offense and the 102nd-best defense. The stats service ranks UCF No. 134 with the No. 130 offense and No. 144 defense.
Massey ratings: Massey has Arizona at No. 75. UCF is at No. 123.
Projections: Both HHS and Massey strongly favor Arizona.
HHS gives the Wildcats a favorable win probability no matter where the game is played. In Tucson, that probability is 73.7 percent. The points are 72.3 for Arizona and 64.7 for UCF with a margin of 7.6 and a point total of 137.1.
Massey also favors Arizona no matter where the game is played. In Tucson, the win probability is 74 percent. The most likely score is 72-63.