Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Miami Heat odds, tips and betting trends

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Miami Heat odds, tips and betting trends | 1/11/2026

The Miami Heat (20-18) go up against the Oklahoma City Thunder (32-7) on Sunday, January 11, 2026 at Paycom Center. It tips at 7 p.m. ET on FDSSUN and FDSOK.

The Thunder enter their game against the Heat as double-digit favorites. The Thunder are favored by 14.5 points. The matchup’s point total is set at 232.

Thunder vs. Heat betting odds

NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. Odds updated Sunday at 3:30 a.m. ET. For a full list of sports betting odds, access USA TODAY Sports Betting Scores Odds Hub.

Spread: Oklahoma City -14.5Total: 232Moneyline: Oklahoma City -862, Miami +579Watch this game on Fubo!Heat at Thunder odds, spread, & morePredictionPick ATS: Heat (+ 14.5)Pick OU: Over (232)Prediction: Thunder 122 – Heat 111MoneylineThe Thunder have won 32 of the 39 games they were favored on the moneyline this season (82.1%).In games it has played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -862 or shorter, Oklahoma City has gone 15-1 (93.8% win percentage).The Thunder have an 89.6% chance to win this game based on the moneyline’s implied probability.The Heat have been underdogs in 21 games this season and won 10 (47.6%) of those contests.Miami has not entered a game this season with longer moneyline odds than +579.The moneyline for this contest implies a 14.7% chance of a victory for the Heat.Against the spreadThe Thunder score only 3.7 more points per game (121.3) than the Heat allow (117.6).Oklahoma City has a 17-8 record against the spread and a 24-1 record overall when putting up more than 117.6 points.Miami is 19-8 against the spread and 17-10 overall when it scores more than 108.3 points.Oklahoma City has an ATS record of 19-13 and a 28-4 record overall when its opponents score fewer than 119.6 points.The Thunder are the NBA’s second-ranked scoring team (121.3 PPG), while the Heat rank 20th in points per game allowed (117.6) in the league.Miami is the NBA’s fifth-ranked offense (119.6 PPG), while Oklahoma City is the top-ranked defense (108.3).The Thunder have put up a total of 509 more points than their opponents this year (an average of 13 per game), and the Heat have out-scored opponents by 76 points on the season (two more per game).Over/UnderOklahoma City has an average implied point total of 121.3 this year, which is 1.7 points lower than its implied total in Sunday’s game (123).So far this season, Oklahoma City has put up more than 123 points in 20 games.The average implied point total on the year for Miami (121.6) is 12.6 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (109).How to watch Thunder vs. HeatGame day: Sunday, January 11, 2026Game time: 7 p.m. ETLocation: Oklahoma City, OklahomaArena: Paycom CenterTV channel: FanDuel Sports Network Kansas CityLive stream: Watch this game on FuboWatch this game on Fubo!

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