Jan. 11, 2026, 10:57 a.m. ET

The Miami Heat (20-18) and Oklahoma City Thunder (32-7) meet Sunday at 7 p.m. ET at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Heat vs. Thunder odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.

2024-25 season series: Thunder won 2-0

The Heat were throttled by the Indiana Pacers 123-99 Saturday, failing to cover as a 6.5-point road favorite as the Under (236.5) cashed. G Tyler Herro scored a team-high 21 points on 8-for-19 shooting. Miami has lost 3 of its last 4, but is 5-3 over its last 8, covering in each victory. It is 21-17 against the spread (ATS) on the season.

The Thunder beat the Memphis Grizzlies 117-116 Friday, but failed to cover as a 5.5-point road favorite with the Over (229.5) hitting. Oklahoma City was led by F Jalen Williams, who scored 26 points on 9-for-18 shooting. The Thunder, despite having the league’s best record, are 2-2 straight up and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games. They are 19-20 ATS on the season.

Watch the NBA on Fubo!Heat at Thunder odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Heat +575 (bet $100 to win $575) | Thunder -900 (bet $900 to win $100)Against the spread (ATS): Heat +14.5 (-115) | Thunder -14.5 (-105)Over/Under (O/U): 233.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)Heat at Thunder key injuries

Heat

(Not yet submitted — below was for Saturday’s game)

G Terry Rozier III (personal) out

Thunder

C Isaiah Hartenstein (soleus) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Heat at Thunder picks and predictionsPrediction

Thunder 123, Heat 113

PASS.

Avoid this play. The Thunder (-900) should win with ease, but are too expensive to consider here.

BET HEAT +14.5 (-115).

The Thunder are oddly difficult to trust to win by a sizable margin. Their last 4 games have been a 1-point road win over the Memphis Grizzlies, a 4-point home win over the Utah Jazz and back-to-back losses to the Charlotte Hornets and Phoenix Suns. OKC has allowed at least 116 points in 3 straight games, so its lacking defense may not allow it to separate by this margin.

The Heat certainly haven’t played up to par, but they have won outright in 3 of their last 5 games as an underdog and are 3-2 ATS in those contests. Miami has scored at least 115 points in 6 of its last 8 games.

Take HEAT +14.5 (-115).

BET OVER 233.5 (-110).

The Heat like to play fast, and the Thunder have the fifth-most efficient offense in the NBA. Couple those together, and there should be ample scoring opportunities.

Oklahoma City has the No. 1 defense in the NBA (108.3 points per game), but over its last 5 games, it has dropped to No. 12. That is mainly why it is 3-2 O/U in those games. Miami has scored at least 125 points in 3 of its last 7 games as well.

Take OVER 233.5 (-110).

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