Golden State Warriors vs. Miami Heat odds, tips and betting trends

Golden State Warriors vs. Miami Heat odds, tips and betting trends | 1/19/2026

The Golden State Warriors (24-19) will attempt to continue a three-game winning stretch when hosting the Miami Heat (22-20) on Monday, January 19, 2026 at Chase Center. This contest is at 10 p.m. ET on FDSSUN and NBCS-BA.

The Warriors enter their matchup against the Heat as a 6-point favorite. The point total for the matchup is 238.5.

Warriors vs. Heat betting odds

NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. Odds updated Monday at 3:30 a.m. ET. For a full list of sports betting odds, access USA TODAY Sports Betting Scores Odds Hub.

Spread: Golden State -6Total: 238.5Moneyline: Golden State -229, Miami +189Watch this game on Fubo!Heat at Warriors odds, spread, & morePredictionPick ATS: Heat (+ 6)Pick OU: Under (238.5)Prediction: Warriors 119 – Heat 115MoneylineThe Warriors have gone 20-12 in games they were favored on the moneyline (winning 62.5% of those games).Golden State has a record of 15-3 in games it has played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -229 or shorter (winning 83.3%).Based on this game’s moneyline, the Warriors have an implied win probability of 69.6%.This season, the Heat have won 11 out of the 24 games, or 45.8%, in which they’ve been the underdog.Miami has a record of 3-8, a 27.3% win rate, when it is set as the underdog by +189 or more by sportsbooks this season.The implied probability of a win by the Heat based on the moneyline is 34.6%.Against the spreadThe Warriors record 116.2 points per game, only 1.7 fewer points than the 117.9 the Heat give up.Golden State is 16-8 against the spread and 19-5 overall when scoring more than 117.9 points.When it scores more than 113.3 points, Miami is 20-7 against the spread and 18-9 overall.Golden State’s record is 19-8 against the spread and 21-6 overall when it gives up fewer than 119.5 points.The Warriors are the NBA’s 18th-ranked scoring team (116.2 PPG), while the Heat rank 22nd in points per game allowed (117.9) in the league.Miami’s squad is currently the fifth-ranked scoring team in the NBA (119.5 PPG), while Golden State’s team is eighth in points allowed per game (113.3).The Warriors have totaled 127 more points than their opponents this season (2.9 per game on average), and the Heat have scored 67 more points than their opponents (1.6 per game).Over/UnderThe average implied total for Golden State this season is 118.8 points, 3.2 fewer points than its implied total of 122 points in Monday’s game.This season, Golden State has put up more than 122 points in a game 15 times.The average implied point total on the year for Miami (121.5) is 5.5 more points than the team’s implied total in this matchup (116).How to watch Warriors vs. HeatWatch this game on Fubo!

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