Heat vs Suns Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props

Suns vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Sunday‘s game with 63.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and Suns.

Suns vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Suns will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 63.4% confidence.

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Heat Best Bets for Tonight:

The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 33 of their last 45 away games (+20.45 Units / 40% ROI)

The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 29 of their last 45 away games (+19.90 Units / 36% ROI)

The Miami Heat have covered the 1H Spread in 29 of their last 45 away games (+13.00 Units / 25% ROI)

The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 25 of their last 45 away games (+12.70 Units / 21% ROI)

The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 away games (+7.75 Units / 47% ROI)

Suns Best Bets for Tonight:

The Phoenix Suns have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 40 games (+18.35 Units / 26% ROI)

The Phoenix Suns have covered the Spread in 29 of their last 40 games (+16.90 Units / 38% ROI)

The Phoenix Suns have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 28 of their last 40 games (+14.30 Units / 32% ROI)

The Phoenix Suns have hit the 1H Moneyline in 25 of their last 40 games (+14.20 Units / 24% ROI)

The Phoenix Suns have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 23 of their last 35 games at home (+12.55 Units / 28% ROI)

Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 25-20 (+3 Units / 5.93% ROI).

24-22 against the Moneyline (+1.35 Units / 1.82% ROI)

24-21 against the Over for game total points (+0.9 Units / 1.78% ROI)

21-24 against the Under for game total points (-5.4 Units / -10.67% ROI)

Phoenix Suns Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Suns have gone 31-14 (+15.6 Units / 31.52% ROI).

27-18 against the Moneyline (+15.35 Units / 20.32% ROI)

19-26 against the Over for game total points (-9.6 Units / -19.39% ROI)

26-19 against the Under for game total points (+5.1 Units / 10.3% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Suns:

The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 40 games (-20.95 Units / -45% ROI)

The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 2H Game Total Over in 19 of their last 50 games (-16.85 Units / -29% ROI)

The Phoenix Suns have only hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 30 games (-13.15 Units / -38% ROI)

The Phoenix Suns have only hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 40 games (-12.50 Units / -28% ROI)

The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 1 of their last 10 games (-11.15 Units / -83% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:

The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 30 games (-17.65 Units / -45% ROI)

The Miami Heat have only covered the 3Q Spread in 11 of their last 35 games (-16.60 Units / -41% ROI)

The Miami Heat have only covered the 2H Spread in 9 of their last 30 games (-15.55 Units / -44% ROI)

The Miami Heat have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 14 of their last 45 away games (-14.54 Units / -26% ROI)

The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 18 of their last 45 away games (-13.35 Units / -26% ROI)

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Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Phoenix Suns

The Heat are 10-22 (.312) when attempting 15 or less free throws since the start of the 2023-24 season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .439

The Heat are 6-21 (.222) when forcing fewer than 5 steals since the start of the 2023-24 season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .391

The Heat are 17-9 (.654) when they win the turnover margin this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .606

The Heat were 14-8 (.636) when scoring 15 or more second chance points last season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .557

Phoenix Suns: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Suns are 16-6 (.727) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .529

The Suns are 3-4 (.429) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points this season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .576

The Suns were 17-4 (.810) when forcing 10 or more steals in the 2023-24 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .572

The Suns were 16-29 (.356) when scoring fewer second chance points than their opponent last season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .444

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 10.6 fast break points per game (486 points/46 games) in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.0

The Heat averaged 53.3 points per game (4,368 points/82 games) in the second half in the 2023-24 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.5

The Heat have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.2 (695 assists/ 322 TOs) in the first half this season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.9

The Heat are shooting 37% from three (618/1,686) this season — tied for 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

Phoenix Suns Offensive Stats & Trends

The Suns have averaged 21.1 points in the paint per game (4,406 points/209 games) in the second half since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 24.3

The Suns averaged 21.4 points in the paint per game (1,758 points/82 games) in the second half in the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 24.6

The Suns have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.4 (540 assists/ 374 TOs) in the second half this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Suns have averaged 20.8 points in the paint per game (938 points/45 games) in the second half this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 24.1

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 3.8 blocks per game (314 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (400 blocks/106 games) on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (792 blocks/210 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0

The Heat averaged 3.4 blocks per game (280 blocks/82 games) in the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

Phoenix Suns Defensive Stats & Trends

The Suns have averaged 10.3 steals per game (464 steals/45 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.4

The Suns have averaged 33.0 defensive rebounds per game (1,486 rebounds/45 games) this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.0

The Suns averaged 36.4 defensive rebounds per game (2,982 rebounds/82 games) in the 2023-24 season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Suns averaged 6.0 blocks per game (491 blocks/82 games) in the 2023-24 season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1