Sam Connon analyzes which bets could hit in Tuesday’s game between the New Orleans Pelicans and Oklahoma City Thunder using DraftKings’ NBA Player Prop Trends Tracker.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are set to host the New Orleans Pelicans at the Paycom Center on Tuesday night, with tip-off scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. If you’re looking to build out a same-game parlay (SGP) of NBA player props for the crosstown affair, DraftKings has you covered. Using the NBA Player Props Trends Tracker, we weighed averages, matchup grades, home/road splits and recent patterns to make a three-leg parlay you can tail ahead of Pelicans vs. Thunder.
Best Shai Gilgeous-Alexander player prop for Pelicans vs. Thunder
Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander U 7.5 assists (-124)
While Shai Gilgeous-Alexander may be dishing out assists at the highest per-possession rate of his accomplished career, he is still averaging just 6.2 dimes per game. He has gone under Tuesday’s line of 7.5 assists in 73% of his games overall, including 14 of his 16 appearances since Christmas. And even when he has cleared that mark, SGA typically hasn’t gone over by very much, only recording nine-plus assists once in his last 32.
The Pelicans present Gilgeous-Alexander with a B-minus season matchup grade when it comes to his assist totals, per DraftKings. While he dished out 11 assists the last time he faced a B-minus matchup, he had three against a B and three against an A last week.
Best Saddiq Bey player prop for Pelicans vs. Thunder
Pick: Saddiq Bey O 1.5 three-pointers (-144)
Saddiq Bey is averaging 1.7 made three-pointers per game this season, going over 1.5 in 51% of his appearances. While those numbers may make Tuesday’s prop feel like a coin flip, Bey has hit three and six triples in his last two games – both of which were also on the road. Those outings came against C-minus and B-plus matchups, respectively, with Tuesday’s showdown with the Thunder constituting a B-minus.
Oklahoma City allows the fourth-most three-point field goals per game and fourth-highest three-point percentage in the NBA, which further bolsters the argument for a Bey breakout from deep. Alex Caruso and Ajay Mitchell – plus Isaiah Hartenstein – are all out as well, weakening an already vulnerable Thunder perimeter defense.
Best Trey Murphy III player prop for Pelicans vs. Thunder
Pick: Trey Murphy III O 1.5 steals (+175)
Early on in the season, Trey Murphy III was a steals machine. But after recording multiple steals in 10 of 12 games between mid-November and mid-December, he has cleared 1.5 just six times in his last 20 appearances. Murphy is now averaging 1.5 steals per game, going over 1.5 in 45% of his games on the whole this year. And yet, Murphy did notch two steals against the Pistons and three at the Grizzlies last week, getting him back on track before Tuesday’s game in Oklahoma City.
While the Thunder’s opponents are averaging the third-fewest steals per game this season – hence the F season matchup grade from DraftKings – Murphy notched three takeaways the last time he faced Oklahoma City. Murphy, who has a season-high of five steals, has also recorded four steals three times in the last five weeks. There is a high ceiling in play for Murphy on the defensive end, and you can get great value at plus odds.
Pelicans vs. Thunder SGP Parlay Odds: +650