Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Magic at Heat on Wednesday.

The Miami Heat are about to simulate the spring’s SoFi Play-In Tournament over their next five games. Miami is currently seeded seventh in the Eastern Conference. The Heat will host the eighth-seeded Orlando Magic tonight, and because of both scheduling quirks and a matchup postponed due to condensation on the court, they’ll then face the ninth-seeded Chicago Bulls three times in four nights, once at the United Center and twice at home. Miami will finish off on February 3 with a home date against the Atlanta Hawks.

The first game of the Heat’s Midseason Play-In Tournament will begin at 7:30 p.m. ET tonight at the Kaseya Center. Miami’s injury list is fairly long: Tyler Herro (ribs) remains out, with Davion Mitchell (shoulder), Norman Powell (back), and Kel’el Ware (hamstring) questionable. Orlando’s is much shorter, with only Franz Wagner (ankle) out.

Despite the injury questions, the Heat are 2.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-148 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 229.5. The Magic are +124 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down the Florida clash and offer my prediction.

Orlando Magic at Miami Heat preview, prediction

Over the last two weeks, Miami has been nothing if not inconsistent, alternating impressive wins (a 122-120 triumph over the Oklahoma City Thunder) with poor losses (a blowout at the hands of the Golden State Warriors in which it lost by 19 in the minutes after Jimmy Butler III tore his ACL). The inconsistency has extended to the players: Powell is hurting his chances of being named to his first All-Star team with three poor shooting performances in a row, Bam Adebayo has had seven elite games and an all-time 1/13 stinker, and Ware has missed some time. The volatility makes sense for a team that has settled near .500, but it makes the Heat a hard team to predict on a night-to-night basis.

Even Jalen Suggs’ return from injury couldn’t help Orlando stop its skid. Suggs missed 15 of the team’s 17 games between December 18 and January 22 with knee and hip contusions, and though he has by far the team’s best on-off plus/minus splits, the Magic have lost both of the games he’s played in since he returned, and he’s shot the ball extremely poorly. Wagner has pretty much been out with his high-ankle sprain since December 7, though he returned for two European games on January 15 and 18, and Orlando has needed him badly. Paolo Banchero has had an efficient shooting month and has increased his scoring average from 20.3 to 21.6, but the Magic have gone just 4-7.

Magic at Heat pick, best bet

Miami can always hang its hat on playing solid defense: it ranks 10th in defensive rating for the season. However, its offense can run hot and cold: through the end of November, the Heat had an above-average offense, but they’ve ranked in the bottom 10 ever since, including sixth-to-last in 2026. Powell’s persistent back soreness could be a reason he’s shot just 35.1% from downtown since December 19, which is definitely a factor in Miami’s lackluster offense, but his injury is unlikely to magically improve overnight, though he’s now had two days off to recover. Plus, it’s the front end of a home-road back-to-back, so I wouldn’t be surprised if at least one of the Heat’s questionable players sat. If Mitchell or Powell do, it’d be a massive loss: Miami’s offensive rating has been 5.2 points per 100 possessions better with Powell on the floor and 3.3 points per 100 possessions better with Mitchell out there.

Orlando has been even worse on offense since the start of the calendar year (26th) and significantly more porous on defense, but Suggs’ improved health should help with that some. While the 24-year-old’s primary calling card is his defense — he was named to the All-Defensive Second Team in 2023-24, his last fully healthy season — he’s had nearly as large an impact on the team’s offense, which has improved by 4.1 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor. I’m not too concerned about his poor offensive performances since his return, given that they’ve been driven by unsustainably inept finishing and bad three-point shooting luck. It’s worth noting that the last time a fully healthy Suggs faced the Heat without Wagner, his 20 points helped lead the Magic to a victory.

Neither of these teams has a notable edge on the interior, as each has allowed nearly the same percentage in both the restricted area and the non-restricted paint and shot similarly from both zones, though Orlando has been a slightly better rebounding team. Both teams have been good in transition on both sides of the ball, though Miami has been slightly better overall and would likely have an even greater impact in the passing lanes if Mitchell or Powell sat. Discipline could also be a major factor, and while the Heat have been extremely disciplined and the Magic less so, Orlando has also been one of the league’s best teams at drawing contact. Powell’s status could be a factor here, given that he leads Miami in free throw attempts per game and doesn’t commit many fouls himself.

Shooting-wise, the Heat definitely have the edge. Once again, the Magic rank near the bottom of the league in three-point percentage, but that hasn’t been the result of an unhealthy shot diet: they’ve produced more wide-open three-pointers than Miami has. Orlando just doesn’t have much raw shooting talent: by three-point percentage over expectation, Anthony Black, Wendell Carter Jr. and Banchero all rank in the league’s bottom 30, and because of Desmond Bane’s early-season shooting struggles, there isn’t a single healthy Magic rotation player who’s made more threes than expected. Meanwhile, Ware, Powell, and Andrew Wiggins all rank in the league’s top 50 in that stat. Defensively, both teams have also locked up, allowing among the fewest wide-open threes.

Since these teams are so evenly matched across the board, logic would suggest going with the home team, given that the net home court advantage is a swing of 6.1 points per 100 possessions in the Heat’s favor. However, home court advantage isn’t as likely to be as extreme tonight, given that travel and jet-lag is a non-factor, with the teams’ arenas just 200 miles apart. Plus, it’s just hard to ignore Orlando’s contender-level net rating with Suggs on the court (plus-7.1) and Miami’s with either Powell (plus-0.5) or Mitchell (minus-0.6) off. At +124, it’s worth a swing at the Magic on the Moneyline, especially since they’ve won each of the teams’ previous three games.

Best bet: Orlando Magic Moneyline (+124)