Alex Hunter breaks down his analysis, prediction and pick for Thursday’s matchup between the Suns and the Pistons.

The Suns are hosting the Pistons on Thursday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Detroit is favored by 4.5 points and this game carries a total of 214.5 points.

Let’s dive into my preview and pick for the game.

Suns vs. Pistons preview, prediction

The Suns are 28-19 and rank 11th in net rating this season, but Devin Booker (ankle) remains out, which is a huge problem for this club. The guard is leading Phoenix with 25.4 points and 6.2 assists per game, and is undoubtedly the Suns’ best player. With Booker inactive this season, Phoenix has looked like a totally different group with a 2-4 record, including a 108-105 loss to the same Pistons team the Suns will face tonight. With Booker off the floor, Phoenix’s net rating is at -0.8, which is 5.4 points per 100 possessions worse than with him on.

Tonight will be Booker’s third missed game in a row and in these past two with him sidelined, the Suns have lost to a Heat team that was on the second night of a back-to-back, 111-102, and Phoenix barely beat the Nets, 106-102. Brooklyn ranks 26th in net rating this season and heading into this matchup, the team had lost five straight games.

Dillon Brooks has elevated his game as a scorer with Booker absent, leading the Suns with 26 points in each of these last two. Additionally, Grayson Allen has scored 18 points in each of these past two, but as a whole, Phoenix has struggled mightily on offense with Booker missing, scoring only 102 and 106 points.

Jalen Green (questionable, hamstring) has a chance to play tonight and while on paper having him back would be a huge boost for the Suns’ offense, Green is unlikely to see much playing time if he suits up. The guard has only played in four games this season due to the nagging hamstring injury and in the last game Green played in and didn’t exit early due to injury, he only scored 12 points in 19 minutes off the bench. Green almost certainly won’t see more work than that tonight if he plays and him being active in general is a big question mark, as he has failed to play through a questionable tag in back-to-back games.

The Suns’ offensive struggles are very likely to continue tonight, especially when you consider who they are facing. Coming to town is the Eastern Conference’s top seeded Pistons, who pride themselves on the defensive end. Detroit ranks second in defensive rating this season, trailing on the defending champion Thunder. The Pistons are 34-11 and rank second in net rating overall.

Cade Cunningham leads the team and is a real MVP candidate. The guard is averaging 25.3 points, 9.8 assists and 5.7 rebounds per game, and on DraftKings Sportsbook, Cunningham carries the third-best odds to win MVP at +1200. Jalen Duren has also been great this season and possibly will make his first All-Star team. The center is averaging a career-high 17.6 PPG on 63% shooting, while also leading Detroit with 10.6 rebounds per game.

The Pistons have won eight of their last 10 and they are coming off a strong, road win over the Nuggets. Detroit has been excellent on the road all season with a 15-6 record, which is the third-best away record in the league. Meanwhile, the Suns boast the same exact 15-6 record at home, but this is rather irrelevant tonight, as Booker has been a part of all but one Phoenix’s home wins this season.

Suns vs. Pistons pick, best bet

The Suns are a well coached and prideful group, but with Booker missing, Phoenix simply is no match for the Pistons and Detroit should walk away with a road win tonight.

While the Pistons haven’t been great at covering on the road this season with a 10-11 ATS record, they deserve to be favorited by more than 4.5 points in this spot and I like backing them to cover.

Best Bet: Pistons -4.5 (-110)