The Athletic NBA staff offered up bold predictions for every team heading into the 2025-26 season. Three months later, some of those look spot on, while others might have been too bold.

Here’s a progress report on each prediction — from the great to the “Huh?” (Stats are entering Thursday’s games.)

Atlanta Hawks

Prediction: The Hawks will finish with a top-10 defense

Outlook: Not quite. The Hawks were 16th through 48 games, even with Trae Young only playing in 10 of them. Nickel Alexander-Walker’s arrival has indeed jazzed up the perimeter D, with NAW playing at an All-Defensive Team level, but the frontcourt is a different story. With Kristaps Porziņģis only playing 17 games and 6-foot-8 Onyeka Okongwu pressed into service as a starting center, the Hawks are too often way too small and lack rim deterrence. The Hawks are 24th in 2-point defense, and only one team has allowed a greater proportion of opponent shots to come at the rim. — John Hollinger

Boston Celtics

Prediction: Derrick White will make the All-Star Game

Outlook: Will White prove me right? Probably not, despite what Pacers coach Rick Carlisle recently said about how White deserves to make the All-Star Game. That’s one downside of shooting 39 percent from the field. Despite his sometimes rocky shooting, though, White has helped carry the Celtics to second place in the Eastern Conference. Plenty of advanced metrics suggest he is one of the game’s most impactful guards. He will have to settle for that if the voters can’t overlook his iffy shooting numbers. — Jay King

Brooklyn Nets

Prediction: The Nets will get a top-four pick

Outlook: The Nets are a little bit behind the pace. They have the fifth-worst record in the league, which gives them a 42.1 percent chance at a top-four pick. A 7-3 stretch to start December might have been great for morale, but it certainly hurt them in a very competitive bottom of the standings. The Nets are 5-30 otherwise, so maybe they’ll sink back to the bottom, even as Michael Porter Jr. plays well and Egor Demin shows signs of intrigue. We’ll see where the season goes, but they are helped by the fact that one of their competitors, New Orleans, doesn’t control its pick and has no incentive to lose games. — Mike Vorkunov

Charlotte Hornets

Prediction: The Hornets win 28 games

Outlook: The Hornets are trending well. They’re on pace for 35 or so wins and have shown big signs of improvement lately. They own the sixth-most efficient offense in the NBA this season, but it’s been the second-best since Dec. 15, and they’re 13-10 in that stretch. The Hornets have the 18th-hardest strength of schedule for the rest of the season, according to Tankathon, and if the improvement is sustainable, then the Play-In Tournament isn’t out of question; they’re only 2 1/2 games back of 10th-place Atlanta. — Mike Vorkunov

Chicago Bulls

Prediction: The Bulls won’t make the Play-In

Outlook: For what it’s worth, my reasons for this prediction remain. Nikola Vučević is still abysmal as a rim protector. If we’re not calling Matas Buzelis a wing, Chicago’s best wing is Isaac Okoro, its irrationally important summer addition to a team that needs to click on too many cylinders to win. And the youth movement, while more encouraging overall than recent Bulls teams, does not scream that the future is bright. But for all those reasons, the Bulls are actually firmly in contention for — surprise! — another Play-In berth. The Bulls are 10th in the East at 23-24. The high-octane system and what Billy Donovan extracts from players like Tre Jones and Jalen Smith ends up creating too high a floor to avoid the Play-In. Just not enough to meaningfully win yet. Sorry, Bulls fans. I should’ve been bolder. — Joel Lorenzi

Cleveland Cavaliers

Prediction: Lonzo Ball resurrects his career

Outlook: Ball has not been a good fit for the Cavs and is also having the worst shooting season of his career. He has also missed a bunch of games. He hasn’t been the right man for backup point guard on the Cavs because Darius Garland has been hurt all season. Ball needed a team that wouldn’t count on him so much (like Cleveland last year, when Ty Jerome thrived in fewer minutes for a healthy team). But it’s not just about fit. Ball has also really struggled with his play. So far, it looks like I didn’t get that one right. — Joe Vardon

Dallas Mavericks

Prediction: Defense will be good … but not elite

Outlook: I feel good about this. The Mavericks, who are ninth in points allowed per 100 possessions, defend at a high level but are nowhere near the Oklahoma City Thunder or the Detroit Pistons, the NBA’s first- and second-ranked defenses, respectively. Dallas’ goal, remember, was to be No. 1 in defense. The Mavericks’ biggest problem this season has been a predictable one: They struggle to score. They’re 27th in offense. Summer signing D’Angelo Russell was supposed to help there, but he’s been buried on the bench. — Christian Clark

Denver Nuggets

Prediction: The Nuggets will win the West

Outlook: This one obviously won’t be settled until spring, but the prediction is aging well. The Nuggets are very good. They are a deep team, skilled, talented and hungry. They have played without Nikola Jokić since essentially the new year and have fared well without him. With Jokić’s return almost imminent and the newfound depth around him, the Nuggets should have every opportunity to be the chief challenger to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference, though another Aaron Gordon hamstring injury is a tough blow. — Tony Jones

Detroit Pistons

Prediction: Cade Cunningham will finish top three in MVP voting

Outlook: It was almost as if I could see into the future. As things stand, I do have to pat myself on the back. Cunningham isn’t quite in the echelon of top three in MVP voting right now, but he certainly has a strong case. He’s an All-Star starter, seemingly on his way to a second consecutive All-NBA selection and the impetus of Detroit’s resurgence toward the top of the conference. If he can continue on this path and the Pistons can keep winning games, he should garner even more consideration for the award. — Hunter Patterson

Our October prediction for Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Golden State isn’t looking so great. (David Sherman / NBAE via Getty Images)

Golden State Warriors

Prediction: The Warriors will make it to at least the Western Conference finals

Outlook: Golden State was always going to need health to make this one happen, and when Jimmy Butler tore his ACL, that dream disappeared. Even before that season-altering injury, the Warriors never played to the level that they had hoped, although they won 12 of 16 and were starting to find consistency before Butler went down. The Warriors just don’t have enough pieces to compete at the highest levels without him. — Nick Friedell

Houston Rockets

Prediction: Alperen Şengün will finish second in triple-doubles

Outlook: This one isn’t going so well. Şengün is playing at an All-Star level, and he’s averaging a career-high 6.4 assists. He’s been as impactful as I expected him to be, but ha has only one triple-double. And that one came in a game that went to overtime. I wrote before the season that “I’d be surprised if he doesn’t get at least 15 triple-doubles.” Although his assist numbers are up, Şengün only has three games with 10 or more assists this season. The thought behind my prediction was correct. I just got a little ambitious. — William Guillory

Indiana Pacers

Prediction: Pacers get to the second round without Tyrese Haliburton

Outlook: Well, it was a bold prediction. After securing coach Rick Carlisle’s 999th career win in December, Indiana lost a franchise record 13 consecutive games. It took the Pacers a month to get Carlisle to 1,000 wins. The Pacers are near the bottom of the East, and every victory is a good one for morale. Pascal Siakam, who is playing some of the best basketball of his career, has spoken about the team’s lack of effort and energy, and they’re dealing with several injuries, not just Haliburton’s. While the playoffs — any round — are not happening, hopefully they can turn this Haliburton-less season around just a little. — Shakeia Taylor

LA Clippers

Prediction: LA will match its best 20-game start under Tyronn Lue

Outlook: Best start? How about the worst start under Lue? I hinted that the Clippers having slow starts was something the team was too familiar with. The Clippers didn’t just lean into that trend; they fell into the abyss, starting 5-15 before hitting rock bottom at 6-21. And of course, the Clippers restarted their season from there by winning 16 of 19 games. All I can do is shake my head and remind myself that the Clippers season doesn’t start until Christmas from now on. — Law Murray

Los Angeles Lakers

Prediction: LeBron James makes an All-NBA team

Outlook: (Eddie Vedder voice) “Ohhhhh, IIIIIII, Ohhhhh, I’m still alive!” LeBron is still eligible for All-NBA consideration and has started playing in back-to-backs. But I have zero margin for error. The next game he misses will push him under the 65-game awards threshold. And once he misses that game, the NBA will say (Eddie Vedder voice), “This is not for you.” — Dan Woike

Memphis Grizzlies

Prediction: Cam Spencer and PJ Hall end up in the rotation

Outlook: One for two! Spencer has indeed been a lifesaver at point guard in the wake of injuries to Ja Morant, Scotty Pippen Jr., Ty Jerome and Vince Williams. He’s shooting a scorching 44.5 percent from 3 and sported a 17.3 PER entering Thursday. While his shaky defense makes him a poor answer as a starter, Spencer’s shooting and playmaking combine to make his contract (three more years at the minimum) an absurd bargain after Memphis took the UConn product 53rd in the 2024 draft and kept him on a two-way deal last season. As for Hall, um … he’s no longer on the team after playing just 27 minutes across seven games. — John Hollinger

Miami Heat

Prediction: Nikola Jović challenges for Most Improved Player

Outlook: Well, this didn’t age well! Players such as Keyonte George, Peyton Watson, Jalen Johnson and Jalen Duren are the most viable candidates for Most Improved Player honors at this point. Jović’s development has stalled during his fourth season in the NBA. His 8.4 points per game are a decrease from last season’s scoring average of 10.7, which was a career high. But the decline in his efficiency has been jarring. Entering Wednesday, the 22-year-old is shooting only 37.6 percent overall and making just 29.4 percent of his 3s while knocking down only 69.9 percent of his free throws. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra remains confident in Jović’s development, so maybe MIP honors can wait a year. — James Jackson

Milwaukee Bucks

Prediction: The Bucks will make more 3s than any other team (outside of Boston).

Outlook: Heading into the season, the Bucks said all the right things about increasing their 3-point rate. In the preseason, they averaged 42.5 3-point attempts per game, a number that would have them third this season. But they didn’t follow through on that change. The Bucks have attempted 37.2 3s per game this season, which is the 15th-highest per-game average and less than one more 3 than they took per game last season (36.6) when they finished 18th in the category. The Bucks have dealt with many larger issues, especially the injuries to Giannis Antetokounmpo, but their inability to build a smarter tactical framework has been a disappointment. — Eric Nehm

Minnesota Timberwolves

Prediction: The Wolves will win the championship

Outlook: Yeah … about that. The Wolves looked like legitimate championship contenders earlier this month. At one point, they were 17-6 after Thanksgiving, the best record in the NBA, including wins over the Thunder, Spurs and Celtics. But they hit a major wall, with a five-game losing streak sapping any momentum. Their bench scoring and ballhandling really need to be upgraded by the trade deadline. Anthony Edwards has been great, and the Wolves have shown the potential to be a real problem in the West. Right now, they have real problems that need to be fixed. — Jon Krawczynski

New Orleans Pelicans

Prediction: Jordan Poole will break Pels’ single-season 3-point record

Outlook: This prediction is just as bad as Poole has been this season in a Pelicans uniform. I’ve got no excuses. And to make it worse, Trey Murphy is actually in a pretty good position to potentially break the single-season record if he averages at least three 3-pointers over the final 36 games. I promise this will be the last time Poole’s name makes it into my bold predictions. — William Guillory

New York Knicks

Prediction: New York will win the East

Outlook: While I still think New York is as talented as any team in the East, the prediction doesn’t look great as we sit here in January. The Knicks are closer to the Play-In Tournament than the No. 1 seed. They had a horrid stretch of basketball — 2-9 over an 11-game span — that doesn’t usually happen to championship-level teams. The East is still flimsy, and while Detroit has dominated, it still needs to prove itself in the postseason. The Pistons are by far the best team in the conference right now, but I don’t think it would be shocking if the Knicks still made it to the finals. — James L. Edwards III

Jalen Williams’ injury woes put a dent in our OKC forecast. (Adam Pantozzi / NBAE via Getty Images)

Oklahoma City Thunder

Prediction: Three Thunder players make All-NBA

Outlook: There is no longer any chance this prediction can come true, largely due to injuries. Jalen Williams has missed most of the year and thus is ineligible for postseason honors. He’s spent most of his time on the court trying to rediscover his All-NBA groove from last season. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the MVP favorite again. And if Chet Holmgren wins Defensive Player of the Year on the best team in the league, voters may feel compelled to add him to All-NBA. But the Thunder can’t get a third guy. — Fred Katz

Orlando Magic

Prediction: The Magic will finish third in the East

Outlook: So far, my prediction has been off-target, and it’s looking more and more off-target all the time. On Wednesday, the Magic broke a four-game losing streak; because their next three games will be against the Raptors, Spurs and Thunder, things are likely to get worse before they improve. Franz Wagner recently aggravated the high-ankle sprain he returned from just before the team’s trip to Europe. The offense has improved year-over-year, but the Magic still cannot count on their offense in the half court, where the ball movement and player movement haven’t been good enough. Their 3-point shooting percentage has deteriorated and entered Wednesday 29th leaguewide. Injuries again have been a major problem, with Wagner, Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs missing significant time. The absences of Wagner and Suggs have impacted the defense, which hasn’t been what it was the last two seasons. Orlando still will have an opportunity to compete for a top-six finish and avoid the East Play-In, but it has a lot to correct. — Josh Robbins

Philadelphia 76ers

Prediction: Joel Embiid will play 58 games and be the healthiest he’s been in years

Outlook: If anyone needs lottery numbers or a palm reading, I’m available. As of now, my prediction is aging like wine. Embiid has played in 26 of a possible 46 games. So, he might not make it to 58. But he has been relatively healthy, and he is playing at an All-Star level. He has been on a tear in January, and he looks relatively like the MVP version of himself. — Tony Jones

Phoenix Suns

Prediction: They’ll win more games than last season

Outlook: Considering the Suns had 36 wins last season, I feel good about this. My problem: I was not bold enough. I did not anticipate Dillon Brooks having this kind of impact. I did not expect Collin Gillespie to have a breakout season. I did not anticipate Mark Williams staying healthy. And I had no idea Jordan Ott would be this good in his first season as an NBA head coach. A lot can go wrong. Devin Booker is out with an ankle sprain. Jalen Green has played in only four games because of a hamstring problem that will not go away. If Phoenix can stay healthy, this could be a dangerous team. — Doug Haller

Portland Trail Blazers

Prediction: Yang Hansen is runner-up in Rookie of the Year voting

Outlook: Oooof. Count me as guilty for drinking the Kool-Aid. Not only is the rookie center from China not going to get any votes, but he isn’t even the best rookie on the Blazers. Caleb Love has been far more impactful, as Yang has played his way out of the rotation with ineffective minutes, particularly on defense. He looked intriguing during his summer league outings against 6-foot-9 competition, but the NBA has proved to be a level for which he is not yet prepared. It’s not fair to judge a pick halfway through one season, but knowing the Blazers could have drafted Cedric Coward or Derik Queen, but instead chose to take this project, is the biggest blemish on what has been a glowing season of progress in Portland. — Jason Quick

Sacramento Kings

Prediction: Russell Westbrook will help (and they need it)

Outlook: Sam nailed this prediction on both counts. Westbrook does greatly help this season. He’s second in total points, second in total minutes, first in total assists, first in total steals and first in total rebounds for the Kings. He’s even made the most 3-pointers on the team because he’s shooting it unusually well (35 percent) compared to the rest of his career. And the Kings need it because they stink. This is one of the worst teams in the league. Injuries have ravaged them, and Westbrook is trying his best to mitigate that. — Zach Harper

San Antonio Spurs

Prediction: Victor Wembanyama will make the top three in MVP voting

Outlook: Wembanyama’s MVP chances are looking dim for several reasons. The most obvious is that he has missed 14 games, putting him five missed games from disqualification. Then there is the team’s success without him, making it hard to argue he is more valuable than other superstars when his team has a similar record when he’s on the shelf. However, his actual performance has been impressive enough to be an All-Star starter, but it clearly needs plenty of improvement to be among the best in the league. His talent continues to inspire awe, and he clearly looks on track to be in the running for best player in the league soon, but he’ll need to take a big step forward in consistency to get back in the MVP race. — Jared Weiss

Toronto Raptors

Prediction: Brandon Ingram will be an All-Star (and Scottie Barnes won’t)

Outlook: Things look … plausible? To be clear, I believe Barnes should be an All-Star, and Ingram would be on my medium-length list of Eastern Conference also-rans. But Ingram got more votes than Barnes from both fans and players when the starters were announced, although neither was close to earning a spot through that process. Coaches, who vote for the reserves, also likely spend more time thinking about how to stop Ingram than Barnes, since the former is the highest-usage player and leading scorer on the Raptors and the key to their half-court offense. Ultimately, I think Barnes will get in via the coaches’ vote and Ingram will not, but I stand by this prediction as well-reasoned. — Eric Koreen

Utah Jazz

Prediction: Lauri Markkanen will be traded by the deadline

Outlook: This looks good if you’re a Jazz fan because it does not seem likely at all that the Jazz will trade the Finnish forward. I figured they’d dive deep into tanking, but that doesn’t seem to be the case. They’re bad, but not “putting an abhorrent product on the floor” bad. They may revisit this in the summer, but the Jazz seem intent on putting a good mix of young players and a few veterans around Markkanen … for now. — Zach Harper

Washington Wizards

Prediction: The Wizards’ leading scorer will average under 20.0 points per game

Outlook: This prediction has proven correct so far. CJ McCollum was averaging a team-high 18.8 points per game when he was traded to the Hawks. What the prediction doesn’t capture, however, is Alex Sarr’s improvement. The second-year center is averaging 17.7 points per game, but that figure doesn’t fully reflect the all-around growth. Under coach Brian Keefe, the Wizards have created an offense predicated on ball movement and player movement. The players share the ball. That’s a positive sign for the franchise going forward. — Josh Robbins