Sean Barnard details his preview and prediction for Sunday’s Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets NBA matchup.
Closing down tonight’s 10-game NBA slate, the Oklahoma City Thunder will face off with the Denver Nuggets in a heavyweight Western Conference clash.
This will be the first of four games between these two teams this season. Nikola Jokic made his return to the floor for the Nuggets in the previous game after being sidelined for the previous 16 games, and picked up right where he left off.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Thunder are 7.5-point favorites and hold -258 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Nuggets hold +210 odds of winning in their own right, with the game total set at O/U 224.5 points.
This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Sunday night matchup.
Thunder at Nuggets Preview
The Oklahoma City Thunder remain at the top of the Western Conference with a 38-11 record on the year. However, they have hit a bit of a lull in the mid portion of the season after looking to have a chance at a historic regular-season record. Oklahoma City enters this matchup having lost three of its past four games. On the season, the Thunder are 23-26 against the spread, and the game total has gone under in 25 of their 49 games played.
Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso, Ajay Mitchell, Thomas Sorber, and Nikola Topic remain sidelined for the Thunder. Reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to headline the production, posting averages of 32.0 points, 6.2 assists, and 4.4 rebounds. Chet Holmgren adds 17.8 points and 8.6 rebounds, while Lu Dort, Isaiah Hartenstein, Cason Wallace, and Aaron Wiggins each play key roles in the rotation.
Oklahoma City leads the NBA in scoring at 120.3 points per game. They rank fourth in offensive rating, third in team field-goal percentage, 15th in three-point percentage, and 17th in pace. The Thunder are also holding opponents to the fewest points per game, at 108.0 per contest. They lead the league in defensive rating, hold teams to the worst field goal percentage, and force the most turnovers. Oklahoma City does struggle to guard the perimeter, as they rank 25th in three-point attempts allowed and 27th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Nikola Jokic made his return to the floor in the previous game and picked up right where he left off. The three-time MVP dropped 31 points, 12 rebounds, and five assists in just 24:32 of game action. He will likely take some time to scale up his full workload, but the Nuggets deserve credit for producing results without their superstar. Denver went 10-6 in the 16 games without Jokic. On the season, the Nuggets are 33-16 and remain in second place in the Western Conference. They are 29-20 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 30 of their 49 games played.
As a team, Denver ranks second in the league in scoring at 120.1 points per game. They lead the NBA in offensive rating, rank second in field goal percentage, first in three-point percentage, and 26th in pace. Defensively, opponents are scoring 115.6 points per game against the Nuggets, which ranks 14th in the league. They rank 24th in defensive rating, 16th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and sixth in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Jokic is officially listed as probable, while Aaron Gordon and Cameron Johnson remain sidelined. Christian Braun is considered doubtful with a left ankle sprain. On the season, Jokic is averaging 29.7 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 10.8 assists per game. Jamal Murray deserves credit for helping keep this team afloat, posting averages of 25.8 points, 7.4 assists, and 4.3 rebounds, while shooting 44.7% on three-point attempts. Peyton Watson has had a breakout season, while Tim Hardaway Jr, Jonas Valanciunas, and Bruce Brown have played important roles in the rotation.
Thunder at Nuggets Prediction, Best Bet
Both these teams hold legitimate title aspirations, and this very well could be a Western Conference Finals preview. Each side is also dealing with some noteworthy injuries that change their outlook.
However, the Nuggets enter this game with some momentum and are catching the Thunder at a good time. Oklahoma City will get back to being a dominant team when it gets back to full strength. But they have greatly felt the absence of Jalen Williams as their second on-ball creator. Williams has struggled even when he has been on the court this season, which has left some extreme responsibility on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s shoulders. The metrics still largely look impressive, but Oklahoma City has shown some vulnerabilities of late. They lost to the Timberwolves in the previous game, beat the Pelicans before this, and dropped back-to-back games to the Pacers and Raptors prior to this.
For so long, the conversation around the Nuggets has been based on the massive responsibilities that Nikola Jokic carries for the team to function as designed. But as he was sidelined for the past stretch, several players stepped up and have made it evident that this is one of the best supporting casts that Jokic has had around him. The seven-time All-Star did not miss a beat upon his return and should see his minutes expanded a bit in his second game back. Denver will have home court advantage in this matchup, with the altitude factor continuing to provide an advantage for the Nuggets.
These two teams have played each other tough throughout the past few years. The underdog has covered the spread in each of the last 12 games between these two teams. Oklahoma City has also failed to cover the spreading seven of their last eight night games against Nuggets teams with a winning record.
Oklahoma City is in a funk, and Denver is primed to take advantage of this. The Nuggets should be viewed as live underdogs in this matchup, and I am backing them to cover the 7.5-point spread. Count on Jokic to continue to assert himself as expected and for the Nuggets to capitalize on the Thunder’s poor three-point defense. The +210 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook feel worth taking a chance on, and I am locking in the +7.5-point spread in favor of the Nuggets.