For the third consecutive season, the Ohio State men’s basketball team is inching closer to the NCAA Tournament time and finds itself firmly on the cut line. In college basketball, the gray area many middling teams exist in from February to early March is affectionately known as “the bubble.” The NCAA Tournament bubble is purgatory for fans – one win or loss can flip your position from “in” to “out” or vice versa, and that can persist for the entire final five weeks of the season.
Even now, with at least 11 games remaining, Ohio State fans are feeling the heat – every loss, regardless of opponent, feels like the weight of the world is on their shoulders. A loss to a ranked team in February – even if it was a close loss – feels like the final straw to fans who are starving for the tiniest taste of the NCAA Tournament.
For Ohio State fans, it’s been four years since the Buckeyes last reached the big dance. There’s a possibility that the entire 2026 graduating class at Ohio State could graduate without ever getting to see their school’s name on an NCAA Tournament bracket. Fortunately, there’s still plenty of time for the Buckeyes to strengthen their position in the NCAA Tournament. Plus, other teams can help out, too.
Back in 2018, the NCAA debuted the NET rankings, which breaks each team’s wins into “quads.” This system gives us a more tangible way to compare resumes, especially when deciding between several middle-of-the-pack teams for the final few at-large bids. Those wins and losses can move back and forth between Quads, too, based on how a team’s opponents perform over the course of the rest of the season.
For example, if Ohio State beats a team in December on the road, that win could be a “Quad-1” win at the time. But if that team goes on a 10-game losing streak, they’re likely going to fall in the NET rankings, and that win will be devalued as the season goes on. Conversely, if Ohio State beats a team in December at home who is not playing well at the time, but goes on a 10-game winning streak later, that win could start as a “Quad-2” or “Quad-3” win. but later upgrade if that team is playing well. College basketball resumes are fluid, and at the end of the season, a bunch of people in suits behind closed doors will be comparing Ohio State’s resume to several others, trying to figure out who deserves those final few spots in the NCAA Tournament.
So, for the convenience of all, I’ve put together a quick outline of Ohio State’s schedule this season, and broke it down into four categories:
Wins that aren’t going to reclassifyWins that could potentially reclassify (Keep an eye on these teams)Losses that aren’t going to reclassifyLosses that could potentially reclassify (Keep an eye on these teams)
The categories are subjective. If I don’t think a team is going to change drastically, I’m leaving it. Sure, Illinois could go on a six-game losing streak and cause Ohio State’s home loss to the Illini to reclassify to Quad-2, but I’m willing to bet that doesn’t happen.
The NET rankings used were as of 8:30 P.M. ET, Monday, February 2, 2026.
If you want a refresher on the classification requirements in the quad system, you can check that out here.
Wins that aren’t going to reclassify
These teams aren’t going to move enough in February for these wins to change at all. Lock them in.
IU Indy (November 3) – QUAD 4
Purdue Fort Wayne (November 7) – QUAD 4
Appalachian State (November 11) – QUAD 4
Western Michigan (November 20) – QUAD 4
Mount St. Mary’s (November 25) – QUAD 4
Grambling State (December 23) – QUAD 4
Rutgers (January 2) – QUAD 3
Wins that could reclassify
These teams’ NET rankings could rise or fall enough to change how the win is classified, which could help or hurt Ohio State’s NCAA Tournament resume.
Notre Dame (November 16) – QUAD 3…. but could become QUAD 2?
Notre Dame is currently 85 in the NET rankings. If the Fighting Irish climb to 75 or higher, this win will upgrade to a Quad-2 win.
Northwestern (December 6) – QUAD 1…. but could become QUAD 2?
Northwestern is currently 71 in the NET rankings. If the Wildcats fall to 76 or lower, this win will downgrade to a Quad-2 win.
West Virginia (December 13) – QUAD 2…. but could become QUAD 1?
West Virginia is currently 66 in the NET rankings. If the Mountaineers climb to 50 or higher, this win will upgrade to a Quad-1 win.
Oregon (January 8) – QUAD 2…. but could become QUAD 3?
Oregon is currently 116 in the NET rankings. If the Ducks drop to 136 or lower, this win will downgrade to a Quad-3 win.
UCLA (January 17) – QUAD 2…. but could become QUAD 1?
UCLA is currently 44 in the NET rankings. If the Bruins climb to 30 or higher, this will upgrade to a Quad-1 win.
Minnesota (January 20) – QUAD 3…. but could become QUAD 2?
Minnesota is currently 83 in the NET rankings. If the Gophers climb to 75 or higher, this win will upgrade to a Quad-2 win.
Penn State (January 26) – QUAD 3…. but could become QUAD 4?
Penn State is currently 130 in the NET rankings. If the Nittany Lions drop to 161 or lower, this win will downgrade to a Quad-4 win.
Losses that aren’t going to reclassify
These teams aren’t going to move enough for these losses to change. They are will remain on Ohio State’s resume.
Illinois (December 9) — QUAD 1
North Carolina (December 20) — QUAD 1
Nebraska (January 5) — QUAD 1
Michigan (January 23) — QUAD 1
Wisconsin (January 31) — QUAD 1
Losses that could reclassify
These teams’ NET rankings could fall enough to change how the loss is classified, which could hurt Ohio State’s NCAA Tournament resume.
Pitt (November 28) – QUAD 2…. but could become QUAD 3?
Pitt is currently 111 in the NET rankings. If the Panthers drop to 136 or lower, this loss will downgrade to a Quad-3 loss.
Washington (January 11) — QUAD 1…. but could become QUAD 2?
Washington is currently 47 in the NET rankings. If the Huskies drop to 76 or lower, this loss will downgrade to a Quad-2 loss.