Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Suns at Trail Blazers on Tuesday.

The Western Conference has seen quite the shake-up already as Thursday’s NBA trade deadline approaches: the Memphis Grizzlies, who had been one spot out of the Play-In Tournament picture, traded star forward Jaren Jackson Jr. to the Utah Jazz for salary filler and three first-round picks, so they’ll likely fall in the standings. That would make the seventh-seeded Phoenix Suns and 10th-seeded Portland Trail Blazers’ positions in the Play-In Tournament picture more secure.

Those teams will face each other tonight at 11 p.m. ET in Portland, though both teams’ injury reports should be monitored closely in case either team makes a trade. The Trail Blazers have been linked to moving point guard Jrue Holiday, in part to help facilitate a Giannis Antetokounmpo deal. Phoenix, which has over-achieved isn’t expected to be particularly active, but it could make a few moves around the fringes.

Newly-minted five-time All-Star Devin Booker (ankle) remains out for the Suns, and Jalen Green (hamstring) is questionable. For Portland, newly-minted one-time All-Star Deni Avdija (back) and Scoot Henderson (hamstring) are out and Holiday (personal) is questionable. The Trail Blazers also have their expected long-term absentees: Damian Lillard (Achilles), Kris Murray (back), and Matisse Thybulle (knee).

Phoenix is a 2.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook (-135 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 218.5. Portland is +114 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down the night’s final offering.

Phoenix Suns at Portland Trail Blazers preview, prediction

Though it was Booker who ultimately earned the All-Star nod, the fact that the Suns have gone a solid 3-3 since his latest injury and picked up wins over the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers in the process suggests that Phoenix’s success has been more a team effort than Booker’s alone. Dillon Brooks arguably had an All-Star case in his own right, averaging a career-high 21.1 points per game. Mark Williams has stayed fully healthy for the first time in his career, providing 24.0 minutes of solid interior play per game and posting 65-100-78 shooting splits (on only one three-point attempt).

The Trail Blazers, meanwhile, have had a rough last week-plus, as they’re currently on a five-game losing streak, tied for the third-longest stretch of futility in the league. To be fair, four of the five teams they’ve faced in that span are currently in the playoff picture, and two of the defeats came on the road, but Portland is clearly trending in the wrong direction. The bright side for the Trail Blazers overall is that Donovan Clingan has made the expected second-season improvements, and Shaedon Sharpe and Jerami Grant have provided enough additional scoring punch to supplement Avdija’s improvement.

Suns at Trail Blazers pick, best bet

The Suns have slipped a little bit offensively without Booker’s shot-making, dropping to 21st in offensive rating across the six games since he went out, but maintaining an average defense across that span has allowed Phoenix to get tough wins. All in all, the Suns have been 4.8 points per 100 possessions worse without Booker on the floor, but their defense has improved slightly and they’ve moved the ball better. Green has played only five games this season (two starts) after sustaining back-to-back hamstring injuries, but if he’s able to play tonight, Phoenix might be able to make up some of that offensive difference.

As for Portland, it has slipped drastically on offense without Avdija. With the wing on the floor, the Trail Blazers have had the equivalent of the league’s fourth-best offense, but without him, their offense would be 3.4 points per 100 possessions less efficient than the next-worst team’s. They’ve made up for it somewhat defensively, improving by 6.5 points per 100 possessions without him, but there’s no question that they’re better off with Avdija. Losing Avdija’s slashing ability could be an especially big issue against the Suns, whose main defensive vulnerability is the fact that they’ve allowed the fifth-highest percentage in the restricted area and aren’t as formidable on the glass without Booker. Portland’s efficiency could go slightly up — Avdija’s conversion rate at the rim is lower than the team’s average — but its volume will go way down.

Even without Avdija, the Trail Blazers could hang tough on the glass. This season, Portland ranks fifth in the league in rebounding percentage and second in second-chance points per game, and Clingan — not Avdija — is the biggest reason for that. Meanwhile, though Phoenix is an above-average offensive rebounding team, ranking seventh in second-chance points per game, it hasn’t been so good on the defensive glass. The Suns make up for that in transition, as they’ve been better than the Trail Blazers off of turnovers and on the fast-break on both sides of the ball. Portland has a massive edge in free-throw differential, but that could be mitigated somewhat tonight with Avdija, one of the league’s premier contact-drawers, out of action.

The main concern for the Trail Blazers is that they can neither shoot efficiently nor defend opposing shooters. This season, Portland has given up the sixth-most wide-open three-point tries, and though it has also generated the third-most on offense, it has converted such shots at the fifth-lowest rate, which is as much a product of roster construction as it is of poor luck. Phoenix has also done a good job generating wide-open tries, and between Green, Grayson Allen, and Collin Gillespie, it has the knockdown shooters to take advantage of them. The Suns’ defense isn’t a result of luck, as they’ve limited opponents to the second-fewest wide-open threes.

All in all, Phoenix probably has a slight edge, but the real winner here is each team’s defense. Though 218.5 points is a low line, three of each team’s last five games have gone under those games’ point totals, and four of the Suns’ last five have contained fewer than 218 points. Without Booker, Phoenix is down one of the shooters necessary to take advantage of the Trail Blazers’ defensive style, and without Avdija, Portland will be unable to exploit the Suns’ weakness in the paint.

Best bet: Under 218.5 (-112)