The Boilers return back to Mackey Arena for what many hope will be another good tune-up ahead of a stretch of games that will determine not only their ability to win the B1G but if Purdue can continue to be a legitimate 1 seed or if they’ll remain in that 3 or 4 seed.
The Ducks have been a bit of a disappointment so far this season, going just 8-14 and having lost 8 straight (and you thought Purdue’s 3 game losing streak was bad!). They are led by Nate Bittle but the Ducks have suffered through a lot of injuries to key players like Jackson Shelstad.
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Let’s get into a by the numbers preview!
9
Entering the season, Purdue knew what it had in guys like Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, CJ Cox, and Gicarri Harris from behind the arc. They also felt like they had a good handle on the kind of scorers that Benter and Mayer could eventually be as well. This should be one of the best three point shooting teams in the country and although they have been very good at 38.8% as a team, it just seems like they aren’t shooting up to their ability. I know that’s a crazy thing to say when looking at that team percentage but I think most Purdue fans would agree with that sentiment.
In games where Purdue hits 9 threes, they are 12-0 with an average margin of victory of 21.8. That drops significantly when Purdue doesn’t get to that mark as they are just 6-4 and have a 6.2 average margin of victory. It just goes to show how important the shots beyond the arc are for Purdue this season and how that can help setup the big men inside by forcing more one on one opportunities.
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66
As stated prior to the Illinois game, Purdue just seems to get things rolling on both ends when the tempo ramps up just a bit more than it typically looks. The stats back that up as Purdue is currently 11-0 when the Boilermakers have 66 or more possessions during the course of the game. That is supported by the fact Purdue is winning those games by an average of 20.7 points per game as opposed to just 8.6 when they don’t hit that possession number while going 7-4.
Smith is likely the best open court passer and if Purdue can get itself out into transition while remaining their efficient selves, it puts an exponentially higher amount of pressure on their opponent to play perfect. Ultimately, most teams can’t and Purdue’s ability to ramp up the tempo to very quick killshot type runs (10-0) can bury a team’s confidence to stay with them.
20
Purdue is at their best when they are sharing the ball at a high level. Yes, we all want to see Braden be more selfish at times and go get his points. That isn’t always conducive to the best way that Purdue can win a game, but that’s for a much different conversation at some point in time.
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Purdue is on track to break their program single-season record for assists of 720, if they are able to get multiple games in both the B1G and NCAA tourneys. As a team, Purdue ranks 3rd in the country with 20 assists per game and that places them ahead of schedule for that record that was set in the 2023-2024 season (18.5 per game). Purdue would need to play five total post-season games, at their current rate, to break that single season record.
More importantly, that 20 assists per game mark is indicative of either a big time Braden Smith game or that the offense is sharing the ball at an elite level. Either way, it’s a major key to the success Purdue has on the court and if they win or not.