Feb. 7, 2026, 9:46 a.m. ET

The Houston Rockets (31-19) and Oklahoma City Thunder (40-12) meet Saturday. Tip-off from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, is set for 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Rockets vs. Thunder odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Thunder lead 2-0

Houston was handed a 109-99 loss by the Charlotte Hornets Thursday, failing to cover as a 4.5-point home favorite with the Under (218.5) cashing. F Kevin Durant finished with 31 points to carry the Rockets, as only 1 of his teammates scored in double figures in the loss. The Hornets hit 17 3-pointers to Houston’s 8, also scoring 27 points off Houston’s turnovers Thursday.

Oklahoma City lost 116-106 to the San Antonio Spurs Wednesday as a 10-point road underdog as the Over (221.5) hit. G Kenrich Williams led OKC with 25 points in a game where the Thunder were missing 4 of their usual starters. The Thunder were dominated 56-26 in paint points by San Antonio. The Thunder have lost 4 of their last 7 games, scoring under 110 points in 2 of their last 3 losses.

The Thunder dominated Houston 111-91 Jan. 15 while covering as 4.5-point road favorites, and the Under (221.5) hit. The Rockets were held to 34% shooting from the field and 29% shooting from deep against OKC, and no Rocket even put up 20 points in the loss.

Watch the NBA on Fubo!Rockets at Thunder odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:45 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Rockets +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Thunder -140 (bet $140 to win $100)Against the spread (ATS): Rockets +2.5 (-110) | Thunder -2.5 (-110)Over/Under (O/U): 214.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)Rockets at Thunder key injuries

Rockets

C Steven Adams (ankle) outF Jae’Sean Tate (wrist) outG Fred VanVleet (knee) out

Thunder

G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (abdominal) outG Ajay Mitchell (abdominal) outF Jalen Williams (hamstring) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Rockets at Thunder picks and predictionsPrediction

Rockets 104, Thunder 95

BET ROCKETS (+115).

Both teams have struggled recently, but only 1 is missing both of its best players. With Gilgeous-Alexander out, the Thunder will be missing nearly all of their offensive creation, especially in the halfcourt. Look for the Rockets to force a lot of turnovers and expect many OKC possessions to take over 20 seconds in this matchup. On the other side, watch for Houston to get out in transition and be very aggressive defensively to make these Thunder role players uncomfortable.

PASS.

I expect Houston to cover the spread as a +2.5 (-110) underdog, but I like the Rockets’ odds better on the moneyline, as the risk of betting the moneyline for the potential higher payout is worth it with Gilgeous-Alexander out. Pass here and bet on the spread and/or total instead.

BET UNDER 214.5 (-115).

The Under is 8-2 in Houston’s last 10 games, including hitting in 2 of its last 3 road games. The Under is also 29-21 for the Rockets this season.

Both teams are strong defensively, while Houston’s offense stalls late in games and OKC’s offense is ineffective without Gilgeous-Alexander, so look for the Under to be the safer bet here.

Be aware that the Over is 7-3 in Oklahoma City’s last 10 games and 7-3 in the last 10 matchups between these squads.

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