Jazz vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props

Heat vs Jazz Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Monday‘s game with 76.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Jazz and Heat.

Heat vs Jazz Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Jazz will cover the spread for Monday‘s game with 68.2% confidence.

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Jazz Best Bets for Tonight:

The Utah Jazz have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 away games (+14.20 Units / 82% ROI)

The Utah Jazz have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 45 games (+11.40 Units / 23% ROI)

The Utah Jazz have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 18 of their last 25 games (+10.90 Units / 37% ROI)

The Utah Jazz have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 18 of their last 25 games (+9.80 Units / 34% ROI)

The Utah Jazz have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 31 of their last 50 games (+9.60 Units / 16% ROI)

Heat Best Bets for Tonight:

The Miami Heat have covered the 1H Spread in 32 of their last 45 games (+18.10 Units / 35% ROI)

The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 29 of their last 45 games at home (+13.60 Units / 18% ROI)

The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 24 of their last 35 games at home (+11.30 Units / 28% ROI)

The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+11.00 Units / 41% ROI)

The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 games (+10.10 Units / 16% ROI)

Utah Jazz Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Jazz have gone 29-24 (+2.6 Units / 4.46% ROI).

16-37 against the Moneyline (+2.95 Units / 5.29% ROI)

32-21 against the Over for game total points (+8.9 Units / 15.27% ROI)

21-32 against the Under for game total points (-14.2 Units / -24.36% ROI)

Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 30-23 (+4.7 Units / 7.91% ROI).

28-26 against the Moneyline (+0.2 Units / 0.22% ROI)

27-26 against the Over for game total points (-1.6 Units / -2.69% ROI)

26-27 against the Under for game total points (-3.7 Units / -6.23% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:

The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 40 games (-22.75 Units / -42% ROI)

The Miami Heat have only covered the 3Q Spread in 14 of their last 45 games (-21.75 Units / -42% ROI)

The Miami Heat have only covered the 2H Spread in 16 of their last 45 games (-17.70 Units / -34% ROI)

The Miami Heat have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 16 of their last 45 games (-16.69 Units / -27% ROI)

The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 35 games at home (-16.65 Units / -41% ROI)

Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Jazz:

The Utah Jazz have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 18 of their last 50 games (-17.15 Units / -30% ROI)

The Utah Jazz have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 18 of their last 50 games (-16.95 Units / -30% ROI)

The Utah Jazz have only covered the 1Q Spread in 11 of their last 35 away games (-16.40 Units / -41% ROI)

The Utah Jazz have only hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 45 games (-15.90 Units / -32% ROI)

The Utah Jazz have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 25 games (-13.60 Units / -48% ROI)

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Utah Jazz: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Jazz are winless (0-7) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .573

The Jazz were winless (0-5) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line in the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .414

The Jazz were 6-22 (.214) when attempting 25 or more free throws last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .551

The Jazz are winless (0-6) when assisting on fewer than 20 field goals since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .228

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Utah Jazz

The Heat were 10-1 (.909) when winning the rebounding margin by 10 or more last season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .762

The Heat are 29-5 (.853) when winning the rebounding margin by 10 or more since the start of the 2023-24 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .760

The Heat were 28-14 (.667) when they win the turnover margin in the 2023-24 season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .549

The Heat are 47-9 (.839) when assisting on 30 or more field goals since the start of the 2023-24 season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .706

Utah Jazz Offensive Stats & Trends

The Jazz averaged 17.2 turnovers per game (1,412 turnovers/82 games) last season — highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.3

The Jazz averaged 15.7 turnovers per game (1,285 turnovers/82 games) in the 2023-24 season — highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.6

The Jazz have averaged 16.3 turnovers per game (3,512 turnovers/216 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.1

The Jazz averaged 8.6 turnovers per game (703 turnovers/82 games) in the second half last season — highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.1

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 10.6 fast break points per game (549 points/52 games) in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.0

The Heat have averaged 27.6 points in the paint per game (1,434 points/52 games) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 24.1

The Heat averaged 1.19 points per shot (1,213 points/1,016 shots) in close and late situations last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.31

The Heat had an eFG% of 49% in close and late situations in the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 53%

Utah Jazz Defensive Stats & Trends

The Jazz allowed opponents to shoot 41% from three (652/1,570) in the first half in the 2023-24 season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 37%

The Jazz averaged 6.8 steals per game (555 steals/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.2

The Jazz have allowed an average of 1.43 points per shot (3,242 points/2,268 shots) in the second half this season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 1.31

The Jazz have allowed 126.8 points per game (6,593 points/52 games) this season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 115.6

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 3.4 blocks per game (280 blocks/82 games) in the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (812 blocks/216 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0

The Heat averaged 3.8 blocks per game (314 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (407 blocks/108 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1