Alex Hunter breaks down his analysis, prediction and pick for Monday’s matchup between the Lakers and the Thunder.
The Lakers are hosting the Thunder on Monday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Oklahoma City is favored by 6.5 points and this game carries a total of 223.5 points.
Let’s dive into my preview and pick for the game.
Lakers vs. Thunder Preview
The Thunder blew out the Lakers 121-92 in Oklahoma City back in November and tonight will be the second of five matchups between the clubs this season. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic were available for that first matchup, but both superstars will be inactive tonight, as Gilgeous-Alexander is dealing with an abdominal strain and Doncic is dealing with a hamstring strain.
The defending champion Thunder are in the midst of a very uncharacteristic stretch for the team, as they have lost five of their last eight. Gilgeous-Alexander has missed each of the past two and Oklahoma City lost both of these contests, losing 116-106 to the Spurs and then 112-106 to the Rockets. The guard is having another MVP type season, averaging 31.8 points, 6.4 assists and 4.4 rebounds per game, and he leads the team in plus/minus. With Gilgeous-Alexander off the floor, the Thunder’s net rating drops to 4.7, compared to 15.5 with him on. 4.7 is still a strong net rating, as it would rank sixth in the NBA if it was Oklahoma City’s average for the season, but still, Gilgeous-Alexander’s absence can’t be understated.
Jalen Williams will be back tonight after missing the past 10 with a hamstring injury and while having the forward back certainly helps fill the void left behind by Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams should be limited to less than 30 minutes tonight. He, Chet Holmgren and Aaron Wiggins will act as the Thunder’s main scorers, as the team looks to avoid their first three-game losing streak since April of the 2024 season.
The Lakers enter this matchup as winners of three in a row and seven of their last 10. Doncic missed their last game, Saturday vs. the Warriors, but Los Angeles defeated the shorthanded Golden State team that was without Stephen Curry (knee) 105-99. LeBron James flirted with a triple-double, and Austin Reaves, Marcus Smart and Rui Hachimura all added at least 15 points.
It was an encouraging, well balanced win by the Lakers and they will need a similar, collective effort tonight if they want to defeat the Thunder. While Reaves is still just limited to a bench role, as he works his way back from a calf injury that costed him over a month of action, the guard’s return has been huge, as he has scored 15, 35 and 16 in his first three games back, resulting in three straight victories for Los Angeles. Reaves leads the Lakers in plus/minus and the team is 18-8 with him active this season.
While losing Doncic is a massive hit to Los Angeles’ offense, the team’s defense is better without the guard and this should be a hard fought and potentially low scoring matchup with the Thunder, who are always one of the top defenses in the NBA regardless of whose inactive.
Lakers vs. Thunder Pick, Best Bet
The Thunder are in a funk right now and while Doncic is out, heading to Los Angeles to face the Lakers isn’t exactly a right matchup for Oklahoma City. The Lakers are 14-8 at home this season and 6-2 at home in the new year.
This game should be a nail biter and I like backing the Lakers for the upset with +210 ML odds.