Keagan Smith dives into his pick and prediction for the Atlanta Hawks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves game on Monday’s NBA slate.

Both the Atlanta Hawks and Minnesota Timberwolves will be looking to get back on the right foot in tonight’s matchup. The former just suffered a loss to a surging Hornets group this weekend, while the latter has now dropped two straight contests and has struggled to find much momentum in recent weeks. As long as Jalen Johnson suits up for Atlanta tonight, this could be a very intriguing contest between a couple of postseason hopefuls.

Here’s a Hawks vs. Timberwolves prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday’s game.

Hawks vs. Timberwolves prediction, preview

Atlanta Hawks

With a 26-28 record, the Hawks still remain ninth in the Eastern Conference and suddenly face a real threat to drop after losing the the Hornets, who won their ninth straight game over the weekend. Atlanta now looks to integrate trade deadline adds Buddy Hield and Gabe Vincent into the rotation while awaiting a return from injury for fellow acquisition Jonathan Kuminga.

Atlanta still ranks second in pace while a -0.9 NETRTG ranks 19th in the league. The Hawks do have a strong offense at 117.5 PPG (eighth) thanks to efficient marks of 55.0% from two (14th) and 32.0% from three (fifth). The Hawks also post a league-high 30.8 assists per contest along with the second-best AST/TO ratio and AST/FGM ratios as well. The defense truly struggles, though. The Hawks give up 118.4 PPG (24th) and fall 25th in rebounding with 42.2 per game. Adding defensive standouts should’ve been the focus of the trade deadline, but Vincent, Hield and Kuminga all leave something to be desired in that aspect of their games.

Star forward Jalen Johnson comes off 31 points in his last game with averages of 23.4 points, 10.6 rebounds and 8.2 assists per game. Nickeil Alexander-Walker also brings 20.2 PPG in a career-best campaign, while fellow guard CJ McCollum has averaged 17.4 PPG since being swapped to Atlanta in the Trae Young deal. Big man Onyeka Okongwu holds it down at center with 16.3 points and 7.9 boards per contest, and new depth add Jock Landale’s numbers sit at 15.5 PPG and 5.5 rebounds in his first two games with Atlanta. A handful of other players all average double-digit points, headlined by Dyson Daniels (11.4 PPG, 6.2 assists) and Zaccharie Risacher.

On the injury report, Johnson (knee) is questionable alongside Daniels (ankle). Kuminga (knee) remains out and is yet to make his Hawks debut.

Minnesota Timberwolves

At 35-22, it’s been a pretty good season for the Timberwolves thus far. They’re sixth in the Western Conference with just 2.5 games separating them from the third-place Nuggets, so moving up in the postseason picture isn’t unrealistic whatsoever. However, they’re just 5-5 across their last 10 games and are yet to produce a truly dominant winning streak like other top teams have at points this season.

Minnesota falls 11th in pace and seventh in NETRTG at +4.2, and the unit is quite solid at both ends of the floor. The Timberwolves average 119.1 PPG (fifth) and give up 114.8 to opponents (12th). On offense, they’re quite efficient with a 56.1% mark from two (eighth) and a 37.4% rate from three (fourth), though they’re just 20th in FGA per game. The team also sits around league-average in assists per game with 26.3 (15th) and the 16th-ranked AST/TO ratio. On the boards, the Wolves rank 12th overall with 44.9 rebounds per contest as well. It’s clear this is a quality roster, but they do seem to be missing the extra “oomph” it may take to finally get over the playoff hump.

Still, Anthony Edwards is playing like a man possessed with a career-high 29.6 PPG while shooting 49.2% from the field and 39.8% from three on high volume. The pairing of he and teammate Julius Randle is paying off, with the latter at 22.1 points, 6.9 rebounds and 5.4 assists per contest as well. Jaden McDaniels’ growth into a two-way force with 14.8 PPG and his already elite defense has been fun to watch, while Rudy Gobert averages a 10.7-point, 11.3-board double-double and leads the league in FG% at 69.6%. Naz Reid and Donte DiVincenzo produce double-digit points in key roles, and trade addition Ayo Dosunmu posted 11 points with two steals in his debut.

Hawks vs. Timberwolves pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Timberwolves as -8.5 home favorites tonight with -305 odds on the Moneyline. The Hawks are +245 ML underdogs with the game total set at 237.5 points. Betting splits show 83% of straight wagers on Charlotte to win with 56% picking the under on the total.

Atlanta has what it takes to be a competitive group, and it typically is on most nights. However, I’m not buying the Hawks’ offensive prowess to continue against Minnesota. The Timberwolves have a litany of players who contribute on both ends of the floor, better paint protection with Gobert, and generally just a much stronger defense. They should be able to bother opposing shooters and limit the typical efficiency the Hawks produce. On the other end, Atlanta simply doesn’t have the talent to slow down all of the Wolves’ scoring threats — the only hope for the Hawks is to win in a shootout, but even then, it could be tough for them to match Minnesota’s offensive output.

That rings especially true if Johnson doesn’t play, but even if he suits up, I like both MIN -8.5 and the under. I’m picking the latter as my best bet here, especially with such a high total set.

Top pick: Under 237.5 points (-110)