Bill Yin breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Nuggets vs. Grizzlies on Wednesday.
The 34-20 Nuggets will host the 20-32 Grizzlies tonight.
The Nuggets are currently –675 favorites on the Moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 238.5. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s matchup and offer my prediction.
Denver Nuggets vs. Memphis Grizzlies preview, prediction
The Grizzlies simply do not have much left. What was once a promising young Western Conference team has now become barren, with Memphis losing two out of their three core players in the last two seasons as they shipped away Desmond Bane and more recently Jaren Jackson Jr. Ja Morant is still on this team but has been inactive this season, bouncing in and out of the lineup. Even when he’s played, he’s been bad; Morant is putting up 19.5 PPG with 8.1 APG while shooting 41% from the floor, which is a career-low mark by far. His 19.5 PPG is also hte lowest since his second year in the league. He’s also completely lost what little accuracy he had from deep and is now currently cashing 23.5% of his three point attempts. This team seems ready to start their rebuild. Fortunately, Memphis still has some promising young players on its roster. Scotty Pippen Jr. has been effective in low minutes, and Cedric Coward has flashed some nice scoring upside as well. They also have Jaylen Wells and GG Jackson to round out their young talent. The Grizzlies have posted 124 DEFRTG since moving on from Jackson, which is a putrid mark, albeit low sample.
Denver, on the other hand, has survived their month-long stretch without superstar Nikola Jokic. Much of this can be attributed to the stellar play of Jamal Murray and Peyton Watson, with the latter unfortunately now sidelined for an extended period of time due to a Grade 2 hamstring strain. Watson is in the midst of a career-best breakout campaign, averaging 14.9 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1 SPG, and 1.2 BPG with .49/.42/.73 shooting splits. The Nuggets will pray to get Watson back before the playoffs. Murray, on the other hand, will be heading into his first All-Star game this weekend. This Denver offense is good once again, but their defense is severely lacking, potentially due to missing several starters for long portions of the year. Christian Braun, Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson, and the aforementioned Watson have all missed extended periods of time. The Nuggets currently hold a 116.8 DEFRTG, good for 24th in the league. Their offense is currently the highest in the league with a stellar 120.9 OFFRTG.
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies pick, best bet
Best bet: Denver Nuggets Alternate Spread -9.5 (-201)
We’re getting a good price for this spot with a healthy Jokic/Murray against a banged up, depleted Grizzlies squad. The Nuggets are also at home, and they have one of the biggest home advantages in the league.