Bill Yin breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Hornets vs. Hawks on Wednesday.

The 25-29 Hornets will host the 26-29 Hawks tonight.

The Hornets are currently –185 favorites on the Moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 234.5. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s matchup and offer my prediction.

Charlotte Hornets vs. Atlanta Hawks preview, prediction

The Hornets have been rolling, dropping just one game in their last 10. They lost their last game against the best team in the East, the Pistons. It’s a shame they couldn’t run into the Pistons now that Jalen Duren’s been suspended for two games, but alas, they probably shouldn’t get too greedy after turning their season around in this fashion. Charlotte’s been stepping up on the defensive end, posting a 109.3 DEFRTG in these 10 games. This would be an elite mark if they can keep this up for the rest of the season. But perhaps the most important factor in the Hornets’ recent run has been their incredible rebounding. They’ve been awesome in this department all season, limiting opponents to 47.9 RPG (1st in NBA), but have been even better than this lately, allowing just 37.7 ORPG in their last 10. However, one of their best rebounders in Moussa Diabate, who’s posting 12.3 RPG per-36 minutes, has just been suspended for four games, along with Miles Bridges. With these two off the floor, the Hornets will have to try to pull some production from their bench, from players such as Josh Green, Grant Williams, and Ryan Kalkbrenner. The latter is an excellent rebounder himself, so perhaps the Hornets will still be elite on the glass tonight, but it’s definitely a blow to them.

As for the Hawks, they’ve seen better days. They’re 6-4 in their last 10, which is a fine mark, but are still just the ninth seed in the East and are aggressively hunting a Play-In spot with their new roster. They’re still trying to figure out how to incorporate CJ McCollum into the lineup, but since they moved Trae Young, Atlanta is 8-6. They’ve relied on their new number one option, Jalen Johnson, who is having a breakout season and is headed for his first All-Star game this weekend. Johnson, since Young got traded, is putting up 22.7 PPG, 11.1 RPG, and 7.6 APG. He’s been one of the best players in the NBA this season and perhaps even marks the beginning of a new ideal archetype of player, the point-forward who has the size to bully defenders down low while spacing the floor and reading the defense. The Hawks lead the NBA in assists this season with 30.6 APG.

Hornets vs. Hawks pick, best bet

Best bet: Atlanta Hawks +4.5

The NBA suspended two of the Hornets’ starters as a result of the brawl that occurred between the Hornets and the Pistons. The Hawks’ spread tonight has adjusted to this change, but perhaps not enough. I’m backing Atlanta to cover +4.5 tonight due to the Hornets missing key pieces in their rotation as well as their continued growth in the post-Trae Young era.