It has been 58 days since ESPN’s last Top 100 NBA Draft big board update, and for the NBL’s Next Stars, the latest rankings tell two very different stories.
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For Karim Lopez, the momentum is building.
The New Zealand Breakers forward has climbed from No. 11 to No. 10 in ESPN’s latest update after a strong run of form that has drawn NBA scouts down under. In the most recent piece, draft analyst Jeremy Woo highlighted just how far Lopez has come.
“NBA teams have continued making the long trip down under to see Lopez, who put together a strong January, including 32 points on Jan. 30 against Melbourne in a game with playoff implications. “
“Now up to 50% shooting from the field on the season, his positional size, perimeter skill and toughness give him a strong developmental base to build on.”
“Lopez has helped stabilise his stock with his productivity, no small feat being 18 years old in a pro league.”
“Scouts’ questions centre around how much offence Lopez will be able to create for himself and how much he’ll improve as a shooter (31.5% from 3), as he isn’t fleet of foot and has to rely on skill and craft. But the dearth of bigger wings in this class and his improved production should help his case.”
That production has clearly lifted. Over the past two months, Lopez has averaged 13.4 points, 6.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.3 blocks per game, shooting 51.0 per cent from the field. He is also one of just three players in the league averaging at least one steal and one block per game.
Earlier in the season, the conversation was more cautious. Rewinding to 17 December 2025, when Lopez sat at No. 11, Woo pointed to “concerns defensively” around the 18-year-old.
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“Lopez has turned in some quality performances in recent weeks and is putting together a strong season in the NBL.”
“He is further removed from an off-season back injury, and has shown his skill and feel for scoring at his size.”
“The holdup for some scouts is his limited burst and ability to separate on the perimeter, as well as concerns defensively, which likely make him best suited as a stretch-four long-term. Those traits also make it difficult to see extreme upside. Still, Lopez is producing against older competition, and if he can maintain his impressive shooting splits (49% on field goals, 39% from 3 and 77% on free throws), it’s easier to envision him carving out an NBA role.”
At that stage, Lopez was averaging 10.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 1.0 steal per game while shooting 49.4 per cent from the field. Solid numbers, though modest for a highly touted Next Star.
Lopez has since missed the past couple of games with a lower-leg issue, with the Breakers taking a cautious approach. President of Basketball Operations Dillon Boucher confirmed the club is awaiting further medical advice before setting a timeline.
“While we don’t believe the injury to be serious, we are awaiting further medical advice and will take the absolute best course of action for Karim’s recovery.
“Consequently, he will not suit up tonight. We will provide a further update on his availability for the remainder of the season in due course.”
With the NBL Ignite Cup final approaching, there is a genuine chance Lopez has played his last game as a Breaker as he turns his focus towards the NBA, though a return for one final push remains possible.
If his current trajectory holds, his place in the top 10 looks well earned.
HOBART, AUSTRALIA – FEBRUARY 01: Karim Lopez of the Breakers blocks the shot of Nick Marshall of the JackJumpers during the round 19 NBL match between Tasmania Jackjumpers and New Zealand Breakers at MyState Bank Arena, on February 01, 2026, in Hobart, Australia. (Photo by Steve Bell/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images
For Dash Daniels, the story has shifted the other way.
The younger brother of Dyson Daniels started the season strongly with Melbourne United, averaging 5.1 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.1 assists and 0.8 steals in 15.2 minutes per game while shooting 43.7 per cent from the field. That form saw him rise to No. 26 in ESPN’s rankings and placed him firmly in top 30 conversations.
Since then, his role and production have dipped. Across the period between rankings, Daniels has averaged 3.0 points, 2.0 rebounds, 0.4 assists and 0.4 steals in 12.8 minutes, shooting 40 per cent from the field.
In the latest update, he has fallen to No. 51, sliding outside the top 50.
The reduced minutes have coincided with Melbourne’s push for results, with head coach Dean Vickerman leaning more heavily on experienced options as United look to steady their form. That is a tough environment for any teenager to thrive in.
The drop is not definitive. Daniels remains a long-term prospect with clear upside, particularly defensively. However, the conversation is growing that another season in the Next Stars program, and a shift towards the 2027 draft, may give him the platform to re-establish his stock.
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA – FEBRUARY 12: Dash Daniels of United is seen during the round 21 NBL match between Cairns Taipans and Melbourne United at Cairns Convention Centre, on February 12, 2026, in Cairns, Australia. (Photo by Emily Barker/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images