Orlando Magic coach Jamahl Mosley has repeatedly warned that things will be a bit clunky as Franz Wagner gets his legs back under him.
The return from a long-term injury is always a difficult one. And Wagner’s 1-for-7 showing in Wednesday’s loss to the Milwaukee Bucks was another reminder that Wagner still has a way to go to get back to being the All-Star he was set to become before his Dec. 7 high ankle sprain.
This is one of the big bets the Magic made with their trade deadline.
As president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman explained why the Magic once again largely left their rotation unchanged — they traded Tyus Jones to get under the tax, leaving a small hole at backup point guard — the Magic were waiting to see their roster at full health before making any major changes.
The playoffs, he explained essentially came down to your best five-man lineup against the other team’s best five-man lineup. And in a small sample size, he was confident the Magic’s starting five would be able to stand up.
If the Magic have a reason to hope after the All-Star Break, it is centered on the belief that they can reach their potential now that injuries are seemingly out of the way. They can finally see their best five on the floor together.
“I’m extremely hopeful,” coach Jamahl Mosley said after Wednesday’s loss. “I believe this team can do great things, and we will do great things. Finding that rhythm within the team. But it is going to come down to rest. It’s going to take a little bit of time, and, obviously, the back end is going to happen quick. It’s got to be in practices and it’s got to be in film, it’s got to be in communication, it’s got to be on us working together so we understand exactly what is needed working on the back-end.”
Waiting for the starters is a simplistic diagnosis for the season. It is certainly spin to justify patience with this roster — and ignores the key fact that Orlando was 5-6 in the 11 games their starters played together before Wagner returned this week.
But the Magic do not know how good they might be yet.
They hope that getting their roster fully healthy will allow them to see just how far they can go and how far away they truly are from their goals.
A strong starting five
Before Franz Wagner returned, the Orlando Magic’s opening night starting five of Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Franz Wagner and Wendell Carter had a +18.0 net rating with a 122.6 offensive rating and 104.6 defensive rating in 117 minutes across 11 games.
That was the fifth-best lineup in the league by net rating that played at least 100 minutes together.
It was a small sample size. But it gave the team enough confidence to wait out the injuries rather than try to remake the starting group. Orlando just wanted to hang on until everyone could get healthy again.
That group has gotten a little time together in the last two games, playing nine minutes together and getting outscored 23-15. The entirety of that eight-point deficit came in the final two minutes of Wednesday’s frustrating loss.
For the season then, that group has a +14.0 net rating with a 120.1 offensive rating and 106.1 defensive rating in 126 minutes together. The Magic still need them together for more minutes.
Orlando is certainly betting that when Wagner is up and running at full speed the Magic will return to dominating opponents with this group. The pieces fit together well.
“I think having a full lineup, there are so many weapons out there and so many guys who can touch the paint, it really opens up a lot of opportunities for me to get catch-and-shoot shots,” Desmond Bane said after Wednesday’s loss. “J-Suggs had 10 assists tonight. He has been passing the heck out of the ball. As the season goes on, we are continuing to find ways to help each other and play to each other’s strengths.”
Even the lineup with Anthony Black, named the 13th best starting lineup in the league by Fansided, has had some success.
That group has a +7.0 net rating (113.7 offensive rating/106.7 defensive rating) in 201 minutes this season, the most-used lineup for the Magic this season.
Orlando should continue to turn to that lineup and not turning to it to close Wednesday’s game might be a regret — Black did not play at all in the fourth quarter.
The Magic have starting groups that work but have struggled to score off the bench. They average 31.6 points per game off the bench, 26th in the league.
Assumedly the return of Moe Wagner as he gets back to form — he recorded his fourth striaght game with 10 or more points — and Anthony Black or Franz Wagner coming off the bench will boost the team’s struggling bench scoring.
Right now, the Magic are just trying to get everyone back up to speed so they can figure all of this out, even 53 games into their season.
“I think it always takes a little bit of time, both for the player and the team,” Bane said after Wednesday’s loss. “I’m sure [Franz Wagner] is going to put his work in over the break and come back and be able to play a little bit more minutes going into the second half of the season. It’s good to be healthy. We’ve got our group, and we’ve got a good opportunity to build going toward the postseason.”
The question is whether it is too late or whether this theory will pan out. Can the Magic finally put those pieces together? Was the problem truly just health?
That is what the Magic are eager to find out.
Finishing strong?
The Orlando Magic have finished strong after the break before. That has been consistent about this team.
They went 14-12 last year to rally to get to .500 and earn the 7-seed. They went 17-10 to close the 2024 season to earn the 5-seed and break through into the Playoffs.
In both instances, whatever lingering injuries the Magic had were resolved and it enabled the Magic to play their best heading into the postseason.
Orlando is betting on the same thing happening again.
If it is the Magic’s best five against another team’s best five, perhaps there still is a chance.