Sean Barnard details his preview, prediction, and pick for the Indiana Hoosiers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini college basketball matchup.

Tipping off at 1 p.m. ET, the Indiana Hoosiers will take on the Illinois Fighting Illini in an intriguing Big Ten matchup.

These programs have faced off 189 times in history. It has been an even matchup through the years, with Indiana coming out on top in 96 of these matchups while Illinois has picked up 93 victories. Illinois has won the past two matchups between them, but Indiana picked up three consecutive wins before this.

Illinois enters as a 10.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at 151.5.

Indiana vs. Illinois prediction, preview

The Indiana Hoosiers are 17-8 this season, and have gone 8-6 in the Big Ten. They enter this matchup coming off back-to-back victories over Oregon and Wisconsin, and have won five of their past six games. On the season, they have gone 13-12 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 13 of their 25 games.

Darian DeVries’ squad is producing 81.5 points per game, which ranks 72nd in the country. Indiana also ranks 45th in offensive rating, 70th in field goal percentage, and 116th in three-point percentage. Opponents are scoring 71.4 points per game against them, which ranks 115th among DI teams. The Hoosiers also rank 116th in defensive rating, 49th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 64th in opponents’ three-point percentage.

Lamar Wilkerson headlines the production, posting averages of 21.2 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 2.6 assists, while shooting 38.7% on three-point attempts. Tucker DeVries has been playing at a high level, especially of late, and holds season averages of 13.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 3.3 assists. Tayton Conerway is the lone other player averaging in double figures, adding 10.5 points, 3.8 assists, and 3.1 rebounds.

Illinois enters with a 20-5 record, and has gone 11-3 in conference play. Its five losses have come against Alabama, UConn, Nebraska, Michigan State and Wisconsin. The Fighting Illini arrive coming off back-to-back overtime losses against Michigan State and Wisconsin in the two previous games. On the season, Illinois is 15-10 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 15 of the 25 of the games played.

Brad Underwood’s squad is scoring 84.7 points per game, which ranks 27th in the country. They also lead the country in offensive rating, rank 100th in field goal percentage, and 66th in three-point percentage. On the other end of the floor, teams are scoring 68.9 points per game against Illinois, which ranks 63rd in the country. They also rank 87th in defensive rating, 30th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 99th in opponents’ three-point percentage.

Keaton Wagler leads the team with 18.5 points per game, along with 4.9 rebounds and 4.5 assists, on a Big Ten-leading 43.7% efficiency from downtown. Kylan Boswell adds 14.3 points per game, but is considered a game-time decision for the matchup. Andrej Stojakovic’s status is also uncertain, but the 6-foot-7 guard is averaging 13.7 points and 4.6 rebounds. David Mirkovic and Tomislav Ivisic each also average in double figures, with Mirkovic leading the team with 8.0 rebounds per game.

Indiana vs. Illinois pick, best bet

Illinois is coming off back-to-back tough overtime losses in which they played really solid overall basketball. In the most recent loss to Wisconsin, they shot 53.3% from the field and 45.5% on three-point attempts, while forcing 23 points off turnovers. This still was not enough, with the team letting themselves down on the defensive side of the ball. They have lost by a combined five points in the past two games.

You could make the case that Indiana is a slip in competition compared to the teams that handed them losses, but not by much. The Hoosiers are coming off a victory over Oregon in which they shot 60% from the field and had a strong rebounding advantage. They also have won seven of their past eight games when playing on a rest advantage and are 6-2 against the spread in these matchups.

Illinois is the better overall team, but they have allowed teams to stick around at too regular of a rate lately. Injuries are also a factor for the Fighting Illini. In contrast, Indiana looks to be playing some of its best basketball of late. The Hoosiers rank 19th in the country in three-point attempts per game, which will be problematic against an Illinois defense that ranks 322nd in opponents’ three-point volume.

I can’t quite talk myself into Indiana getting the outright victory, but 10.5 feels like too many points based on the quality of these teams and recent stretch of play. If Illinois does not come out strong in the matchup, they will be fighting an uphill battle. The Fighting Illini have failed to cover the spread in back-to-back games and three of their last five, while the Hoosiers have covered in five of their last seven.

Best Bet: Indiana +10.5 (-108)