There are only three weeks left in the college basketball regular season. That means there are only six SEC games remaining. Florida keeps distancing itself in the league race. Meanwhile, eight other teams in the league are on the line or within one game of a double-bye spot for the SEC Tournament. We have ourselves a logjam.
Chalk mostly held this weekend with only underdogs Mississippi State (over Ole Miss) and Texas (over Missouri) recording outright wins. Florida is the team to beat but Arkansas is only one game back after a home win over Auburn. Another big week is ahead.
This is where the SEC Tournament race sits.
Current standings
This is where every team would be seeded if the SEC Tournament started today.
Florida (10-2)
Arkansas (9-3)
Vanderbilt (8-4)
Kentucky (8-4)
Tennessee (8-4)
Alabama (8-4)
Missouri (7-5)
Texas A&M (7-5)
Texas (7-5)
Georgia (5-7)
Auburn (5-7)
Mississippi State (4-8)
Oklahoma (3-9)
Ole Miss (3-9)
LSU (2-10)
South Carolina (2-10)
There is a four-way tie at 8-4 and a three-way tie at 7-5. Vanderbilt wins the No. 3 tiebreaker due to pool record (2-0). Kentucky (2-2) has a better pool record than Tennessee (1-2) and Alabama (1-2) allowing them to have the No. 4 spot if the SEC Tournament started today.
UK is not out of the hunt for a regular season title yet due to a return game against Florida arriving in March, but they might need to win out to catch the Gators at this point. The bottom of the league is fairly settled. Losing streaks for Georgia and Auburn have dropped them out of the SEC’s double-bye race for now.
Projected SEC standings
Using KenPom‘s projections, this is what the SEC Tournament field would look like. I used some projected results to find tiebreaker winners.
Florida (15-3)
Arkansas (13-5)
Tennessee (12-6)
Vanderbilt (12-6)
Alabama (12-6)
Kentucky (11-7)
Texas A&M (10-8)
Texas (10-8)
Missouri (9-9)
Auburn (9-9)
Georgia (8-10)
Mississippi State (6-12)
Oklahoma (5-13)
Ole Miss (5-13)
LSU (4-14)
South Carolina (4-14)
Florida is projected to win the league by two games and get to 15 wins. The Gators host Arkansas on Feb. 28 in the biggest remaining game in the conference. The Hogs have reeled off three consecutive victories since the home loss to Kentucky and are now projected to get to 13 league wins. Three others are at 12 wins. Kentucky is still projected to end the season with 11 wins.
Eight teams are projected to reach 10 wins. Texas has seen their numbers improve after a four-game winning streak that included road wins over Oklahoma and Missouri. UK will very likely need 12 wins to secure a double-bye. The Cats own the tiebreaker over Tennessee and have a key win against Arkansas. Evening the series with Vanderbilt will be critical on Feb. 28 for tiebreaker purposes.
As of now, Arkansas is the only team with a realistic shot at chasing Florida. Everyone is really playing for the other three double-bye spots. Those all remain wide open.
This week in the SEC
Every team will be in conference action this week with eight games on the schedule over Tuesday and Wednesday. Florida and Tennessee will be heavy home favorites. Kentucky draws a reeling team at home. Arkansas and Vanderbilt are hitting the road for toss-up games.
South Carolina at Florida (Tuesday | 7 p.m. ET)
LSU at Texas (Tuesday | 9 p.m. ET)
Georgia at Kentucky (Tuesday | 9 p.m. ET)
Arkansas at Alabama (Wednesday | 7 p.m. ET)
Oklahoma at Tennessee (Wednesday | 7 p.m. ET)
Ole Miss at Texas A&M (Wednesday | 7 p.m. ET)
Auburn at Mississippi State (Wednesday | 9 p.m. ET)
Vanderbilt at Missouri (Wednesday | 9 p.m. ET)
The Hogs will be a road dog against Alabama. Missouri will attempt to bounce-back with a home game against Vanderbilt. Tennessee will all of a sudden host a hot Oklahoma team that is scoring points in bunches. UK will attempt to continue Georgia’s slide.
There could be some more movement at the top of the SEC standings before we get to the weekend.