Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Rockets at Hornets on Thursday.

After an eventful All-Star break for the Houston Rockets that included an off-the-court scandal featuring superstar Kevin Durant, they’ll begin the second half of their season tonight, hoping to put any distractions behind them.

With or without off-the-court drama, Houston has a difficult test tonight in its road game against the Charlotte Hornets, one of the league’s hottest teams. It’ll begin at 7 p.m. ET at Spectrum Center.

The Rockets will be completely healthy with the exception of their two players who are out for the season (Steven Adams with his ankle sprain and Fred VanVleet with his torn ACL). Meanwhile, the Hornets will be without the newly-acquired Coby White (calf), as well as Miles Bridges and Moussa Diabaté, both of whom were suspended for their roles in a brawl against the Detroit Pistons.

Houston is a 4.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook (-192 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 216.5. Charlotte is +160 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down the first game of the NBA’s second half and offer a prediction.

Houston Rockets at Charlotte Hornets preview, prediction

The Rockets didn’t enter the All-Star break in the best form, losing three of their last five games, including one to the Hornets in which Bridges scored 19 points. But Houston remains very much alive in the race for a first-round home series, sitting fourth in the standings, half a game ahead of both the Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves. For all of the off-court controversy that follows him, Durant has been brilliant on the hardwood, putting up 51-40-88 splits, and Alperen Şengün remains one of the league’s best interior playmaking hubs.

Charlotte, meanwhile, did manage to pick up a win without Bridges and Diabaté, but it was just a three-point win against the Atlanta Hawks, so the Hornets definitely are somewhat vulnerable without their two starters. All in all, though, they should feel extremely confident about their position headed into the stretch run, given that they’ve had the league’s second-best net rating since January 1. LaMelo Ball has appeared in each of the last 29 games, averaging 19.8 points per game and canning 40% of his threes across that span, one of the most reliable high-level stretches of his career.

Rockets at Hornets pick, best bet

Charlotte has been hot enough for long enough that it’s hard to consider it anything but real, and the Hornets arguably should’ve been even better than 15-7 across that span, given their No. 2 offense and No. 5 defense. The main reason for Charlotte’s success has been its league-best 55.8% rebounding percentage across that span, and while it has been slightly worse on the glass without Diabaté on the floor, it’s still had the equivalent of the fourth-best mark. The Hornets’ offense could take a slight dip without Diabaté and Bridges, but they should make up for some of that gap defensively.

The Rockets could still have a good chance as long as they’re aggressive in driving, given that Charlotte has conceded 70.7% accuracy in the restricted area even amid its hot streak and will be without Diabaté, a slightly better overall defender than Ryan Kalkbrenner. But that could be a problem for Houston, which has ranked third-to-last in made field goals per game in the restricted area since Adams went down with his injury 13 games ago. The Rockets should be able to make up for it somewhat on the other end, though; they’ve remained an elite rim protecting team even without Adams, and the home team hasn’t been great at driving, either.

With each team capable of nullifying each other’s strengths on the glass, transition play becomes even more important. As of late, neither team has been great overall at recording points off of turnovers or second-chance points and both have been pretty turnover-prone, so it’s roughly a wash. Houston has a slightly better foul differential than the Hornets do, as it has committed two fewer fouls per game than it has drawn in the last 13 games and Charlotte has committed 0.7 fewer fouls per game than it has drawn.

The Hornets could pull away through their shooting. Since January 1, Charlotte has generated the seventh-most wide-open threes per game and canned more than 41% of them. While that accuracy could normalize at some point, the Hornets have great shooters, with rookie Kon Knueppel ranking second in the league in makes. Meanwhile, the Rockets have produced uncontested looks at the league’s lowest rate across that same span and converted at one of the league’s lowest clips. Both teams have allowed nearly the same number of wide-open triples, though Charlotte has benefited slightly more from opponent shooting luck.

If the Hornets can take away Houston’s advantage on the boards — its typical path to victory — they can turn the game into a shooting contest, which they should clearly be favored to win. Even though Charlotte has been slightly better on the road than at home, it’s still worth taking at +160 odds.

Best bet: Charlotte Hornets Moneyline (+160)