Each Mountain West men’s basketball team has just five regular-season games remaining before the conference tournament is held. With the season winding down and the stakes ramping up, let’s look at what I got right and what I got wrong about the conference before the season began.

What I got right

Player of the year vote: SDSU’s Miles Byrd was picked the consensus MW player of the year, but Utah State’s Mason Falslev topped my list. The award remains up in the air, but Falslev is the favorite and there’s almost no way Byrd wins the award. Byrd’s defense remains better than ever, but his points per game have dipped from 12.3 to 10.6 and his 3-point shooting remains low (31.7 percent). Falslev is averaging 16.3 points, 5.6 boards, 2.7 assists and 2.1 steals while shooting 53.3/41.9/76.9.

Bullish on Aggies: In my first power rankings of the 2025-26 campaign in April, I had Utah State first over SDSU, which drew some hateful comments from Aztec fans (there’s a major overlap between SDSU and Padres fans; both can be vicious). While that prediction hasn’t been completely vindicated yet, Utah State (13-2) leads SDSU (12-3) by a game in the conference standings with five to go. However it ends up, Utah State is going to the Big Dance, so it was right to be bullish on the Aggies.

Newcomer of the year vote: In the transfer portal era, there are always a number of great newcomers to the MW. I picked UNLV’s Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn for preseason newcomer of the year (the consensus was GCU’s Brian Moore Jr.). Gibbs-Lawhorn may not win the award with Utah State’s M.J. Collins playing well. But Gibbs-Lawhorn should be the favorite, averaging a MW-best 19.8 ppg (22.4 ppg in league play) after tallying just 4.3 ppg at Illinois. Our high-level growth projection was fulfilled.

Grading Eric Olen: In my offseason MW coach hiring grades, I gave New Mexico an “A” for adding Olen, hailing him as an excellent Xs-and-Os coach who did less with more at UC San Diego before adding he’ll get more to work with in Albuquerque. That has proven true with Olen one of the favorites for MW coach of the year with his Lobos third in the league at 11-4 and in the mix for an NCAA Tournament at-large spot despite returning zero points from last season. Olen has done a great job.

Grading Josh Pastner: In that same article, I criticized UNLV hiring Pastner, writing, “I don’t think UNLV’s plan when firing (Kevin) Kruger and paying him a $2.35 million buyout — despite him only having $1.6 million left on his contract; explain that — was to land Pastner, a moderate upgrade. I’d rather have poured that $2.35 million in booster money into Kruger’s 2025-26 roster via NIL.” UNLV is 13-13 and has a lower KenPom in Pastner’s first year than any of Kruger’s four seasons at the school.

What I got wrong

Freshman of the year vote: The most difficult preseason vote is MW freshman of the year. And this season, I was way off. I picked Boise State’s Spencer Ahrens, who has been solid (5.5 ppg, 2.5 rpg) but is not in the running to win this honor. The award is going to New Mexico’s Jake Hall, who also should be a first-team All-MW pick. The consensus ballot opted for SDSU’s Elzie Harrington (8.4 ppg, 2.3 apg), which was a better pick than Ahrens but also won’t be the end-of-the-year selection.

Too low on New Mexico: Despite my high grade on Olen’s hiring, I still picked New Mexico to finish eighth in the preseason poll, which will end up being around five spots too low. The Lobos are likely to finish third or fourth in the league and get a first-round conference tournament bye. I also messed up UNLV. After correctly being bearish on the Pastner hire (at least so far), I picked the Rebels to finish fourth in the league. UNLV is more likely going to place sixth or seventh.

Giving Boise State too much credit: I was concerned about Boise State losing Tyson Degenhart, and noted such concerns. But (a) the Broncos added two top-10 transfers in the league; (b) Boise State brought back a top-three group of returning players in the MW; and (c) Leon Rice always wins 20 games. I picked Boise State third in my MW preseason poll. Instead, the Broncos are 15-11 overall, 7-8 in the MW (tied for seventh) and out of the mix for an NCAA Tournament at-large spot.

SDSU is not going to the Sweet 16: As part of my preseason “Bold Predictions,” I wrote that SDSU would make the Sweet 16, adding “I was going to say Elite 8 but didn’t want to be that spicy.” Well, SDSU is certainly not going to the Elite 8. And a Sweet 16 berth sits at 4 percent odds, per TeamRankings, which gives the Aztecs a 71 percent chance of making the NCAA Tournament in the first place. SDSU has been good but not great this year. I was among those expecting great things.

Tayshawn Comer and All-MW: Also in the “Bold Predictions” column was my projection Nevada’s Comer would make the All-MW team, which is not happening. I had Elijah Price on my 10-man preseason All-MW team, and he’ll be a second-team or third-team All-MW pick. But the miss here is Corey Camper Jr., who has been Nevada’s top player this season and will be an all-conference pick. I saw him more as a role player, but he’s been the Wolf Pack’s biggest star in 2025-26.

*****

As for Nevada, I picked the Wolf Pack to finish sixth in the MW (the team is currently fifth) while going 8-3 in non-league (Nevada went 8-3 in non-league) and 12-8 in the Mountain West (Nevada is 9-6 and projected to finish 12-8). As Christoph Waltz said in Inglorious Bastards, “That’s a bingo!”

Columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at crmurray@sbgtv.com or follow him on Twitter @ByChrisMurray.