Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Clippers at Lakers on Friday.

On December 19, the LA Clippers were 6-21 and in dead last in the Western Conference. That day, they hosted the Los Angeles Lakers at Intuit Dome and picked up a 103-88 victory in a game that both Ivica Zubac and Luka Dončić left early with injuries. Since then, they haven’t looked back, going 20-7 despite dealing away both James Harden and Zubac at the trade deadline, and they look likely to make the playoffs.

Tonight, the two Los Angeles teams will face off again in the Lakers’ first game since the All-Star break, though the matchup will take place at Crypto.com Arena this time. It’ll begin at 10:10 p.m. ET and be televised on ESPN.

Neither team has submitted an injury report yet, but it’s likely that Dončić will return after missing the final three games before the All-Star break with a hamstring injury. The Clippers also have a pretty clean injury report, as every member of their regular rotation played last night except for the newly-acquired Darius Garland, who won’t yet be available to make his team debut as he continues to recover from a toe injury.

The Lakers are 7.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-310 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 225.5. The Clippers, meanwhile, are +250 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down the Battle of LA and offer a prediction.

LA Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers preview, prediction

The Clippers started their second half strong last night, managing a 115-114 win over the Denver Nuggets despite Kawhi Leonard not playing all that well (23 points, four rebounds, and three assists). New addition Bennedict Mathurin, acquired from the Indiana Pacers in the Zubac deal, had his best game of the season, dropping 38 points on 12-for-22 shooting. It’s unclear what the path forward is for the Clippers, who have Leonard under contract until the end of the 2026-27 season, but but for now, they should continue to win as long as Leonard is on the court, and they have no control of their first-round pick, which they owe to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the final piece of the Paul George-Shai Gilgeous-Alexander blockbuster.

As for the Lakers, it’s hard to read too much into their final three games before the All-Star break. The 28-point loss against the San Antonio Spurs wasn’t great, but the Lakers were missing their entire starting lineup besides Jake LaRavia in that one. They managed to bounce back with a 20-point win over the Dallas Mavericks two nights later, and in that game, LeBron James became the oldest player in NBA history to record a triple-double. The Lakers have a major decision to make on James this summer if he doesn’t retire, but for now, their could win at least a playoff series this season with Dončić, James, and Austin Reaves.

Clippers at Lakers pick, best bet

Since this will be the first time the teams have faced each other since the trade deadline, it could have a pretty different tenor. Zubac was a major factor in the teams’ most recent matchup, recording 18 points and 19 rebounds, and Harden had 18 points and 10 assists. Zubac’s minutes alone accounted for the Clippers’ entire margin of victory in that game, as he was a plus-15 and the Clippers ended up winning by eight points. Mathurin will have to step up again if the Clippers want to win, but when he was with the Pacers, they were 5.7 points per 100 possessions better with him off the floor. Mathurin isn’t much of a playmaker, so Harden’s absence will be missed.

The major key for the Clippers will be to put pressure on the rim, given that the Lakers have allowed the league’s highest field goal percentage within the restricted area this season. That’s not something that the Clippers have done well; they rank fourth-to-last in field goal attempts at the rim per game, and Mathurin’s arrival hasn’t significantly changed that. The key will basically be the same for the Lakers, given that the Clippers have also been a bad rim protecting team and lost Zubac — who ranks sixth in defensive RAPM this season. Reaves’ return to full health should help them do just that; he ranks third on the team in restricted-area tries per game and has converted such shots at a 78.3% rate.

The Lakers should have an advantage on the boards, especially on the offensive glass. This season, they’ve recorded the league’s 11th-best rebounding percentage overall, while the Clippers rank just 22nd both overall and on the defensive glass since Zubac’s final game with the team. The Lakers could also have a slight edge in transition, though neither team has been very good on either side of the ball. Where the Lakers have a bigger edge is at the charity stripe; neither team fouls very much, but the Lakers have been elite at drawing contact and the Clippers have been mediocre.

Both teams could make things tricky for the other team’s shooters. Even after the trade deadline, the Clippers have allowed the fewest wide-open threes to opponents, and in that same span, the Lakers have allowed the third-fewest. Both teams have also been among the worst at generating uncontested looks for the season as a whole, and the Clippers have been even worse since the trade deadline. Relative to the difficulty of the shots they take, the Lakers have slightly better shooters: Rui Hachimura, Dončić and Reaves all rank in the league’s top 40 in three-point shooting percentage over expectation, while only Leonard and John Collins do for the Clippers. The shooting edge leans slightly towards the hosts.

If Leonard can slow down James somewhat and hit his shots on the other end, this game could be pretty close, but with Dončić, James, and Reaves all scheduled to play a full minutes load, the Lakers are capable of putting too much pressure on the rim and controlling the boards too much for a team that doesn’t have the personnel to counter that.

Best bet: Los Angeles Lakers -7.5 (-115)