Sean Barnard details his preview and prediction for Friday’s NBA matchup between the Milwaukee Bucks and the New Orleans Pelicans.

With the NBA All-Star break now passed, the home stretch of the season is on, and the action is back in full swing. Tipping off as part of tonight’s 10-game NBA slate, the Milwaukee Bucks will face off with the New Orleans Pelicans.

Neither of these teams has had the season they hoped for to this point. This will be the second and final matchup between these two sides this year. They last played on February 4th, which resulted in a 141-137 overtime victory by the Bucks.

Looking at the odds for tonight, the Pelicans are 4.5-point favorites with -180 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Bucks hold +150 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at 223.5 points.

Let’s dive into a preview and prediction for the Friday night matchup.

Bucks at Pelicans Preview

The Milwaukee Bucks have slipped to 23-30 on the season, and sit in 11th place in the Eastern Conference. Giannis Antetokounmpo’s future has been the headline story much more than the product on the court. This saga will now extend into the summer as no trade was agreed upon, and the two-time MVP remains sidelined with his calf injury. On the season overall, Milwaukee has gone 24-29 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 32 of their 53 games played.

Excluding Antetokounmpo, Kevin Porter Jr. leads the team in production. The 25-year-old is averaging 17.3 points, 7.6 assists, and 5.2 rebounds per game. Ryan Rollins has been one of the bigger breakout players in the league this season, adding 16.9 points, 5.5 assists, and 4.6 rebounds. Cam Thomas landed in Milwaukee through the buyout market and is adding 16.7 points per game across his first three games played. Bobby Portis, Kyle Kuzma, Ousmane Dieng, Gary Trent Jr, and A.J. Green each also play key roles in the rotation. Myles Turner will also be sidelined tonight due to a calf injury.

As a team, the Bucks are scoring 111.8 points per game, which ranks 27th in the NBA. Milwaukee ranks 23rd in offensive rating, fifth in field-goal percentage, second in three-point percentage, and 25th in pace. Defensively, opponents are scoring 115.2 points per game against the Bucks, which ranks 15th in the league. The Bucks also rank 22nd in defensive rating, 11th in opponent field-goal percentage, 25th in opponent three-point percentage and 26th in opponent three-point attempts allowed.

The New Orleans Pelicans hold a 15-41 record on the season. This ranks 14th in the Western Conference and is tied for the second-worst record in basketball. This will mark their first game back since the All-Star break, but they dropped four of their final six matchups leading into it. On the season, the Pelicans have gone 30-26 against the spread, and the game total is 28-28 to the over/under.

Injuries have also been a common theme for this Pelicans team. Dejounte Murray is turning a corner in his recovery from his Achilles tear and is expected to make his debut soon, but will miss tonight’s matchup. Yves Miss, Trey Murphy III, and Micah Peavy have also been ruled out.

On the positive side, Zion Williamson has avoided being attached to these injury conversations at a far greater rate this year. Tonight will mark his 41st game of the season and his 31st consecutive game played. The Duke product is averaging 21.6 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 3.5 assists in these opportunities. Saddiq Bey has had a resurgent season, posting averages of 16.6 points and 5.9 rebounds. First-round rookies Derik Queen and Jeremiah Fears have each shown flashes of promise, and Herb Jones continues to play a key role defensively.

The Pelicans are scoring 114.6 points per game, which ranks 20th in the NBA. They also rank 25th in offensive rating, 19th in field goal percentage, and 25th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 120.4 points per game against New Orleans, which ranks 26th in the league. The Pelicans also rank 27th in defensive rating, 24th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 10th in opponents’ three-point percentage.

Bucks at Pelicans Prediction, Best Bet

During the first matchup between these two teams, the Bucks produced a 141-137 overtime victory. Seven different players scored 13+ points for Milwaukee, while Trey Murphy III poured in 44 points to headline the scoring for New Orleans. Both teams shot the ball at an excellent rate in this matchup. The Bucks shot 61% from the floor and 45% on three-point attempts, while the Pelicans shot 48% from the field and 45% on perimeter shots. The Pelicans were 4.5-point favorites entering this matchup, and the game total comfortably soared past the 222.5 line.

While my lean is toward the Pelicans evening up the season series, I am backing both of these teams to score at a high rate and for the total to go over once again. Both of these teams have some concerning defensive metrics that the other is capable of taking advantage of.

The Bucks rank dead last in the league in points in the paint allowed and have given up more second-chance points than any other team in the league. The Pelicans have seven players on the roster averaging at least one offensive rebound per game, and expect there to be no answer for the way Zion Williamson attacks the rim. Milwaukee also struggles to defend the perimeter, ranking 27th in three-pointers made, 26th in three-point attempts allowed, and 25th in opponents’ three-point percentage. The Pelicans lit them up for 24 made three-pointers in the first game, and expect them to be prepared for a similar style of attack.

On the other side of the matchup, the Pelicans’ perimeter defense is an even greater concern in this matchup. New Orleans ranks 29th in opponents’ three-pointers allowed and 29th in opponent three-point attempts conceded. The Bucks are shooting 39.2% on three-point attempts as a team, which is the second-best rate in the league, and knocked down 21 perimeter shots in the first game between these two. Expect this to be a clear offensive goal again tonight. New Orleans also ranks 29th in the league in opponents’ offensive rebounds, and expect this to be an area where Bobby Portis especially looks to make an impact.

Ultimately, both these teams have some significant defensive flaws that will show their face tonight. Expect each side to have success putting points on the board, and for this game total to clear the 223.5 line. Even without overtime in the first matchup, these teams put up 256 points in regulation. While they might not quite reach these heights, there is plenty of cushion that I am willing to back.

Best Bet: Game Total Over 223.5 (-108)