Sean Barnard details his pick and prediction for the North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Syracuse Orange college basketball matchup.

It is a loaded Saturday of college basketball, with the NCAA Tournament now right around the corner. Tipping off as part of the busy slate, the North Carolina Tar Heels will face off with the Syracuse Orange.

This will be the second time these two ACC programs have faced off this season. On Feb. 2, North Carolina produced an 87-77 victory at home. The action will now travel up to New York, where Syracuse will attempt to even the season series and improve its conference record.

North Carolina enters as a 2.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook and is -162 on the moneyline. Syracuse is +136 on the moneyline, with the game total set at 152.5.

North Carolina vs. Syracuse prediction, preview

The North Carolina Tar Heels are 20-6 this season, and have gone 8-5 in ACC conference play. They are looking to bounce back from an 82-58 loss to NC State, but have won six of their last eight games. North Carolina is 14-12 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 15 of its 26 games played.

Hubert Davis’ squad is averaging 80.9 points per game, which ranks 78th out of the 365 qualifying DI teams. North Carolina also ranks 55th in offensive rating, 77th in team field goal percentage, 217th in three-point percentage, and pulls in the 46th most rebounds per game. Opponents are scoring 70.9 points per game against the Tar Heels, which ranks 96th in the country. UNC also ranks 83rd in defensive rating, 48th in opponents’ field goal percentage, 223rd in opponents’ three-point percentage, and limits opponents to the 14th-fewest free throw attempts per game.

Caleb Wilson headlines the production for North Carolina with 19.8 points and 9.4 rebounds per game. But the future top-10 pick suffered a fractured left hand and will remain sidelined tonight. Henri Veesaar is second on the team in scoring with 16.4 points and 9.0 rebounds per game. Veesaar is also battling some injury issues. He was considered a game-time decision for the matchup against NC State, but ultimately was unable to go. His status is still uncertain for this matchup, but there seems to be optimism. Seth Trimble is the lone other player to average in double figures with 13.3 points and 3.7 rebounds.

The Syracuse Orange are 15-12 record on the season and have gone 6-8 in ACC play. They are coming off a 101-64 dismantling by Duke on Monday. Syracuse had won back-to-back games before this, but has dropped seven of its last 10. The Orange have gone 14-13 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 15 of their 27 games played.

Adrian Autry’s group is scoring 76.0 points per game, which ranks 175th among DI teams. Syracuse also ranks 190th in offensive rating, 75th in team field-goal percentage, 222nd in team three-point percentage, and 248th in three-point volume. Opponents are scoring 73.2 points per game against the Orange, which is the 161st-best rate in the country. They rank 156th in defensive rating, 136th in opponents’ field-goal percentage, 180th in opponent three-point percentage, and they block the second-most shots per game in the country.

Donnie Freeman headlines the production for Syracuse, averaging 17.1 points and 7.0 rebounds. JJ Starling adds 12.0 points, 2.8 rebounds and 2.4 assists of his own, while Nate Kingz adds 11.6 points per game. Naithan George adds 10.4 points and a team-high 5.4 assists per game. William Kyle III adds 9.0 points and 7.5 rebounds, while leading the ACC with 2.7 blocks per game.

North Carolina vs. Syracuse pick, best bet

There is no doubt that North Carolina is the more talented team. But the Tar Heels are battling injuries and have struggled a bit on the road.

During the first matchup between these two teams, North Carolina out-rebounded Syracuse 41-31 and shot 44% on three-point attempts. Wilson and Veesaar led this attack, combining for 39 points and 20 rebounds. Wilson is at the epicenter of everything that the Tar Heels do. His absence was greatly felt in the previous loss to NC State. Assuming Veesaar will return, this will give some sort of boost to the Tar Heels. But it is impossible to replace a top-10 college basketball player.

Home court will also be a factor in this matchup. Syracuse is 12-4 when playing at home this season. It is also 8-8 against the spread at home, 8-6 ATS against conference opponents, 4-2 ATS against ranked opponents, 7-2 ATS with 4+ days off, and 5-1 ATS with a rest advantage. All of these factors will play in their favor for this matchup.

In contrast, North Carolina has just six losses to its name this season, and five of them have come on the road. The Tar Heels have also gone 1-3 against the spread as road favorites this year, 3-5 ATS on the road overall, and are 6-7 ATS in conference games.

Wilson’s absence is too much for me to overlook, so I’m backing Syracuse to win outright. This team already defeated Tennessee this season and took Houston to overtime earlier this year.

Best Bet: Syracuse Moneyline (+136)