This marks the last week of February, which means March is upon on. And there’s no better month for college basketball fans than March. Nevada prepared for that month by taking one of the worst losses in program history (a 16-point defeat at San Jose State) before rebounding with its biggest win of the season (a three-point victory over Utah State). What will March bring? We’re soon to see. Let’s dig into this week’s Monday Mailbag. Thanks, as always, for the questions.

Team Rankings’ latest projection for the Mountain West men’s basketball tournament winner goes as follow:

Utah State — 42 percent

San Diego State — 17.25 percent

New Mexico — 17.17 percent

Grand Canyon — 6.35 percent

Boise State — 5.87 percent

Nevada — 5.38 percent

Colorado State — 2.64 percent

UNLV — 2.25 percent

Wyoming — 0.88 percent

Fresno State — 0.19 percent

San Jose State — 0.02 percent

Air Force — 0 percent

So, you have a favorite (Utah State), two contenders (SDSU, New Mexico) and three long shots (GCU, Boise State, Nevada) with everybody else just showing up for a quick Vegas vacation. At this point, I’ll pick SDSU because it likely needs to win the event to get into the NCAA Tournament, and the Aztecs always seem to have a next gear to find if they need it despite some uneven regular-season play. Nevada is my top long shot because (a) Boise State is not consistent enough to win four games in four nights and (b) GCU doesn’t have a ton of depth, which will be an Achilles’ heel if the Antelopes have to win four games in four nights.

As for Utah State, they’ve moved into NCAA Tournament “lock” territory from ESPN, The Athletic and BartTorvik. In my latest Bracketology update, I said Utah State was not yet a “lock,” and that was written before the loss to Nevada. I only put a team in “lock” territory if they’d make the tournament even if they lost all of their remaining games. Utah State is not there yet, but the Aggies are close. They’ll be in the Dance.

Per BartTorvik, Nevada had a game score of 6 (out of 100) in the loss to San Jose State and 88 in the win over Utah State. That’s a game-over-game difference of 82. BartTorvik goes back to 2009, but we’ll just look at the Steve Alford era (since 2019). Here are the five-largest game-over-game improvements since then for Nevada:

1. 2024 — New Mexico (11 game score) to San Jose State (99 game score), +88

2. 2021 — South Dakota State (9) to George Mason (93), +84

3. 2026 — San Jose State (6) to Utah State (88), +82

4. 2020 — Boise State (22) to Air Force (99), +77

5. 2025 — San Diego State (11) to Fresno State (86), +75

So, that’s the third-largest game-over-game change. But the other four saw Nevada go from losing to a good team to pounding a bad team. The SJSU to Utah State result last week is the opposite. Nevada played poorly against a bad team before playing well against a good team, which makes that game-over-game improvement more impressive. Quite the roller-coaster ride for Nevada fans last week.

Nevada’s bubble burst with the loss at San Diego State on Valentine’s Day. The Wolf Pack just didn’t do enough in non-league to get an at-large berth in this year’s version the Mountain West, which could be a one-bid league. The SJSU loss clearly drove the nail through the at-large coffin. But the Wolf Pack’s at-large hopes were gone by that point. Where the SJSU loss really stings is in the conference standings. Had Nevada won that game, the MW standings would look like this:

1. Utah State, 13-3

2t. San Diego State, 12-4

2t. New Mexico, 12-4

4. Nevada, 11-5

Nevada hosts New Mexico on Tuesday and San Diego State hosts Utah State on Wednesday. If Nevada and SDSU won those games, the league standings would then look like this:

1t. Utah State, 13-4

1t. San Diego State, 13-4

3t. New Mexico, 12-5

3t. Nevada, 12-5

Essentially, Nevada’s loss to SJSU cost it a shot at the MW title, which was slim before the loss to the Spartans but non-existent after it. I guess you could see a four-way tie for first at 14-6, but that would take a ton of major miracles. But what’s done is done. If Nevada learns from its loss to SJSU and wins the MW Tournament to reach the NCAA Tournament, then it was a loss worth taking.

1) Nevada basketball’s odds of winning the Mountain West Tournament, as listed above, are 5.38 percent, which ranks sixth among 12 Mountain West schools. The Wolf Pack matches up well with most of the MW. The two teams I would not want to see if I were Nevada are San Diego State and Grand Canyon, due to their length. Teams that can defend without fouling give Nevada trouble since the Wolf Pack’s bread and butter on offense is getting to the line (10th in the nation in free throw rate and 20th in free throw attempts per game). Utah State doesn’t have a ton of length down low, so that’s not a bad matchup for Nevada. New Mexico has more length than Utah State, but the Lobos bigs are more bulky than big and athletic.

2) I’ll give the Lakers a 10 percent shot of landing Giannis Antetokounmpo this offseason. My guess is the Knicks.

Nevada will get an invitation to the NIT if it is not in the NCAA Tournament. Whether it accepts such an invitation is another question.

I would give Nevada 70 percent odds of playing in the NIT this postseason. The Wolf Pack players voted against playing in the tournament last year, as many were headed to the transfer portal and Nevada was already injury-depleted. It could not have fielded a competitive roster. While the College Basketball Crown leapt over the NIT last year in field quality, that tournament has been whittled down from 16 teams to eight and won’t be played this year until April 1-5, which seems late in the offseason cycle. By that point, transfer-portal declarations will be made. My guess (and it’s just a guess) is Nevada would pick the NIT over the Crown, in part because Steve Alford is old school and probably has a lot of respect for the NIT. If Nevada doesn’t make the NCAA Tournament, it’d be nice to see the Wolf Pack in another postseason tournament. That has not happened in the Alford era.

It depends on the matchup. Joel Armotrading will get more minutes against big teams while Kaleb Lowery makes more sense against smaller teams. Nevada is at its best when it’s making threes and drawing fouls, so playing undersized with Lowery seems more ideal, although Armotrading is elite at getting fouled. It’s nice to have that versatility to play multiple lineups that can be effective. Nevada has been better with Lowery on the court than Armotrading, but it’s going to be a matchup thing. Armotrading probably gets more minutes Tuesday against New Mexico due to the Lobos’ size.

Both Tayshawn Comer and Tyler Rolison have been inconsistent at point guard, so I don’t see a change coming at the starting spot. Comer has been more effective than Rolison, by a good margin. But like the answer above, it’s nice to have options if somebody is having an off game. When Rolison plays well, he makes Nevada a lot more dangerous and difficult to guard. He is Nevada’s best driver of the basketball, which, again, leads to fouls. But he’s also having the worst rate-stats season of his career, so Comer deserves to start with Rolison in reserve if Comer is struggling. Both played well in the win over Utah State. Comer had 12 points and seven assists on 3-of-6 shooting; Rolison had nine points and six assists on 4-of-7 shooting.

A lot more. Generally speaking, when your best players play well, you win more games. That’s true of every team in the nation.

Chuck Bailey III was not listed on Nevada’s “availability” report before the Utah State game, which would make him a DNP-CD (did not play-coaches decision) against the Aggies.

Depends on what is going on. For the 2023 tournament, I was at a mandatory Little League safety meeting when Nevada was the last team to make it in the field of 68, so I was watching the Selection Show on my phone via quick peaks. I don’t treat Selection Sunday so much as a holiday as the NCAA Tournament’s first-round games on Thursday and Friday, which is the best 48 hours of sports on the yearly calendar. That’s why I don’t want to see the tournament field expand to include more Tuesday and Wednesday “First Four” games. You’re watering down the product at that point.

If you’re mandating I spend all $10 million on NIL, then it wouldn’t go into facility investment. Generally speaking, facility investment comes before NIL because that is foundational growth in recruiting and retention efforts that doesn’t change from year to year like NIL funding. Here is how I would allocate that $10 million NIL annual spend:

* Football, $4.25 million

* Men’s basketball, $3 million

* Softball, $1.5 million

* Baseball, $750,000

* Women’s basketball, $250,000

* Other sports, $250,000

I’ve long said Nevada should pick one female sport and go all-in on that sport. I would pick softball where a $1.5 million NIL/revenue share budget could get you to a Women’s College World Series.

The Pac-12 adding Texas State was more valuable because the Bobcats got the conference to the minimum requirement of eight football members to become an FBS conference. I love North Dakota State football’s add for the Mountain West. But Texas State’s value is that it made the Pac-12 an FBS league and didn’t require that conference having to take an FCS school like Sacramento State as a full member. I would have loved to have seen the MW add Texas State instead of UTEP. The Bobcats have more upside and both bring the Texas market into the fold.

1) It’s hot. It’s a 9 out of 10. Amanda Levens has one more year left on her contract worth $260,000 in guaranteed money, so she could be back for a 10th season. But Nevada is one defeat from its third 20-loss season in the last four years and hasn’t had a winning record since 2021-22. Levens is 124-151 during her tenure. There have certainly been some bright spots. But Nevada has just three winning seasons (overall and in MW play) during her nine-year tenure.

2) San Diego State is 16-1 in league with no other team better than 13-4. I’ll take the Aztecs with Colorado State (fourth in the league at 12-5) as my sleeper.

I would have added Sacramento State over UC Davis with the major caveat I don’t have the resources or time to fully vet both candidacies, and there appeared to be major red flags with Sac State, which was boasting NIL pledges and stadium developments that bordered on outlandish. Sac State also seemed to skip over the Mountain West in its goal to appeal to the Pac-12, which had to be off-putting to the MW. Literally today, the consulting firm that authored the feasibility study used by Sac State in its move to the MAC disputed how the Hornets publicly displayed those figures. With Sac State, there seems to be more sizzle than steak.

I discussed Sac State vs. UC Davis above, and I doubt the Aggies join the Mountain West in football by 2028. That’s a longer-term goal with no guarantees.

You cannot rule out the college football gods guiding UC Davis to the Mountain West to ensure we had a Ball-Sac matchup in the MAC simply for the puns.

I would bet against each team joining the Mountain West and put the odds at the following in the next three years:

Toledo, 50/1

South Dakota State, 100/1

Montana, 200/1

Montana State, 200/1

Tarleton State, 400/1

That would have been the ideal outcome for all conferences, but Texas and Oklahoma going from the Big 12 to the SEC in all sports triggered a series of changes that have damaged college sports forever. If there could have been football-only realignment, that would have been ideal. But there wasn’t much planning put into the latest wave of conference affiliation change. Obviously.

1) Ole Miss is 8-0 and moved into the Top 25 today, so Nevada baseball being swept by the Rebels is not the end of the world. The Wolf Pack challenged itself with an elite opponent and fell quite a bit short in that series. But I like challenging your team. Nevada bounced back with a sweep of Utah Valley. The last two games were closer than you’d like, although Utah Valley won the WAC Tournament last year and played in an NCAA Regional. It’s no slouch. Nevada’s starting pitching has been a little iffy thus far, but it’s still really early. The Wolf Pack, sitting at 3-3, still has a nice upside.

2) Nevada softball (8-7) has proven to be a top-50-caliber team that just can’t finish off a win against a Top 25 team. The Wolf Pack has held late leads against Arizona State, Arizona and UCLA, and had LSU tied late as well. If I were Nevada, I’d be encouraged by the level of play shown but discouraged an NCAA Tournament at-large spot is likely out of reach unless the Wolf Pack sweeps Oregon (it has two games against the Ducks) or is nearly perfect in MW play.

I covered this topic many years ago (back in 2012), which you can read about here. Here is the key snippet of that article.

“If you look bottom line to bottom line, it looks like UNLV gets a lot more money, but that’s not the case as far as disposable money,” said Vic Redding, the Nevada System of Higher Education’s vice chancellor for finance and administration.

Redding, who was recently asked by the Board of Regents to look into the apparent discrepancy, said that while UNLV athletics appears to get more money that’s not the reality. Both athletic departments receive state money through three streams: scholarship waivers for student-athletes; administration funds for operations and salaries; and facility operation and maintenance. It is this third category that has contributed to UNLV’s nearly $11 million advantage.

Since 2006, UNLV athletics has received $21.7 million in facility maintenance (things like janitorial salaries and utilities); Nevada has received $9.6 million. However, that is not usable money. While the money is included in the athletic budget as state revenue, it is passed directly on to the individual universities. Since UNLV’s facilities cover 279,111 square feet and Nevada’s cover 154,460 square feet, UNLV gets a larger check for facility maintenance. If you strip away that money, the two schools have basically received the same amount of disposable money via tuition waivers and day-to-day operational money.

To answer your second question, I don’t think that state-funding model will change given the south slant to the Board of Regents composition. And, yes, Nevada got $5,785,323 in state funding in FY25 to UNLV’s $8,395,899.

T-Mobile is way too big and too expensive to host the NIAA tournaments. But when the North hosts, the tournaments should all be at Lawlor Events Center. And when the South hosts, the tournaments should all be at Cox Pavilion. That couldn’t happen this year because Nevada men’s basketball had a game against Utah State at Lawlor on Saturday, the same day as the state championship games.

I would not bank on that because of the increased cost. Nevada athletics is far more likely to cut a Division I program than add one as it gets into the revenue-sharing business. If you can get one donor to underwrite a program, you could add it to the Division I offerings. But adding hockey (or any other sport) is an expensive line item.

Winter Games: Ski jumping

Summer Games: Table tennis

My most watched Olympic event was curling. In fact, I watched more curling than all the other sports combined. Largely because curling seems to always be on. I was gutted for the Switzerland women’s team, which lost to Sweden in the final. Switzerland has a dominant curling team led by skipper Silvana Tirinzoni but can’t get gold at the Olympics. Tirinzoni is a four-time world champion and seven-time Grand Slam champion. But no Olympic gold.

I also watched a ton of youth flag football national championship games on ESPN yesterday. I have no idea why. But some of the 10-and-under girls have cannons. It was impressive.

I can’t see that happening. Formed in 2003, the Reno Tahoe Winter Games Coalition had a good run but in 2018 declined to bid on 2030 Games and seems to be inactive now.

I’m no Olympic hockey expert, but it probably is. And if there weren’t 18 minutes remaining in the third period, you could argue it’s the best save in hockey history given the global-sport implications. There was perhaps too much time left on the clock to say that, as lots couldn’t have happened if that goal went in. But Connor Hellebuyck should have won Olympic MVP over Connor McDavid for that gold-medal game effort. Canada was averaging 5.4 goals per game in the Olympics before being held to one goal on 42 shots against Hellebuyck.

When Mo Seider was on the ice for Germany’s 6-2 loss to Slovakia in the quarterfinals, Träger der Adler outscored Slovakia, 1-0. When he was off the ice, Germany was outscored 6-1. Can we get Seider some help, Germany? He’s playing with dudes named JJ Peterka, Tim Stutzle, Jonas Muller and Josh Samanski. C’mon on! Do better. Build some hockey factory so Seider doesn’t have to play with scrubs.

The WNBA hit the revenue-sharing threshold for the first time in 2025, so losing a season to labor strife in 2026 would be shortsighted and detrimental to the league. The same applies to MLB, which is making bookoo bucks. When everybody is making money, you have to find a way to get an agreement without game disruption. We don’t know if the WNBA is formally profitable. But there’s legitimate momentum in the league. And MLB has plenty of reason to continue its momentum.

The lesson to be learned from Banana Ball is making sporting events fast-paced, fan-first, high-engagement entertainment is a winning formula. I personally do not understand the appeal of Banana Ball, which butchers my favorite sport. But the league’s unconventional formula has appealed to a mainstream audience, so any organization looking to improve attendance should be studying and applying lessons from Banana Ball.

NL surprise team: Miami Marlins (they will finish above one of the Phillies, Mets or Braves, who all enter the season more ballyhooed)

NL surprise player: Reds INF Matt McLain (he was terrible last year but very good in 2023 before a shoulder injury wiped out his 2024 season)

AL surprise team: Texas Rangers (would not be surprised to see them win the West over the Mariners and Astros; Rangers had a better run differential than both last year)

AL surprise player: Red Sox INF Caleb Durbin (he will beat Aaron Judge for AL MVP following a 30-dinger/40-steal season)

World Series pick: Dodgers over Tigers (if everybody is complaining the Dodgers are ruining baseball, they might as well really ruin it)

See y’all next week!

Sports columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. He writes a weekly Monday Mailbag despite it giving him a headache and it taking several hours to write. But people seem to like it, so he does it anyway. Contact him at crmurray@sbgtv.com or follow him on Twitter @ByChrisMurray.