Oldfield’s prediction: Cason Wallace continues to make the most of his floor time with SGA and Jalen Williams sidelined.
Feb 25, 2026 • 10:12 ET
• 4 min read
EXPERT PICK – PROP
Cason Wallace o11.5 Points Scored (-120)
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Oklahoma City Thunder guard Cason Wallace (22) dribbles against the Toronto Raptors.
It’s a showdown of No. 1 seeds tonight in Motor City, with the Detroit Pistons trying to cement their NBA Finals credentials against the depleted but relentless Oklahoma City Thunder.
Some of Detroit’s flaws were exposed earlier this week in a double-digit loss to the Spurs, and my Thunder vs. Pistons predictions expect OKC to put up a fight despite key absences, with Cason Wallace doing his best SGA impression.
Take a closer look at this marquee matchup with my free NBA picks on Wednesday, February 25.
Thunder vs Pistons prediction
Thunder vs Pistons best bet: Cason Wallace Over 11.5 points (-120)
With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams on the shelf, the stage was set for a monster Chet Holmgren stretch. Instead, it’s increasingly been the Cason Wallace show.
Wallace torched the Raptors on Tuesday with 27 points on 11-for-16 shooting, and that’s where Oklahoma City Thunder coach Mark Daigneault went when he needed a bucket. The third-year guard is averaging 14.2 points per game in February, and he’s 8-for-13 from beyond the arc in his last two.
Wallace has cashed this Over in five of his past six road outings, and he’ll be the X-factor against a physical Detroit Pistons defense tonight.
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Thunder vs Pistons same-game parlay
Wallace has played 30-plus minutes in three straight, and the heavy lifting should continue. This week’s scoring tear hasn’t taken anything away from his defense, and he’s grabbed 4+ rebounds in six of his last seven contests.
Even on the second night of a back-to-back set, I see OKC bringing the fight. The visitors are 7-2-1 against the spread in their past 10 games and 21-7 straight up on the road. Cade Cunningham is coming off a 5-for-26 dud against the Spurs, and now he’ll have to deal with the Thunder’s perimeter stoppers.
Thunder vs Pistons SGP
Cason Wallace Over 11.5 points
Cason Wallace Over 3.5 rebounds
Thunder +8.5
Our “from downtown” SGP: Boards bonanza!
With two terrific defensive teams, I’m banking on a lot of missed shots, and this SGP taps into a feeding frenzy on the glass at both ends. Cade has grabbed 6+ rebounds in five straight, and Jalen Duren has had 13+ in consecutive contests, while OKC had a 49-34 rebounding edge over Toronto last night.
Thunder vs Pistons SGP
Cade Cunningham Over 5.5 rebounds
Jalen Duren Over 11.5 rebounds
Cason Wallace Over 3.5 rebounds
Lu Dort Over 3.5 rebounds
Thunder vs Pistons odds
Spread: Thunder +8 (-110) | Pistons -8 (-110)
Moneyline: Thunder +240 | Pistons -300
Over/Under: Over 220.5 (-110) | Under 220.5 (-110)
Thunder vs Pistons betting trend to know
The Pistons are just 8-13 ATS against Western Conference opponents this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Pistons.
How to watch Thunder vs Pistons
Location
Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI
Date
Wednesday, February 25, 2026
Tip-off
7:30 p.m. ET
TV
ESPN
Thunder vs Pistons latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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Tom Oldfield’s sports writing journey over the past 20 years has taken him from the Premier League and Champions League to the NFL, NBA, WNBA and MLB, with a wide range of articles and betting previews. Tom has worked closely with London’s Sportsbeat sports news agency as well as (thrillingly!) covering the Toronto Raptors’ 2019 NBA championship run, and he has appeared on BBC World Service and The Back Page podcast.
A graduate of the University of Nottingham in the UK, he is the author of biographies on Cristiano Ronaldo, Rafael Nadal, Gary Neville and Cesc Fabregas, and he co-authors a long-running series of children’s soccer books with his brother, Matt.
As a regular bettor across the top sports leagues, particularly with FanDuel and bet365, he is well versed on all the major markets and the next big game is rarely far from his thoughts. The best betting advice he has received is to monitor multiple sportsbooks to grab the best possible value.
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