Bill Yin breaks down his prediction and pick for tonight’s game between the OKC Thunder and Denver Nuggets.
The 37-22 Nuggets will host the 45-15 Thunder tonight in a Western Conference battle between the fourth and first seeds, respectively. The Nuggets will still be missing Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson, while Jamal Murray is listed as Questionable. The Thunder will be without Ajay Mitchell and Jalen Williams.
The Thunder are 8.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook with the total for this game set at 233.5 points.
Thunder vs. Nuggets prediction, preview
The Thunder are looking to repeat their title run from last season and look poised to do so. They’re pairing a high octane offense (117.6 OFFRTG) with the best defense in the league (106.4 DEFRTG). The defense is telling of a championship caliber team, given they’re replicating their defensive intensity from last season (106.6 DEFRTG), because even on bad shooting nights they can win games through getting stops. This kind of defensive structure not only belies elite roster construction, but also effort, which tells you all you need to know about OKC’s championship pedigree. They’re not content with cutting back just because they already won, they clearly want (and need) to do it again. Their offense prioritizes getting possessions, protecting the ball and abusing drive-and-kick volume threes. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is having another strong season anchoring this offense and will return tonight from injury. His 31.8 PPG and 6.4 APG on .554/.892/.390 shooting splits are elite marks and underscore another MVP-worthy season. He’s leading the league in made baskets while setting a career-high in FG%.
There’s another MVP candidate on the other end, Nikola Jokic. Jokic has once again made this Nuggets’ offense unstoppable, orchestrating a 120.7 OFFRTG (1st in NBA) while averaging a triple double: 28.8 PPG, 12.5 RPG (1st in NBA), and 10.4 APG (1st in NBA). Denver’s offense is smooth and well-oiled, running on cuts and good spacing with Jokic serving as the primary hub. They’re slower in pace compared to other teams, but they generate tons of assists through Jokic and hockey-passes around the arc. They’re shooting 39.3% from deep as a team and demand other teams to play their shooters close on the perimeter, further alleviating pressure away from Jokic, who is a one-man machine in elbow, the post, or the short roll (or wherever he wants to be, frankly). Denver’s defense, however, has been subpar. The Nuggets are the 20th ranked defense this season, a low mark that’s exacerbated by Aaron Gordon’s injury, and need to fix things on that end if they want to truly contend.
Thunder vs. Nuggets pick, best bet
Best Bet: OKC Thunder -7.5 (-120)
Tonight’s a home game for the Thunder. It’ll be SGA’s first game back in almost a month, and I’m expecting the Thunder to capitalize on the Nuggets’ defensive weaknesses while conceding few points of their own, even against a humming machine like Denver’s. Jamal Murray is also listed as Questionable, which will make things even tougher for the Nuggets to cover this spread.