There are just 12 days until the 68 teams with a chance to win the national championship are officially set for the 2026 men’s NCAA tournament.
But are there actually 68 teams — of the 365 across Division I men’s college basketball — that can win a title?
Probably not.
We asked our college basketball experts Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf to continue the ESPN tradition of selecting the eight teams that have the best chance to claim the national title — while also eliminating the other 357 from consideration.
Every Division I men’s college basketball team, listed alphabetically, has been split into four different categories: “ineligible,” “no clear path,” “near misses” and “could win it all.” Those eight in that final category? They have the best chance to lift the trophy in Indianapolis on April 6.
Jump to:
The near misses | The eight contenders
The 5 ineligible teams
The 334 teams with no clear path
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions
Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners
Central Connecticut Blue Devils
Charleston Southern Buccaneers
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
Florida International Panthers
George Washington Revolutionaries
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils
South Carolina Upstate Spartans
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders
The 18 near misses
The 8 that could win it all
During Big 12 media day in Kansas City, Missouri, in October, coach Tommy Lloyd seemed baffled by the lack of questions directed his way. “That’s it? No more questions? OK,” Lloyd said to the quiet room before he and his Arizona players exited the stage. At the time, the Wildcats were picked to finish fourth in the Big 12, behind Kansas, BYU and Texas Tech. They weren’t the biggest storyline in the league. AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, a renewed Houston squad fresh off a national runner-up finish and the return of All-AmericanJT Toppinto the Red Raiders were all bigger stories then.
Fast forward to now: Arizona has lost just two games — on the road to a short-handed Jayhawks squad and in overtime at home to a fully healthy Texas Tech team — since starting the season 23-0. Today’s NIL climate has turned head coaches into general managers. Lloyd has embraced his role as a head coach and a general manager in the NIL era to build this team. Freshmen Brayden Burries and Koa Peat are projected first-round picks in June’s NBA draft. Jaden Bradley is the veteran who has held this group together. Motiejus Krivas has become an All-Big 12 talent after missing most of last season due to injury. AndTobe Awaka is one of the top reserves in America.
That’s real depth, and it has the Wildcats as one of the nation’s best defensive squads (third in adjusted efficiency) as well as an offensive juggernaut that is averaging 87.2 points per game (13th in the country). This group also has wins over Florida, UConn, Alabama and Houston — four other teams that could cut down the nets in April. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Arizona captured its first national title in nearly 30 years. — Medcalf
In 2024-25,Duke’sCooper Flaggput together one of the most prolific seasons in recent college basketball history, averaging 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.4 steals, 1.4 blocks and 39% from beyond the arc to capture the Wooden Award. He took his team to the Final Four.
Cameron Boozer could be even better.
Boozer (22.5 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 4.0 APG, 40% from beyond the arc) is a 6-foot-9, 250-pound force leading a Blue Devils team that has the best defense in America and also scores 83 points a game. His offensive rating on KenPom is 134.3, higher than Flagg’s (123) from last season.
Boozer also is supported by a better defensive team and a strong cast of returners, asPatrick Ngongba II (10.7 PPG, 1.1 BPG), Isaiah Evans (14.7 PPG) and Caleb Foster (8.7 PPG, 42% from beyond the arc) are all better than they were a season ago. Maliq Brown can guard any player Duke encounters. Boozer’s twin brother, Cayden Boozer, leads a collection of young players who’ve contributed too.
The Blue Devils have more depth, experience and defensive prowess this season. And yes, they might also have a Wooden Award winner who surpasses last season’s recipient. — Medcalf
The Gators didn’t lose their third game of the 2024-25 campaign until Feb. 1 (to Tennessee). But Todd Golden’s squad needed a longer runway this season to reach its potential, after losing its starting backcourt — including Final Four Most Outstanding PlayerWalter Clayton Jr.— from that title team. The new backcourt of Xaivian Lee and Boogie Flandweren’t at the same level, and the reigning national champions lost their third game on Dec. 2 (to Duke).
Yet, the Gators look just as dangerous now as last season’s group. They haven’t lost a game since Jan. 24. During that nine-game winning streak, they’ve been America’s best team (eighth in adjusted offensive efficiency, first in adjusted defensive efficiency), according to BartTorvik.
Thomas Haugh is a projected lottery pick and an All-America contender. Alex Condon is a strong veteran presence. Rueben Chinyelu is one of the top defensive players in the country. And that frontcourt has been Florida’s stabilizer this season.
The Lee-Fland backcourt is now an asset too. Lee has produced 52 assists and just 20 turnovers across the winning streak, while Fland has averaged 12.2 points and collected 20 steals. The team also has held opponents to an impressive 89.7 points per 100 possessions with Fland and Lee on the court together, per EvanMiya.
Florida is hitting all of the right notes at the right moment as it prepares to defend its crown. — Medcalf
Through the first 25 games, Houston looked as strong a title contender as any team in college basketball. Then the Cougars lost three in a row in the second half of February, raising questions about whether they even belonged in this category. But their inclusion here is a bet on their guards, on their defensive potential — and on Kelvin Sampson.
Defensively, this group isn’t as suffocating as some previous iterations of Sampson-coached teams, but it still has the ability to shut opponents down and still forces turnovers at a higher rate than any other team in the Big 12. Offensively, Houston doesn’t have the interior presence J’Wan Roberts provided for multiple seasons.
What these Cougars do have, however, is one of the elite shotmaking and playmaking perimeter trios in the country. Kingston Flemings is a future top-10 draft pick, and he has established himself as a high-level freshman capable of carrying the offense. Emanuel Sharp is a terrific perimeter shooter with plenty of big-game experience on his résumé. And then there’s Milos Uzan, who might be the key to a deep run. Uzan hasn’t been as consistent as he was in Big 12 play a season ago, but he has been shooting the ball incredibly well lately and is coming off a 26-point performance over the weekend.
Houston might have more question marks than in the past couple of campaigns, but we’re not betting against Sampson, and we’re not betting against a backcourt as good as this one. — Borzello
The Illini were the last to make it into this group, over a short list that also included St. John’s, Arkansas and Alabama. Admittedly, we initially tried to pick a team ranked outside the top 10 in predictive metrics or off the top three lines in projected brackets, but then the Red Storm and the Razorbacks each lost a game by more than 30 points, which felt like disqualifying defeats. While we still have questions about Illinois, we trust its defense and consistency a bit more than that of the Crimson Tide’s.
Illinois has the best offense in the country and one of the most efficient offenses in the past 30 years. The Illini are heavily reliant on the 3-point shot, but they have so many different ways to beat you at that end of the floor. There’s the playmaking of Keaton Wagler and Kylan Boswell, the versatility of David Mirkovic, the scoring ability of Andrej Stojakovic, the shooting of Jake Davis and Ben Humrichous, and the inside-outside game of 7-footers Tomislav Ivisic and Zvonimir Ivisic.
TheIllini have lost four of their past six games entering the week — but three of those came in overtime, and the fourth was to Michigan. Despite those defeats, they’re still fifth in the country in adjusted efficiency margin at Torvik for the month of February, with a defensive ranking in the top 25 that is an improvement on their seasonlong numbers.
The big question is whether they can guard consistently against high-level competition for six straight games in the NCAA tournament. They haven’t shown they’re able to do that since their schedule stiffened, but with all that firepower on the offensive end, Brad Underwood’s team might also simply be able to outscore teams to get to the end. — Borzello
The Cyclones haven’t made justifying their inclusion here easy on us. In the six games before Monday’s loss to Arizona, they were 70th in adjusted offensive efficiency. Coupled with Saturday’s lackluster appearance in a 82-73 home loss to a short-handed Texas Tech team, there are concerns about this group. For every great moment they’ve had this season — wins over St. John’s, Purdue, Kansas and Houston — they’ve also lost to TCU, Cincinnati, Texas Tech and BYU, with the latter two teams also missing two of their best players at the time.
But let’s focus on the ceiling here, because the ceiling is high for a T.J. Otzelberger-led squad that has been one of America’s best defensive teams all season and features a trio few opponents can match.
Tamin Lipsey battled multiple injuries last season but is healthy now and is, according to his coach, the best point guard in the country. Lipsey is a great passer and a critical defender for this crew that was firmly in the mix for the Big 12 title before its latest downturn. Joshua Jefferson is a legitimate national player of the year contender, and Milan Momcilovic is the best 3-point shooter in the country. Those are all good things for a team that hasn’t been to the Final Four since 1944.
It’s not exactly clear which Iowa State will show up in the NCAA tournament. It is fair, however, to assume that the best version of this program can compete with any opponent in the field. The Cyclones have proved that much with their best days this season. — Medcalf
Michigan might no longer be the overwhelming favorite to cut down the nets in Indianapolis after its Feb. 21 loss to Duke in Washington, D.C. But the Wolverines still might be at the top of the first tier of contenders. They entered the week as the only team in the country to rank in the top five in offensive and defensive rating at KenPom, outscoring opponents by an average of 20.5 points with 10 wins coming by at least 30 points.
The headline for Dusty May’s team is a supersize frontcourt built last spring via the transfer portal. Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr.and Aday Mara all played the center spot at their previous schools, but they have somehow been able to adjust their games to fit together on the court at the same time. They simply overwhelm opponents at both ends of the floor. What separates Michigan, however, is that despite the size advantage, they’re also able to outrun teams down the floor and outshoot teams from the perimeter. It’s a combination rarely seen in college basketball.
Whether Michigan can ultimately lift the trophy in early April will be determined by its guard play, particularly after the season-ending injury to backup guard L.J. Cason. Elliot Cadeau has made dramatic improvements as a shooter and a decision-maker since transferring from North Carolina after last season, while Trey McKenney has become an impact player off the bench. Nimari Burnett and Roddy Gayle Jr.are veteran two-way players. But in Michigan’s two losses this season, those guards struggled to make shots from the perimeter — 6-of-22 combined from 3 against Wisconsin and 2-of-14 versus Duke — and stay in front of opposing guards.
When the Wolverines are playing with pace, making shots and crashing the glass, though? There’s not a team in the country that can handle them. — Borzello
If there was any doubt about UConn’s inclusion here, the Huskies made sure to solidify their position with an eye-popping 72-40 win over St. John’s on Wednesday in one of the most impressive performances we’ve seen from any team this season.
It hasn’t been smooth sailing for Dan Hurley’s team, though. There have been a variety of injuries, less-than-convincing wins over inferior Big East teams and disappointing losses to Creighton and St. John’s (on Feb. 6). But there’s no denying this team’s ceiling, as we saw in its more recent matchup with the Red Storm.
UConn has one of the best two-way point guards in the country in Silas Demary Jr.In Alex Karaban, Solo Ball and Braylon Mullins, the Huskies have a shotmaking trio matched by very few teams. There’s plenty of depth. And Hurley has a top-10 defense, one that was among the very best in America for the first three months of the season.
There are two keys moving forward for UConn: Tarris Reed Jr.and the Huskies’ 3-point shooting. Reed played like one of the best big men in the country against St. John’s last week, and he has the potential to be a dominant paint presence on a nightly basis. Meanwhile, UConn’s offense took a noticeable step forward when its perimeter shots started falling. The Huskies made double-figure 3s six times in a seven-game stretch from Jan. 27 to Feb. 18; before that, they had hit that mark just four times. They are now the best 3-shooting team in the Big East.
Don’t discount UConn’s championship pedigree, either. The Huskies have a coaching staff and multiple players who have done it before — twice. That matters in March. — Borzello
]
Copyright © 2026 ESPN Internet Ventures. All rights reserved.