At this point, if the Toronto Raptors fail to make the playoffs, it’d be flagged as one of the worst beats in Toronto sports history.
Nothing will ever top the Blue Jays’ World Series heartbreaker from last year, but at -750 to make the playoffs, it’s highly unlikely the Raptors will end up in the lottery.
If you follow the discourse online regarding their recent play, Toronto’s record against Top 10 teams keeps getting paraded.
Two straight defeats this week moved them to 4-17 against the NBA’s elites.
Scroll through social media, and you’d guess that their season is falling apart.
But as expectations often go, the goal posts for this team have continuously moved as the season’s gone on.
When FanDuel first opened the win total markets for 2025-26, the Raptors started at 34.5.
By Opening Night, that got steamed to 39.5.
Present day, they’re listed at 45.5, sitting on a 35-27 record.
On FanDuel, they have a tab where you can wager on the exact seed teams will finish at.
Of all the options, Toronto’s shortest price is to finish as the No.5 seed at +195.
How many experts, analysts or talking heads can provide receipts claiming Toronto would finish that high?
Kendrick Perkins is probably the only one with evidence showcasing his Raptors support.
With Toronto sitting right in the middle, I want to split up this lookahead in two directions:
Assessing their ideal first-round opponentBetting on who falls short of the postseason behind them
The best of four bad options
There’s definitely merit to the concerns over Toronto’s track record against the best.
Even RJ Barrett addressed it recently.
“When we play these good teams, something has to change. Something has to change.”
RJ Barrett not talking around the issue and he was clearly frustrated after the loss tonight. pic.twitter.com/FKLdYUx6mw
— William Lou (@william_lou) March 6, 2026
The Raptors are 3-8 against the teams ahead of them in the East.
To their credit, they swept the Cavs 3-0, but those wins came with multiple absences.
Darius Garland missed all three, Jarrett Allen missed two, and Donovan Mitchell missed one.
The Raps have been winless against the other three teams.
As it stands, there’s no clear-cut favourite to win the East. The Top 4 share similar odds to make the NBA Finals.
Boston Celtics, +230
Cleveland Cavaliers, +260
New York Knicks, +430
Detroit Pistons, +440
It’s fascinating to see Detroit with the longest odds considering they’re still within striking distance of finishing with the NBA’s best record.
FanDuel is daring you to pick them as East champs.
In relativity to Toronto, the odds suggest they’re lining up for a first-round date against either Cleveland or New York.
Of those two, and all four for that matter, the Cavs would be my pick even if they’re +260 to make the Finals.
The Knicks are coming off another beatdown against Toronto on Tuesday sweeping the season series and extending their win streak to 10 games since the OG Anunoby trade.
All four of those losses were blowouts too; a combined 81-point deficit.
Sometimes you got to call a spade, a spade.
New York has their number and should be avoided at all costs.
With Cleveland, that 3-0 record should be thrown out the door now that James Harden is on the team.
Since the deadline, the Cavs have gone 8-3 with two of those losses coming with Harden sidelined.
They’ve also had a few statement wins over that stretch.
They beat the Nuggets, the blazing-hot Hornets, the Knicks and the Pistons.
Their offensive rating has jumped up to third sitting only behind the aforementioned Hornets and Spurs.
But even though they own the second-best East record, their net rating is only tied for fourth.
Defensively they rank in the bottom half of the conference and that’s where Toronto might find a glimmer of hope.
Their series could turn into a defence versus offence tug-of-war.
With the other three opponents, they all have the advantage on both sides of the ball.
For Toronto to have a shot, they likely have to double-down on the things they’re doing well.
The Raptors lead the league in fastbreak points at 18.8 a night.
Cleveland owns the sixth-highest frequency of transition plays allowed per game.
Toronto needs to compound that advantage to stand a chance.
The other hole in Cleveland’s game has been their rebounding.
They’re allowing the second-most second-chance points since Harden’s arrival and that’s with Allen playing all 11 games.
On the season, the Cavs are 13th in that category so maybe things normalize.
But if April arrives and it’s still a problem, that’s where head coach Darko Rajakovic will be put to the test.
Can he make enough playoff adjustments and outcoach his counterpart?
Of all four potential opponents, Cleveland is the only one where I’d even consider taking a flyer on Toronto to make the semis.
Even then, it’ll be fully price-dependent.
Cancun anyone?
Looking in the other direction, the Raptors are technically still at risk of dropping into the play-in tournament.
They only sit 1.5 games ahead of Orlando and Miami and are priced at +130 on FanDuel to drop back.
Is it a possibility? Absolutely.
Is it likely? Probably not unless injuries take them down.
What I’m fascinated by is the make-or-miss playoffs market on FanDuel.
There are essentially six teams in the mix for four playoff berths – Toronto, Philadelphia, Orlando, Miami, Charlotte and Atlanta.
The collective odds of four teams making the playoffs would equal 400 percent, yet their aggregated implied probabilities add up to 422.6 percent.
That gets me interested in hunting for opportunity.
As of writing, these are their odds to miss the playoffs, listed in order of their current seeds:
Raptors, +450
Sixers, +210
Magic, +188
Heat, +225
Hornets, +178
Hawks, -210
Let me explain why my eyes are on the Miami Heat.
For starters, their odds suggest they have the second-highest likelihood of advancing to the postseason, even though they’re presently in 10th.
There are multiple red flags to me.
First off, in the event of a tie, Miami has already gone 0-4 against Orlando.
They are 0-2 against Toronto with two games remaining and have one more against Philly to decide who wins their tiebreaker.
The Heat are currently in a neutral or negative position with all three teams ahead of them.
My second concern – Miami owns the worst record against the other five opponents. Here’s the list:
Raptors, 11-5
Sixers, 6-8
Magic, 7-7
Heat, 5-8
Hornets, 8-7
Hawks, 7-9
Should they get stuck in the play-in, they’d have to beat the Magic for the first time all year or face off against the scorching hot Hornets who are on the league’s longest current winning streak.
Charlotte has so much momentum that FanDuel has them priced as the fifth-most likely team to win the East at +2700.
A bet against the Heat is an indirect way to cash in on the Hornets’ newfound success.
While Miami has taken the first two against Charlotte this season, their matchup tonight will be a major litmus test of what’s to come.
If you’re being sold by this explanation, I’d encourage you to bet it before their tip-off at 7:00pm ET.
My final point has to do with strength of schedule.
As it stands, Miami currently owns the toughest remaining SOS of this group at .514.
They only have four remaining games against the blatant tankers – three versus Washington and one against Indiana.
Toronto has six remaining, Philly has seven and Orlando has five.
In a 9 vs. 10 matchup, I’d take Charlotte over Miami in their present form.
And to be honest, I’m quite confident the Hornets will leapfrog them in a month’s time.
Given the situation listed out and the fact that Miami gives out the second-best payout to miss the playoffs, I think it’s a great opportunity.
The Pick: Miami Heat to miss playoffs (+225)