Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Trail Blazers at Grizzlies on Wednesday.
Parity has rarely been as much of a theme in the NBA as it is right now, as the East still looks completely wide-open and the West is one Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Victor Wembanyama injury from being the same.
But every action has an equal and opposite reaction, and the 2026 NBA Draft class is also shaping up to be one of the strongest in years, with three true top prospects in Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa, and Cameron Boozer. For the NBA’s bottom-feeders, the tanking battle is on, and it’s reached a stunning low point — each of the 11 teams with the worst records in the league are currently on a losing streak, combining for 42 straight losses.
One of those streaks will have to end on Wednesday, when the Memphis Grizzlies host the Portland Trail Blazers at 8 p.m. ET. The West’s 10th-seeded Trail Blazers have lost two games in a row, while the 11th-seeded Grizzlies have dropped four straight.
Looking at each team’s injury list, the skids make sense. Portland will be without Shaedon Sharpe (fibula), with Deni Avdija (back) and Kris Murray (illness) questionable, and Memphis will be without at least Ja Morant (elbow), Zach Edey (ankle), Santi Aldama (knee), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (finger), Taj Gibson (conditioning), and Brandon Clarke (calf). Ty Jerome (thigh), Cedric Coward (knee), and Scotty Pippen Jr. (finger) are all doubtful.
The Trail Blazers are 10.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-470 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 234.5. Memphis is +360 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s final contest and offer a prediction.
Portland Trail Blazers at Memphis Grizzlies preview, prediction
To be fair, Portland isn’t actually trying to tank, and with a five-game lead over the Grizzlies, it’ll be extremely difficult for the Trail Blazers to fall back out of the postseason anyway. Back-to-back blowout losses to the Charlotte Hornets and Atlanta Hawks aren’t ideal, but all in all, Portland is a solid 15-13 since the start of January. It has suffered some injuries — Toumani Camara is the only Trail Blazer to appear in all 62 of the team’s games — but Donovan Clingan has taken a massive second-year leap, especially as a shooter, and Avdija could win Most Improved Player.
Portland’s struggles to win with its young core stands in stark contrast to Memphis’ blatant tanking tactics. The Grizzlies made a major move at the trade deadline, sending away Jaren Jackson Jr. and attempting to deal Morant. Since dealing Jackson, they haven’t been very good, going just 4-8, and they’ll likely be without their best offensive weapon, the fearless shot-creator Jerome. The lone positive for Memphis this season has been Cam Spencer’s emergence as one of the league’s best shooters, but he alone can’t make up for disappointing seasons from basically every other player on the roster.
Trail Blazers at Grizzlies pick, best bet
It’s worth noting that the sample size with Jerome on the court is minuscule because the team’s most notable free-agent signing suffered a severe calf strain in preseason and missed the first three months of the season, but in his 191 minutes on the court, the Grizzlies’ offensive rating has improved by 11.3 points per 100 possessions and their defensive rating has gotten 15.0 points per 100 possessions worse, neither of which is a sustainable number. Coward will be arguably the bigger absence, as Memphis has been 5.5 points per 100 possessions better with the rookie on the floor across his 1,284 minutes.
Either way, Portland should be well-positioned to take advantage of the Grizzlies’ 25th-ranked post-trade deadline defense, especially on the interior. Memphis wasn’t a great rim-protecting team to begin with, but since dealing Jackson, it has allowed the eighth-most shots in the restricted area and the sixth-highest percentage on such shots, which could be a huge issue against a Trail Blazers team that loves to get downhill, especially when Avdija plays. Since dealing Jackson, the Grizzlies have attempted the sixth-fewest shots per game in the restricted area, and Portland has been roughly an average rim-protecting team.
The Trail Blazers should be able to extend their advantage on the glass; without Jackson, Memphis ranks dead last with an atrocious 44.8% rebounding percentage, which would be easily the worst in NBA history across a full season. 6-foot-7 Olivier-Maxence Prosper, who’s been starting at center for the Grizzlies, will likely have a lot of trouble against the 7-foot-2 Clingan. Both teams are elite at forcing turnovers, which should benefit the less mistake-prone team (Memphis). If it struggles again with its ball security, Portland will need to be aggressive about drawing contact, as it leads the league in drawn fouls when Avdija plays.
Shooting also isn’t a huge strength for either squad. This season, the Grizzlies rank 22nd and the Trail Blazers 29th in three-point percentage. However, Portland has generated easier shots, ranking third in wide-open three-point attempts per game, while the Grizzlies rank below the Trail Blazers both since the trade deadline and overall. They’ve also conceded an above-average number of uncontested triples, and while Portland allowed a lot before the trade deadline, it has given up the second-fewest across the last month. Part of that could be a factor of missing Avdija, who’s contested shots at a career-low rate, but Jrue Holiday’s return to full health means it should be sustainable.
Ultimately, though the Trail Blazers’ turnover-prone nature could be a major issue against Memphis’ athletic young squad, they just have such a massive advantage on the interior and could be welcoming their best player back from injury. Portland’s strength on drives and dominance on the glass should be enough for a double-digit victory.
Best bet: Portland Trail Blazers -9.5 Alternate Spread (-127)