Well, here we are. This season started back with a concerning win over Marist, hit high points by sweeping Georgetown and winning the Shootout, and hit its nadir with a bizarre home loss to Santa Clara, no, a 41 point drubbing by Creighton, no, wait, blowing a 16 point second half lead to St. John’s. Anyway, it has been more down than up. At the start of the season Xavier was picked eighth in the Big East preseason poll. They currently sit tenth. They can’t finish last, they can’t finish higher than eighth.

But there is a world of difference in those three spots. Right now, St. John’s is trending toward finishing first (65% chance). That means finishing eighth or ninth means missing UConn until the final if things hold. The best way to do that is to beat Villanova. The Wildcats were picked to finish seventh in the Big East. Instead, Kevin Willard has them as a tournament lock. They have only lost to BYU, Creighton, UConn, and St. John’s this year. Two teams that were picked right next to each other have taken vastly different routes to this place.

Advertisement

Team Fingerprint

The offense is slow. Villanova is in no particular rush to shoot the ball. Under Jay Wright that was because they were going to take forever and then drain a three pointer from someone so wide open you assumed they were playing with six. This Nova doesn’t shoot like that, but they will keep the ball hot and shoot a lot from deep. They’re a decent shooting team that is decent on the glass and decent at not turning the ball over. All that decency adds up to the 43rd most efficient offense in the nation.

Defensively Villanova also keeps things slow. They do force turnovers at a pretty high rate, and they don’t send teams to the line much. While they don’t have particularly low defensive shooting ratings, they excel at running teams off the three point line. The Wildcats are also very effective at playing defense without fouling. Their defense isn’t elite, but if you want to score against them you are going to have to earn it.

Players

 

Starting matchups

 

Acaden Lewis

Point Guard

All Wright

Freshman

Class

Sophomore

6’2″, 180

Measurements

6’3″, 190

12.5/3.2/5.1

Game line

7.7/1.7/2

46.5/26.4/57.6

Shooting line

47.1/43.4/83.3

 

This guy balled out in non-con. His efficiency has taken a step back in league play, but he has maintained a team high in usage rate. He’s an awful shooter from deep and the line, but he distributes well with good ball security and he is a really good defender. If a freshman is being trusted with the ball this much and more than keeping his head above water, he’s something special.

 

Bryce Lindsay

Shooting Guard

Malik Messina-Moore

Sophomore

Class

Senior

6’3″, 194

Measurements

6’5″, 200

12.3/2/2.1

Game line

10.8/3/3.9

37.9/35/78.8

Shooting line

38/32.9/79.8

 

Lindsay continues to chuck with reckless abandon, but he’s barely making a third of his shots in league play, including just 28.8% of his 118 three-point attempt. Unlike Lewis, he doesn’t offer much when his shot isn’t falling. There just aren’t many realistic options to replace him in the lineup for Nova right now.

 

Tyler Perkins

Small Forward

Tre Carroll

Junior

Class

Senior

6’4″, 212

Measurements

6’8″, 235

13.5/5.5/1.6

Game line

18/5.7/2.6

43.8/35.3/74.4

Shooting line

50.8/35.4/70.9

 

Perkins leads the team in scoring and shot attempts, but he’s really efficient for a volume guy. His unimpressive raw numbers are down to Nova’s glacial pace, but he’s a sufficient threat at all three levels and never turns the ball over. Outside of the center position, he’s the team’s best rebounder by far.

 

Malachi Palmer

Power Forward

Filip Borovicanin

Sophomore

Class

Senior

6’6″, 212

Measurements

6’9″, 227

4.3/1.7/0.6

Game line

10.4/7.8/4.3

45.9/36.4/76.2

Shooting line

42.6/33.3/86.3

 

Usual starter Matt Hodge was having a good freshman campaign as the starting four, but he tore his ACL and is out for the year. Palmer stepped up in his place in the mid-week and seems set to take the same role today. He’s extremely efficient in very low usage thanks to making his threes and not turning the ball over. He went for 10/5/1 with a 103 ORtg in his start against St. John’s.

 

Duke Brennan

Center

Jovan Milicevic

Senior

Class

Sophomore

6’10”, 250

Measurements

6’10”, 241

12/10.4/2

Game line

12/3.9/1.3

65.5/0/61.3

Shooting line

44.9/43.4/71.2

 

This dude is an absolute ox in the paint. He leads the league in EFG% and FT rate and is top 5 in rebounding percentage on both ends. He’s not a super good free throw shooter and his defensive stats are basically non-existent aside from killing possessions on the glass, but if you find me a coach who says he wouldn’t take 12 and 10 in a half hour of play from his center every time out and I’ll find you a liar.

 

The bench is functionally Devin Askew, who was a freshman at Kentucky the same year Colby Jones was a freshman at Xavier. Jones now has over 100 professional games under his belt while Askew continues to play for NIL money. It has been well spent this year, as he’s averaging 9.9/2.4/1.9 on 40.9/42.3/87 shooting. He’s an excellent shooter and perimeter defender.

Advertisement

Braden Pierce is a 7′ freshman big getting about 7 minutes a game, rebounding well at both ends, and fouling a ton. Chris Jeffrey is a freshman guard getting about 8 minutes per game and shooting really well, albeit on just 40 attempts all year. If either of them decides the game, it will be a first.

Three Questions

– Will Tre Carroll play? Tre didn’t practice on Thursday as he received treatment on his right hip. At this point in time he’s a game time decision for the game on Saturday. As Xavier’s only chance to make the tournament is winning the BET it’s safe to assume that Carroll will not go unless he is 100%. Xavier will have some idea what they need by tipoff time on Saturday, so there are scenarios where just resting Carroll is the best option anyway.

– So who steps up? Against Seton Hall Filip Borovicanin really tried to be the guy, but struggles inside the arc and Jovan Milicevic and Malik Messina-Moore both taking a half off didn’t help him. Triple M seems the most likely candidate to take over the scoring reins, but Milicevic and All Wright both have big games in them. Someone needs to step up and be assertive.

Advertisement

– Could the backup bigs do a job? Against Nova the first time Anthony Robinson was effective in limited time. Both he and Pape N’Diaye were good against Seton Hall, with N’Diaye once again looking like he was on the verge of breaking out. Duke Brennan’s six offensive rebounds changed the last meeting. Running some size and length at him could change that.

Three Keys

– Keep the ball moving: We saw on Tuesday what happens when Xavier has to play one on one basketball. This team excels when the ball stays hot and bogs down very quickly when it doesn’t. Especially with Carroll likely to miss this game, Xavier has to get Nova in rotation and keep them there.

– Limit second chances: Xavier has not won a single game this season when the opponent collected more than 32% of their own misses. For some reason this team simply cannot overcome a bad night on the defensive glass. Villanova flirted with that number last time, but stayed below it. That is why Xavier was right in the game until the very end. In addition to the turnover everyone remembers, Tre Carroll also had seven defensive rebounds in that game.

Advertisement

– Push the pace: Once again, this is a game where Xavier can have success in the open floor but will struggle in the half court. Against Seton Hall the desire to run led to a couple hilarious moments where X scored fast break points after a Pirates made bucket. They need that kind of speed again on Saturday.