Miami (Ohio) might still make the NCAA Tournament, but other potential Cinderellas won’t be so lucky. Sam Greene / The Enquirer / USA Today Network via Imagn Images
March 13, 2026 6:00 am EDT
Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.
A Mid-American Conference underdog has put the best story in men’s college basketball this season in potential peril — though in the world of Bracket Watch, UMass’ win over Miami (Ohio) on Thursday also gives us the must-watch First Four matchup of Auburn versus Miami.
That would be a desirable consequence of the upset of the previously 31-0 RedHawks. But for the most part, upsets this week are only going to reduce the possibility of upsets in the NCAA Tournament. Especially considering the way rosters are constructed these days. The mid-major favorite is the friend of the basketball fan.
Already, we’ve lost some teams that could have been dangerous. Belmont, the class of the Missouri Valley, lost its first tournament game. Navy, the dominant team in the Patriot, dispatched by a half-court shot. East Tennessee State, which won the SoCon by two games, fell in the conference title game.
We’ve also had some tournaments yield maximum potential, such as the Southland (McNeese beat Stephen F. Austin, and either would have been fine), the CAA (Hofstra), the OVC (Tennessee State), the Summit (North Dakota State) and the Sun Belt (Troy).
All due respect to all remaining underdogs, the official bracket would be best served from here if Yale wins the Ivy League, Hawaii or UC Irvine claims the Big West, Howard wins the MEAC and Utah Valley follows up its regular-season title — and its payment of $1 million to stay in the tournament — by winning the WAC.
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Last four byesLast four inFirst four outNext four out
UCF
VCU
SMU
Virginia Tech
Missouri
Texas
New Mexico
San Diego State
Santa Clara
Miami (Ohio)
Oklahoma
Cincinnati
NC State
Auburn
Indiana
Seton Hall
Multi-bid conferences
SEC
11
Big Ten
9
Big 12
8
ACC
7
Big East
3
West Coast
3
Atlantic 10
2
MAC
2
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Mar 13, 2026
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