Brendan O’Sullivan takes you through his preview, prediction and pick for today’s college basketball game between Vermont and UMBC.
The America East Tournament concludes on Saturday, March 14 with a matchup between Vermont and UMBC at 11 a.m. ET.
These teams split the season series 1-1 and now get a championship matchup in March Madness.
The Retrievers are 2.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at 137.5 points.
Here’s my prediction, preview and pick for Saturday’s Vermont vs. UMBC matchup.
Vermont vs. UMBC prediction, preview
UMBC will forever be known as the first No. 16 seed to defeat a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. That was in 2018, so a lot has changed since. What hasn’t changed is the program’s excellence. It’s once again on top of the America East conference with one game standing in between an NCAA Tournament bid.
There aren’t neutral site games in the America East Tournament, so UMBC will host this matchup against Vermont. Just two games separate these teams in the conference standings, so this isn’t a lopsided matchup. The Retrievers are 23-8 overall and 14-2 in conference, while the Catamounts are 22-11 and 12-4.
Both teams are in good form, with UMBC winning 11 straight and Vermont on a five-game win streak. The major component is the teams’ split season series. The home team won both times, and UMBC has home-court advantage in the most important game of the season. It’s 14-2 at home this season, compared to Vermont’s 8-6 road record.
Vermont vs. UMBC pick, best bet
It’s not often conference championships are played at home. Home-court advantage is significant in the regular season, and it’s at least doubled in the playoffs. This is monumental for UMBC.
The Retrievers should cover the -2.5 spread and punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament again.