The Mavericks have entered the final month of a difficult regular season with a chance to secure prime positioning in the NBA draft lottery.
While they aren’t mathematically eliminated from postseason contention yet, their fate is all but sealed. Playoffstatus.com gives them a 99% chance of missing the playoffs.
Dallas is tied with the New Orleans Pelicans for the sixth-worst record in the league at 23-46. The Pelicans claimed the season series (3-1) over the Mavericks with Monday’s 129-111 victory, meaning Dallas will own the tiebreaker in the lottery standings if the teams finish with identical records.
The team with the sixth-worst record has an 8.3% chance to land the top pick and a 34.8% chance to land a top-four pick. Those odds are significantly better than the 1.8% probability the Mavericks had when they secured the No. 1 pick in last season’s draft.
Mavericks
That lightning in a bottle disguised in the form of ping-pong balls led to the selection of Cooper Flagg, who has exceeded expectations as one of the NBA’s best rookies in the last two decades. The Mavericks have found the next face of their franchise, but they need to add a complementary co-star that fits Flagg’s timeline.
The 2026 NBA draft class is projected to be full of elite prospects, with All-Star potential littered throughout the first 10 picks. The four headliners are AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer, Darryn Peterson and Caleb Wilson, but there are several others who would fit in Dallas as the Mavericks pivot to a younger core.
It’s why the position of this year’s lottery pick is nearly as important as it was in 2025. The Mavericks also hold another first-round pick from the Anthony Davis trade, which will likely be Oklahoma City’s 30th overall selection.
A top-four finish is a tall task since the Mavericks are 7.5 games behind Indiana for the worst record in the NBA and five full games behind Sacramento for the fourth-worst mark in the league. However, fifth could be obtainable since Dallas is 2.5 games behind the floundering Utah Jazz (20-48).
A fifth-place finish would be more desirable than sixth since that team has a 10.5% chance to land the No. 1 pick and a 42.1% chance to select in the top four.
The Pelicans will not benefit from strategically positioning themselves for this year’s draft lottery because their first-round pick belongs to the Atlanta Hawks.
Therefore, the Jazz pose the biggest threat of standing in the Mavericks’ way in the race for fifth place.
The Mavericks have lost eight of their last 10 games, but two of their last four were victories, including an impressive one over the Cleveland Cavaliers. However, Dallas’ path gets tougher because they have the third-most difficult schedule (54.2%) remaining with 13 games to play. The slate includes top playoff contenders such as San Antonio, Denver and the Los Angeles Lakers.
Meanwhile, Utah has lost three straight games and eight of its last 10. Its remaining schedule of 14 games has an average opponent win percentage of 53.3%, the sixth-toughest in the NBA.
It’s been difficult for the Mavericks to win this season because of their injury woes and dreadful offense, largely the result of personnel. However, a recent adjustment to playing without a true center has allowed them to generate more 3-pointers.
The pivot has also led to a resurgence for Flagg, who’s scored at least 20 points in three straight games.
He’s regained his mojo after slowly ramping up in his first five games back from a left midfoot sprain. Flagg’s consistent play should keep the Mavericks competitive for as long as he’s on the floor, but the team could benefit from adding to the loss column between now and the end of the season.
The Mavericks can also look forward to reinforcements. Big man Daniel Gafford has missed the last three games, including two with an illness. He and Klay Thompson, who rested during the team’s back-to-back in Cleveland and New Orleans, could return to the lineup for Wednesday’s game against the Atlanta Hawks — who enter the matchup with 10 straight victories, the longest active win streak in the NBA.
The draft lottery will be held in Chicago on May 10, the night when the speculation about where the Mavericks land will end.
Twitter/X: @MikeACurtis
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