March Madness bracket, predictions, picks: Best bets for every first-round game

The 2026 NCAA tournament began on Tuesday night with the First Four matchups in Dayton, Ohio, and continues for the next several weeks. With an estimated $3.3 billion wagered on March Madness (men’s and women’s tournaments combined), tourney time is one of the biggest betting events of the year.

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The NCAA tournament is all about volume, and we have 32 first-round games to study — and potentially wager on — for Thursday and Friday. Our college basketball handicappers — Corbie Craig, Matt Jacob, Matt Russell and Frank Schwab — are here to give their favorite wagers on every game.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM. This file will be updated as more best bets come in.

East region

(9) TCU vs. (8) Ohio State (-2.5, 146.5)

Russell: TCU’s top three scorers are front-court players, which is an unusual situation for any basketball team in 2026, but Jamie Dixon has discovered that’s what works best for this edition of the Horned Frogs. What it means is that TCU can be a mismatch for teams that aren’t the biggest, and no one’s accused Ohio State for bringing an abundance of size.

Dixon will be coaching his 30th NCAA tournament game, while Ohio State’s Jake Diebler’s making his debut. So, while there’s nothing inherently wrong with a line we have projected at -3.4 at THE WINDOW, getting a couple points with a veteran head coach and a lineup that’s a tricky matchup is a decent way to start the tournament proper on Thursday.

Bet: TCU +2.5

(14) North Dakota State vs. (3) Michigan State (-16.5, 143.5)

Jacob: Back in 2022, Michigan State barely survived its opening NCAA tournament game, eking out a 74-73 victory over No. 10 seed Davidson as a 1-point favorite. Since then, Spartans coach Tom Izzo has had his troops ready to roll from jump.

It started with a 72-62 rout of USC in the first round of the 2023 tournament, followed by a 69-51 pasting of Mississippi State in 2024, and an 87-62 thumping of Bryant last year.

Michigan State easily covered the point spread in all three contests. There’s no reason to think Sparty won’t continue that first-round spread-covering streak Thursday night.

First off, North Dakota State is in way over its head. The Bison, who are just five games removed from an 84-62 loss to Big Sky foe St. Thomas, didn’t face a single Power-Four opponent all season. In fact, the biggest name on North Dakota State’s schedule was Oregon State, which beat the Bison 67-65 in the season opener (then proceeded to go .500 the rest of the way).

Not only is North Dakota State taking a huge step up in class here, but it is catching a rested and angry Michigan State squad that is coming off consecutive losses to arch-rival Michigan (90-80 in the regular season finale) and UCLA (88-84 in the Big Ten tournament quarterfinals).

Michigan State also exited the Big Ten tourney early in each of the previous three seasons. You know what happened next: The Spartans’ first-round NCAA tournament opponents got buried. North Dakota State is about to join that club.

Bet: Michigan State -16.5

(16) Siena vs. (1) Duke (-28.5, 135.5)

Schwab: The line has been on the move since opening at -25.5 at some books. That has to be a reflection of the trend of the top teams being more dominant than usual over the last two NCAA tournaments, a storyline that will be tracked during this year’s event as well. Duke is dealing with injuries to two starters. Caleb Foster and his 8.5 points per game might return at some point in the tournament but probably not in the opener, though 6-foot-11 Patrick Ngongba II could return for Thursday’s game.

Either way, Duke is a machine. Siena doesn’t have much size to match Duke and doesn’t shoot 3s well enough to keep it close from beyond the arc.

Bet: Duke -28.5

(11) South Florida vs. (6) Louisville (-4.5, 164.5)

Russell: As you listen to many pundits refer to this game, you get the impression that most people are talking themselves into an upset here. Maybe the South Florida block is getting too hot, but I’m ready to pull the trigger.

Bigger and arguably more athletic, South Florida should be able take advantage of Louisville on the glass, especially if the expected return of Mikel Brown Jr. results in the Cardinals going small with their 4-out lineup.

Brown and company could always get hot, and make a bunch of threes to run away from USF, but, while at times spectacular, Brown’s shooting percentages aren’t the most efficient (41% from the field, 34% from 3).

When Brown went out with his back issues, closing lines indicate that the market commonly docked the Cards two points from their power rating, but now that Brown’s back, they’ve bumped back up even more points than that. Add in that the Bulls just outperformed the market by quite a bit in a pair of blowout wins to take the American Conference tournament, and we probably should be looking at a spread inside of a possession.

Bet: South Florida +5

No. 13 Cal Baptist vs. No. 4 Kansas (-14.5, 136.5)

Craig: Cal Baptist has been one of the more entertaining mid-majors this season, largely thanks to star point guard Dominique Daniels Jr., who has posted some video-game numbers all year, including a 47-point explosion in conference play. The Lancers’ offense often runs entirely through his ability to create off the dribble. The problem in this matchup is the physical gap.

Kansas can throw multiple long, switchable guards at Daniels Jr., starting with Melvin Council Jr., which makes life much harder in the pick-and-roll game that Cal Baptist relies on. When you combine that with Kansas’ size advantage across the rest of the floor, it becomes difficult to see the Lancers generating efficient looks consistently.

After a disappointing showing in the Big 12 tournament, Kansas also feels like a team in need of a reset. First-round tournament games often become statement spots for power programs looking to regain rhythm, and this sets up as a potential get-right opportunity. If Daniels Jr. gets bottled up even moderately, Cal Baptist’s offense doesn’t have many secondary paths. With Kansas motivated and possessing the defensive personnel to neutralize the Lancers’ engine, I’m comfortable laying the points here.

Pick: Kansas -14.5

(15) Furman vs. (2) UConn (-20.5, 136.5)

UConn looked like a title contender for the first half of the season, so it’s hard to figure out what happened when it lost four of its last 11, including bad defeats to Creighton and Marquette and a 20-point loss to St. John’s in the Big East title game. Furman isn’t great, but it has rare size for a small-conference team (fifth in the nation in average height according to KenPom). That helps. Furman doesn’t shoot 3s well, which isn’t great when taking a big underdog, but we’re just hoping the Paladins can keep it within 20.

South region

(14) Penn vs. (3) Illinois (-24.5, 150.5)

Jacob: Illinois has scored at least 70 points in every game but one this season: a 74-61 loss to UConn on a neutral court in late November.

The Illini have hit 80 points in 21 games; reached 90 points eight times; and cleared 100 points three times. So there isn’t much doubt that Illinois will do its part to push its first-round game over the total — especially against an overmatched Penn squad that yields 73.3 points per contest.

The question is: Can the Quakers contribute to the cause? I believe so. For starters, Penn not only averages a more-than-respectable 76.1 PPG, but the Ivy League champs tallied 80-plus points in four of their final seven.

What about Illinois’ defense? The epitome of hit and miss. In 10 games dating to Feb. 4, the Illini shut down Northwestern (44 points), Indiana (51) and Oregon (54) — all at home — but got lit up by Michigan State (85), Wisconsin (92), UCLA (95), Michigan (84) and Wisconsin again in the Big Ten tournament (91).

[Schwab’s picks by region: East | South | Midwest | West]

Granted, the Michigan State, UCLA and both Wisconsin games went to overtime. Still, Illinois surrendered 86, 81, 78 and 71 in regulation in those four contests.

It’s also worth noting that Penn makes 38.6% of its 3-point shots — 15th best in the nation.

It might take some time for the Quakers to get their offense going. But once Illinois opens a comfortable second-half lead and empties the bench, Penn will have plenty of opportunities to fill the bucket during garbage time. Bank on this one comfortably hurdling the total.

Bet: Over 150.5

(11) VCU vs. (6) North Carolina (-2.5, 153.5)

Jacob: When the number for this game hit the wagering board Sunday evening, bettors across the land were asking the same question: How? How can a blue blood like North Carolina only be laying a couple of points against VCU?

Answer: No Caleb Wilson.

North Carolina’s star freshman forward who paced the team in scoring, rebounding, assists, steals and blocks — and shot a blistering 57.8% from the field — suffered the first of two late-season hand injuries on Feb. 10 and is now done for the season.

To their credit, the Tar Heels weathered the storm without Wilson, winning five of their final eight games. But three of those victories came against ACC also-rans Pitt, Syracuse and Virginia Tech.

VCU comes into the NCAA tournament on a heater. The Rams have won six consecutive games, 16 of their last 17 and 21 of their last 24.

During their ongoing six-game winning streak, VCU has been remarkably consistent defensively, allowing between 62 and 65 points (63.7 PPG). I expect that defense to show out against North Carolina, which averaged just 68 points in six games against NCAA rournament teams after Wilson went down.

Another reason I’m with Russell in backing the Rams is their depth. Seven VCU players average more than 20 minutes of court time. Not only do all seven players average more than 7 points per contest, but six guys shoot better than 44% from the field and five drain more than 35% of their 3s.

Bet: VCU +2.5

(13) Troy vs. (4) Nebraska (-12.5, 137.5)

Jacob: By now you’re aware of the main storyline in this contest: Nebraska is shooting for its first NCAA tournament victory in school history — in fact, the Cornhuskers are the only power school to have never won a March Madness game.

Oddsmakers clearly believe the drought will end Thursday, as Nebraska is laying double digits against Sun Belt champion Troy. I concur with those oddsmakers that the Cornhuskers will finally secure an NCAA tourney win — I just don’t see it coming in blowout fashion.

Yes, Troy stumbled to the finish line, splitting its final 10 games. But Nebraska mirrored that finish; after starting the season 20-0, Nebraska went 6-6 down the stretch — including an ugly 74-58 loss to Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals. The Huskers also got blasted 72-52 at UCLA in their penultimate regular season contest.

[Tourney 101: How to keep your bracket from busting early]

In between, Nebraska scored a nine-point home win over Iowa, but surrendered 75 points in the process. So the stifling defense that carried the Cornhuskers for most of the season sprung some leaks late. That’s a concern, considering Troy averages 83 points per game (reaching triple digits six times).

Will the Trojans hit their scoring average Thursday? Unlikely. But 70 points certainly seems realistic. Keep this in mind, too: Troy paid big dividends as an underdog this season, going 6-1 ATS (with five outright upsets).

Nebraska’s point-spread record in its last 11 games as a double-digit chalk: 3-8.

Bet: Troy +13.5

Craig: The default instinct in a 13 vs. 4 matchup is to assume a major athleticism gap, but that’s not the case here. Troy passes the eye test. They’ve got length, physical guards, and enough downhill ability to avoid getting completely smothered by Nebraska’s defense. And while Nebraska grades out as an elite defensive unit, they’ve shown cracks. When teams can match their physicality, this group has looked far more human than the metrics suggest.

Troy’s nonconference resume backs the Trojans’ ability to get in a rock fight with wins over tournament teams like Furman and Akron, plus a victory against San Diego State and a triple-overtime battle with USC.

This isn’t a team that gets overwhelmed by better competition/ and more importantly it brings the bodies to stylistically set up drag fights. Troy is perfectly comfortable turning this into a half-court, possession-by-possession game, which is exactly how underdogs hang inside big numbers in March.

Bet: Troy +13.5

(12) High Point vs. (5) Wisconsin (-10.5, 163.5)

Russell: Wisconsin’s hoping to get 7-footer Nolan Winter back, and we’ll see whether he’s in midseason form. He might need to be for an otherwise under-sized Badgers’ team to protect the rim from Terry Anderson and High Point.

The Panthers put up points with Rob Martin running the show, and finally were willing to let Cam’Ron Fletcher loose after slowly bringing him back after a midseason injury.

Through the latter portion of the season, Wisconsin has been a more profitable underdog than a favorite, because of their reliance on outside shooting and the play of guards Nick Boyd and John Blackwell.

The Panthers were getting all the hype last season as they were just 8-point underdogs to Purdue in a 13-4 matchup, but this season, the Badgers’ giant-killer nature has rated them just high enough that any single-digit win would still stay under this number.

Bet: High Point +10.5

(10) Texas A&M vs. (7) Saint Mary’s (-3.5, 146.5)

Russell: Let’s work over some cliches. “Styles make fights” and “it’s easier to slow a team down than speed one up,” both apply nicely to Saint Mary’s, which plays at its typically slow pace and doesn’t turn the ball over (while also caring little about turning you over). Instead, the Gaels play in the halfcourt, shoot the 3 well, defend it great and rebound, leading all three categories in the three-bid WCC.

Texas A&M’s “Bucky ball” system wants the game to be frenetic, but with this game grinded down, the Aggies’ lack of size will be an issue on the glass against maybe the longest team that Randy Bennett has brought into the tournament.

Pick: Saint Mary’s -3

(15) Idaho vs. (2) Houston (-23.5, 136.5)

Schwab: This has been common for the top few seeds in the tournament: Houston opened as a 19.5-point favorite and that has moved four points toward the Cougars. Everyone remembers the favorites dominating the tournament last year. Houston is a tough opponent for anyone with their relentless style. And the Big Sky is routinely overmatched in the tournament going 3-10-1 ATS since 2010, according to Matt Eisenberg.

Bet: Houston -23.5

West region

(13) Hawai’i vs. (4) Arkansas (-15.5, 159.5)

Russell: In a Big West where it was nearly impossible to figure out who the best team in the conference was, Hawaii managed to get a double-bye and win two games to punch its ticket to the Big Dance. However, the Rainbow Warriors aren’t on the level of last year’s conference representative UCSD, and may not know what is about to hit them athletically. The Tritons were in the top 40 in KenPom last season and got a 12-seed, but Hawaii’s outside the top 100 and may have been over-seeded as a 13.

That’s a particularly bad thing when your opponent is the SEC tournament champion with one of the best players in the country, and were potentially under-seeded. With Darius Acuff and Maleek Thomas firing from deep, Hawaii’s good 3-point defense in the context of the Big West is in trouble. Plus, the Rainbows, good on the glass with 7-footer Isaac Johnson, never had to deal with the length/athleticism combination that Trevon Brazile and Malik Ewin provide down low.

Bet: Arkansas -15.5

(14) Kennesaw St. vs. (3) Gonzaga (-21.5, 154.5)

Russell: Especially if Braden Huff isn’t ready to go for their first game, Gonzaga laying 21.5 points is enough for me to pull the trigger with an underdog that I have projected at +18.3.

Kennesaw State is the 14-seed because the Selection Committee looked at the Owls as the 6-seed in Conference USA, but Kennesaw had to make a team-wide adjustment after losing its leading scorer in mid-January. Once they were able to spread the ball around more, they won three straight conference tournament games — all lined as virtual coin-flips — with relative ease.

In the end, the Owls ended up rated higher in KenPom than Oregon State — the fourth-place team in the WCC, who the Bulldogs were lined as 20.5-point favorites against in semis of the WCC Tournament, only to never get outside the number.

With bigger fish to fry going forward, look for Gonzaga — not the shooting team they’ve been historically — to get a decent lead in the mid-teens and just keep Kennesaw at arms length the rest of the way.

Bet: Kennesaw St +21.5

(9) Utah State (-1.5, 146.5) vs. (8) Villanova

Jacob: The Mountain West Conference was hardly a juggernaut this season, as evidenced by the fact that the league received just one NCAA tournament bid: automatic qualifier Utah State.

The Aggies, though, are legit — and that is why the selection committee rewarded the Mountain West regular season and tournament champs with a No. 9 seed. And why the betting market has Utah State as a slight favorite over a No. 8 seed.

Utah State did drop its final three regular season road games — including ugly losses at San Diego State (89-72) and UNLV (92-65). But the Aggies avenged all three defeats in the conference tournament, crushing UNLV (80-60), Nevada (79-66) and San Diego State (73-62).

Admittedly, Utah State’s non-conference schedule was lacking. Its two most notable opponents were VCU (80-77 neutral-site win) and South Florida (74-61 road loss). That aside, the Aggies are top 30 in both the KenPom (30th) and NCAA Net (26th) rankings; Villanova is 33rd and 36th respectively.

The Wildcats had a strong first season under new head coach Kevin Willard. But aside from a 76-66 overtime win over Wisconsin on a neutral court back in December, Villanova doesn’t have a signature victory. It also doesn’t have the firepower to hang with a well-rounded Utah State squad that averages 82.5 PPG and makes nearly 50% of its shots.

Bet: Utah State -1.5

(15) Queens vs. (2) Purdue (-25.5, 163.5)

Schwab: This line opened at -22.5 or -23.5 and moved toward the favorite. As we’ve seen with other matchups with the top teams, early bettors clearly believe it will be a very chalky tournament again. Purdue has the most efficient offense in college basketball and Queens is 322nd in defense, via KenPom. This one could get ugly.

Bet: Purdue -25.5

(10) Missouri vs. (7) Miami (FL) (-2.5, 147.5)

Jacob: I’m not exactly sure what Missouri did to warrant an at-large berth to the Big Dance.

By my count, the Tigers had five impressive victories. Two were back-to-back upsets of defending national champion and current No. 1 seed Florida (76-74 at home) and Kentucky (73-68 on the road). Missouri later eked out upsets over Texas A&M (86-85 on the road), Vanderbilt (81-80 at home) and Tennessee (73-69 at home).

On the flip side, the Tigers lost twice to Arkansas and got spanked at Oklahoma (80-64) after narrowly getting past the Sooners at home (88-87 in overtime). They also were completely filleted by Kansas (80-60) and Illinois (91-48) on neutral courts, as well as Alabama (90-64 road) and Texas (85-68 home).

Additionally, Missouri went one-and-done in the SEC tournament, as Kentucky got revenge with a 78-72 win. That capped a 13-game stretch in which the Tigers’ opponents averaged 79.9 PPG, with 10 of those foes tallying at least 78 points. Translation: Missouri’s defense has been an abomination of late.

Meanwhile, Miami went 9-3 to close the regular season — and the three losses were by margins of 3, 3 and 1 point. The Hurricanes then upset Louisville in the first round of the ACC tournament before bowing out against Virginia.

True, Miami lost 82-68 to Florida on a neutral court six weeks before Missouri (barely) upset the Gators. But look at the results of two other common opponents: The Canes thumped Ole Miss 75-66 and Notre Dame 81-69, both on the road. Mizzou traveled to both schools and fell 76-69 at Ole Miss and 76-71 at Notre Dame.

Bet: Miami (FL) -2.5

Midwest region

(9) St. Louis vs. (8) Georgia (-1.5, 169.5)

Schwab: At one point, St. Louis was 24-1 with a one-point loss to Stanford on its resume. But if the adage that you want to be playing your best heading into the tournament is true, St. Louis might be in trouble. The Billikens went 4-4 down the stretch with all four losses coming to teams ranked 78th or worse, per KenPom. Among the current momentum scores at haslametrics.com, which measure how well a team is playing relative to its level from earlier in the season, St. Louis ranks last among all college basketball teams. The Billikens are a tremendous shooting team, and could rediscover that in the NCAA tournament, but we’ll take Georgia based on St. Louis’ recent slump.

Bet: Georgia -1.5

(15) Tennessee State vs. (2) Iowa State (-24.5, 149.5)

Schwab: Inflation is happening in NCAA tournament betting. There were only two 20-point favorites among No. 2 seeds over the last four tournaments, via Matt Eisenberg’s tournament guide. This year, all four No. 2 seeds are at least 20-point favorites.

The dominance of the best teams in the early rounds of the NCAA tournament the past few years was going to affect spreads, and No. 2 seeds are 9-3 ATS the last three tournaments. Maybe you buy that the gap between the top and bottom of the bracket is becoming completely insurmountable, but there is a tax to be paid to take the teams on the top two lines this year. Some of these underdogs have to cover the inflated lines, right?

Bet: Tennessee State +24.5

(13) Hofstra vs. (4) Alabama (-12.5, 159.5)

Jacob: It’s difficult for bettors to trust Alabama in the NCAA tournament — particularly in the early going. Going back to 2012, the school is 12-7 straight-up and 9-9-1 ATS in the Big Dance — including 5-1 SU but only 2-4 ATS in the first round.

The reason the Crimson Tide are untrustworthy? They treat defense like it’s optional. In the last four NCAA tournaments, first-round opponents Robert Morris (81 points), College of Charleston (96 points), Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (75 points) and Notre Dame (78 points) have scored at will against Alabama.

Staying true to their brand, the Tide were all offense, little defense again this season: They led the nation in scoring (91.7 points per game) and ranked 352nd out of 361 teams in points allowed (83.5 per game).

So it seems there are only two logical approaches to attacking Alabama’s game against Hofstra on Friday: Take the points or pass. I’m doing neither, simply because I don’t believe Hofstra can exploit the Tide’s glaring weakness.

The Pride average 75.6 PPG and shoot just 44.2% from the field. The counterargument, of course, is that Hofstra’s defensive numbers are strong — it ranks 19th nationally in points allowed (66.1) and fourth in field-goal defense (38.7%). Problem is, the Pride haven’t come close to seeing an offense as lethal as Alabama’s.

What’s more, Hofstra’s adjusted defensive efficiency rating per KenPom (95th) is far worse than Alabama’s (67th).

As the saying goes, styles make fights. And in this case, I see Alabama’s style overwhelming Hofstra.

Bet: Alabama -12.5

March Madness bracket, predictions, picks: Best bets for every first-round game

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