An expedited experimentation process has begun for the Nuggets this month.
With a fully healthy roster at last (minus one exception), coach David Adelman has increasingly ventured away from a fixed bench rotation. Perhaps the most notable development has been his willingness to eschew a traditional backup center behind Nikola Jokic.
Entering Friday night’s clash with the Raptors, Jonas Valanciunas had played single-digit minutes in seven of Denver’s last 11 games. Prior to that stretch, his minutes had dipped below 10 only twice all season.
It portends an interesting question about Denver’s depth as the end of the regular season nears: Can Adelman play Valanciunas in a playoff series?
“It’s not about him in those units,” the first-year coach said when asked about Denver’s recent struggles with Valanciunas on the court. “It’s about those units (as a whole), all five guys not being good enough to start the second quarter.”
For most of the season, the Lithuanian big man played a stint of five to eight minutes at the start of the second and fourth quarters. He’s been an effective innings eater for the most part, easily worth the empty calories Denver traded for him last summer. But Jokic’s rest minutes have turned into a slog late in the season, especially when opposing lineups have stretched the floor against Valanciunas.
Last week, the Nuggets were outscored by eight during one of his first-half stints at San Antonio. Adelman pivoted to a smaller lineup in the second half, using Spencer Jones at the five. Jones picked and popped for multiple 3s while giving Denver a more versatile defensive look. The Nuggets overcame a 13-point fourth-quarter deficit to win.
Adelman went away from Valanciunas again for the fourth quarter of their next game in Los Angeles, playing Jones and Aaron Gordon in the frontcourt together. Valanciunas finished at three minutes — and another minus-eight. He played just shy of six minutes on Wednesday in Memphis. Adelman went small again for the fourth.
“We put some random lineups out there last week against the best teams in the league, and that’s the best way to see if something actually works,” Adelman said, “as opposed to winning a disgusting game when you try things, and you say, ‘I guess it worked because we won.’ That doesn’t translate for me.”
Valanciunas did play 19 strong minutes in a blowout win over the 76ers early this week. But the opposing center was the key variable. With Joel Embiid out, Philadelphia was leaning heavily on Andre Drummond and Adem Bona, a pair of more old-school interior anchors that Valanciunas could match up against more conveniently.
Defensive optionality is the primary concern when the minutes go poorly. Valanciunas is slow-footed and plays down the floor in pick-and-roll coverage, leaving the Nuggets more vulnerable to pick-and-pop bigs and other ripple effects of their help rotations around the floor. They’ve tried playing a lot of zone in the non-Jokic minutes to work around Valanciunas’s lack of mobility, a scheme that has yielded varying results throughout the year. With Jones and Gordon, they can switch more reliably on screens, trusting their athleticism against five-out offenses.
“In the NBA nowadays, you have to be able to have a lineup that can (switch one to five),” Adelman said. “There are too many talented small-ball lineups that abuse pick-and-roll coverage, and if you can make it a 1-on-1 game and force turnovers, that adds a layer to your team that we had when we won it. Our second unit was Jeff (Green) and Aaron. You have to be able to go there. There’s nights where Valanciunas makes total sense, and there’s nights where the matchup is the matchup, and there’s a spread five out there or whatever it may be. And you have to downsize and control the game defensively.”
Valanciunas himself pointed out earlier this season that Denver’s bigger, bulkier lineups aren’t necessarily the best-equipped to handle smaller, faster, floor-stretching personnel — even if the size advantage has its perks. “When he’s in the game,” as Adelman outlined, “he’s gotta get to the front of the rim. That’s where he’s best. He can get an offensive rebound. He can pound smaller lineups.”
It just hasn’t worked out that way in practice recently. Which leads the Nuggets back to a possible conclusion they’ve reached before, with lesser backup centers than Valanciunas: that Gordon might be their most dependable second-string five in the playoffs. Or in this case, a possible combination of Gordon and Jones, who have a 2.4 net rating together when Jokic isn’t sharing the court with them.
Or it might simply depend on the opponent. It might be that Valanciunas isn’t meant to play against Oklahoma City’s Jaylin Williams, as the Nuggets realized in recent games, but he is against Houston’s big men. Adelman is well aware that his playoff rotation might not consist of the same eight players in every feasible series.
“I’m not there,” he said when asked how close he is to knowing his playoff rotation, “but I do think the good thing is, we can ask each other questions in these coaching meetings and actually have a conversation that means something (with a healthy roster), as opposed to just guessing. The Aaron start of the fourth quarter was a major positive for me to see. And you’ve gotta find the right combination of guys that fit Aaron and Jamal (Murray). It’s not just about those two guys.”
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