March 23, 2026, 6:28 a.m. ET

The Golden State Warriors (33-38) and Dallas Mavericks (23-48) meet Monday at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET (Peacock / NBC Sports Network). Let’s analyze NBA odds around the Warriors vs. Mavericks odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

Dallas won 123-115 on Jan. 22 as a 6.5-point underdog at home, while the Over (234.5) cashed. Golden State won 126-116 on Dec. 25 as a 9-point favorite at home, while the Over (230.5) also came through.

Golden State wraps up a 6-game road trip in Big D. The Warriors lost 126-110 in Atlanta Saturday as a 7.5-point underdog as the Over (228.5) cashed. G De’Anthony Melton shook off a hand injury to net a team-best 20 points with 4 assists, 2 rebounds and a steal, while hitting 2-of-7 from downtown.

Golden State has dropped 3 in a row, while falling in 8 of the past 9 games. The Warriors are 0-3 against the spread (ATS) in the past 3 games, and 2-6 ATS across the previous 8 contests. The Over is 3-1 in the past 4 games, and 6-2 across the previous 8 outings.

Dallas lost 138-131 in overtime against the LA Clippers at home Saturday, pushing at most shops as a 7-point underdog as the Over (233.5) cashed. G Naji Marshall led the way with 28 points, while rookie F Cooper Flagg chipped in with 18 points, 10 rebounds and 8 assists while recording 4 blocks.

The Mavericks have dropped 3 in a row, while going just 2-12 SU in the past 14 outings, and 4-22 SU across the previous 26 contests. Dallas is just 1-3-1 ATS in the past 5 games, and 2-6-1 ATS across the previous 9 outings. The Over is 4-1 in the previous 5 games, allowing at least 120 points in 5 in a row, and 8 of the past 9 outings.

Golden State is 10th in the Western Conference, holding a 8 1/2-game lead over the New Orleans Pelicans for the final play-in position. The Warriors are 10 games ahead of the Mavericks, who while not officially eliminated will not make the playoffs.

Watch the NBA on Fubo!Warriors at Mavericks odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:17 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Warriors -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Mavericks +105 (bet $100 to win $105)Against the spread: Warriors -1.5 (-115) | Mavericks +1.5 (-105)Over/Under (O/U): 230.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)Warriors at Mavericks key injuries

Warriors

G Seth Curry (adductor) outG Stephen Curry (knee) outC Al Horford (calf) outG De’Anthony Melton (hand) probableG Moses Moody (wrist) questionableC Kristaps Porzingis (back) probableC Quinten Post (foot) out

Mavericks

F Caleb Martin (heel) questionableG Brandon Williams (concussion) doubtful

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Warriors at Mavericks picks and predictionsPrediction

Warriors 123, Mavericks 119

The Warriors (-125) are moderate favorites in this road game against the equally struggling Mavericks.

Golden State has dropped 3 games in a row, and 8 of the past 9 outings, so it’s hard to trust it. However, Dallas has dropped 3 in a row, and 22 of the past 26 games since Jan. 24.

When backing favorites of 1.5 or fewer points, it’s generally best to just lay the points rather than pay up for the moneyline, and very little wiggle room.

AVOID.

It’s hard to spend good money on the WARRIORS -1.5 (-115), as they’ve been bitten by the injury bug quite a bit lately. Still, Golden State has the offense to get the job done. Melton and Porzingis should be in the lineup to give the Warriors a little more offense, and Moody is 50-50 to play.

The Mavericks are mostly healthy, they’re just not a good team. Golden State has an excuse for its skid, as the injuries have piled up, and Steph Curry has been sidelined due to right patellofemoral pain syndrome.

OVER 230.5 (-110) might be the best play on the board.

Golden State hasn’t been scoring many points lately, but it has coughed up 115+ points in 4 in a row, and 7 of the past 8 games. It has allowed 110+ points in 8 consecutive outings, and 17 of the previous 18 contests.

For Dallas, it has score 120+ points in 3 of the past 4 games, and 4 of the previous 6 contests. The defense has been horrible, coughing up 129+ in 3 in a row, and at least 120 points in 8 of the previous 9 outings.

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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