The Suns will have multiple questions heading into the offseason after exceeding expectations this season. If they make the playoffs like most expect but fade out of the first round, how do they get better? Do they retain their free agents and hope internal development works, or do they go and make more trades like in the past? Fans will ask all of that and more, and, truly, there is no answer to some of these questions at this point.
One question that should be answered with a definitive yes, though, is whether to bring back Mark Williams. The real tricky question is how much and for how long the Suns should bring him back.
Williams has been injured for the latest stretch, but this has been the only big one he has missed all season. Comparing that to his previous stints in Charlotte, where he had a career high of 44 games, this is great for him. Even with missing the last 12 games, he has played in 56 this year, which proves injuries do not plague the big.
This season, he is also having some great numbers when in the Suns lineup. Averaging almost a double-double with 11.6 points and 8.1 rebounds is a big reason for the Suns’ paint scoring and second-chance opportunities. Without him in the lineup, the Suns have definitely missed his rim presence, as teams are hustling to score in the paint. Even if he is not the best defender in the world, his size and wingspan make opponents fear him at the rim because of his shot-blocking ability.
With the Suns still experimenting with Oso Ighodaro and Khaman Maluach in this rotation as well, it is key that they bring back Williams. Even if he is not a top-tier center, he does his role, and when he gets touches, he can be a major x-factor for the Suns’ offense. The question is, though, where do they find an agreement?
Since Williams is a restricted free agent, that means teams can try to overpay him and pry him away from Phoenix’s grasp. With that in mind, the Suns will have to consider every option out there, but as we know, Mat Ishbia is not scared to empty his pockets. That said, I don’t expect them to overpay for Williams and expect a reasonable number.
A middle ground for both parties would be a 3-year deal worth around $45 million, making him roughly worth $ 15 million per season. For reference, that would be the 5th-highest player on the team behind Booker, Green, and Allen. This contract would also be a bit lower than Ivica Zubac and Jarrett Allen’s contracts, but better than most backup bigs’ deals. Even guys like Wendell Carter Jr. and Daniel Gafford are seeing increases in their extensions next year, higher than what the Suns would pay Williams.
Overall, when comparing the stats of the four names above, it is fair to list him right around the money they make, as I think he is either below or on the same tier as some of the names listed above. With him also being a restricted free agent, it’s best to overpay a bit to ensure he signs. Especially with the team trading two firsts to acquire him, they cannot lose him for nothing.
When looking back at an old article when I wrote about this topic, I stated in the offseason I thought around $20 million would be a good price for Williams if he reached his full potenail, To taht I say that I do think that was a bit too much for Willimas, especually if he is not goign to be a focal point of the offense every night. For the Suns to get the best out of him, they have to play in a style that does not complement their system as much. Therefore, Williams can still be viable for this team and effective. I think that, seeing him in this system, his value looks better suited to a cheaper cost than I initially thought.
The reason to sign him to a three-year contract is also key for this team. Given that this team is already exceeding expectations, there is no rush to be in the contention circle in the next year. That said, the team will want to continue the steady development of their youth and not rush Ighodaro or Maluach into a situation they are not ready for.
So keeping Williams locked up long term gives them the flexibility to use him as their starter next season, but also gives them the option to look down the road. If one of Ighodaro or Maluach pops and shows they can be given the reins, that then allows the Suns to have a tradable contract. One at around 15 million dollars is suitable; it won’t be an overpay.
Even though he may not be the game-changer some may have hoped for, he definitely adds to this team in areas they are missing right now with him out. Truly, I do not see the Suns letting him go, as they want to continue investing in him in their front-court rotation. Unless they see a nasty overpay, I expect Williams back on a contract similar to the one I described in a role similar to this year as well. With another full year in the Valley, he will hopefully remain healthy and continue to be a great starter as the team continues to rise in the rankings.