Bill Yin breaks down his prediction and pick for tonight’s game between the Orlando Magic and Sacramento Kings.

The 38-34 Magic will host the 19-54 Kings tonight at 7 PM EST. The Kings have listed Killian Hayes and Precious Achiuwa as Questionable. Nique Clifford, and Russell Westbrook remain Out. The Magic have listed Jalen Suggs as Questionable, and have listed Anthony Black, Jonathan Isaac, and Franz Wagner as Out.

The Magic are 15.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook with the total for this game set at 230.5 points.

Magic vs. Kings prediction, preview

The Magic have dropped six straight games, with the last five all being close, tough losses. Their offense overall can be choppy but is still relatively organized, with 115.7 PPG and a nice 1.9 AST/TO ratio, which ranks tenth in the NBA. They’re also doing a good job of taking care of the ball, with 13.5% turnovers, which ranks sixth in the NBA. Their defense has been average with 113.8 DEFRTG, which is 14th in the NBA. This is a team that likes to get physical with paint touches. Jamahl Mosley’s team defends with length and uses Paolo Banchero as the main offensive engine, and he’s been carrying a big load lately with back to back 30+ point games. Banchero will likely continue handling increased offensive responsibility tonight without Franz Wagner in the picture. There’s also going to be a bigger offensive burden on Tristan da Silva and Goga Bitadze in the front court to finish possessions and stabilize the Magic’s paint presence. Mosley has recently discussed Orlando’s early-game lulls, conceding too many offensive rebounds, and empty stretches as things get close down the stretch. I’m not anticipating any of this happening tonight in a must-win spot for the reeling Magic who are looking for a playoff spot against one of the league’s worst teams.

The Kings are 19-54 and allow 121.2 PPG. They are 26th in opponent APG allowed, 18th in opponent rebounds allowed, and 28th in opponent points allowed, so it’s pretty clear where this team struggles. Sacramento has issues containing actions, struggles to finish defensive possessions, and too often gives opponents a comfortable and free offense. The bigger issue tonight is that the roster has been hollowed out as the season progresses. Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine, Keegan Murray, De’Andre Hunter, Drew Eubanks, Nique Clifford, and Russell Westbrook are all out, so Doug Christie is basically working with scraps. That leaves Sacramento leaning on a patchwork rotation where Malik Monk has had to create offense in bunches, Maxime Raynaud has been one of the few reliable interior bright spots, and bench pieces like Devin Carter and Daeqwon Plowden have had to take on larger roles. Monk just dropped 32 off the bench against Brooklyn and followed that up with a 14 assist performance with zero turnovers against the Hornets. Raynaud had 22 and 10 in that same game against Brooklyn and 30 against Philadelphia earlier in the week. Even in ugly losses, the Kings have gotten real competitive minutes from young or second-unit pieces because they simply need them. Christie has also been pretty transparent about what he wants from the group: better effort and more composure. Earlier this month he praised Westbrook for controlling the game and finding players “in the pocket,” which gets at what Sacramento misses most when its veteran playmakers are out. Right now the Kings’ best offensive possessions tend to come when Monk bends the defense, Raynaud gives them pressure at the rim, and the ball finds enough weak side shooting to keep the floor spaced. The problem is that this isn’t a long term solution, as Sacramento knows full well. They’ll look to retool and come back next season with, hopefully, a revamped roster that’s not going to languish in mediocrity again.

Magic vs. Kings pick, best Bet

Best Bet: ORL Magic -15.5 (-105)

This is a big spread but the Magic will have their foot on the gas all game long. They’re currently tied with the Hornets in the East and are looking to finish the regular season strong to make the play-in tournament. They’re in rough shape with their current losing streak, but it’s pretty much a layup spot to get a big win against a reeling Kings team.