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March Madness rumbles on with the second half of the Sweet 16 games continuing Friday night.
These matchups are as star-studded as they come, with both the Duke Blue Devils and the Michigan Wolverines in action.
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Here are my favorite March Madness picks against the spread (ATS) for each game on March 27.
March Madness picks against the spread for Friday, March 27
Matchup
Pick
St. John’s
vs
Duke
+6.5
Alabama
vs
Michigan
-9
Michigan State
vs
UConn
+2
Tennessee
vs
Iowa State
+3.5
Lines courtesy of bet365.
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Expert March Madness Sweet 16 ATS picks for FridayNo. 5 St. John’s vs No. 1 Duke: St. John’s (-110)
The Duke Blue Devils have looked vulnerable for three of the four halves they’ve played so far in the Big Dance.
That’s not what you’d expect from a team that’s a No. 1 seed and was the most commonly picked champion in March Madness brackets, nor is it what you’d expect from a team laying 6.5 points against the Big East champion.
The St. John’s Red Storm have won 21 of their last 22 games and have the nation’s best defense over the last month, which will allow them to keep things close.
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No. 4 Alabama vs No. 1 Michigan: Â Michigan (-110)
The Alabama Crimson Tide have routinely fallen short against tough opponents, losing against Purdue (80-87), Gonzaga (85-95), Arizona (75-96), Vanderbilt (90-96), and Florida (77-100).
The Michigan Wolverines are better than all of those teams, except perhaps Arizona. Dusty May’s squad is a Top 5 team on both sides of the ball and will dominate the glass, especially on offense (Bama 268th in defensive rebounding percentage), which will lead to a substantial edge in shot volume.
Popular March Madness marketsNo. 3 Michigan State vs No. 2 UConn: Â Michigan State (-115)
There’s a significant “Dan Hurley tax” baked into this line. The metrics paint the Michigan State Spartans as the slightly better team all season and over the last month.
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They’re elite on the boards and have the size and physicality down low (fifth in near-proximity defense per Haslametrics) to bother the UConn Huskies’ best player, big man Tarris Reed.
UConn’s second-best player, Silas Demery Jr., is far from 100% after missing Round 1 with a high-ankle sprain and returning in the Round 2 to go 0-for-2 off the bench.
No. 6 Tennessee vs No. 2 Iowa State: Â Tennessee (-105)
Joshua Jefferson’s questionable status looms large, and at this point, he’ll be highly hampered at best.
He’s the Iowa State Cyclones’ best rebounder and generator of offense, both of which are crucial against a Tennessee Volunteers team that cleans up the glass (second in rebounding rate) and is Top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency over the last month.
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The margins for error are very thin in this game, so I’ll side with the points. This is nearly the same line as the Kentucky game, despite the Volunteers ranking at least five points higher on nearly every analytics website than their SEC counterparts.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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