March 29, 2026, 7:02 a.m. ET

The Miami Heat (39-35) visit the Indiana Pacers (16-58) Sunday for a 5 p.m. ET tip from Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana. Let’s analyze NBA odds around the Heat vs. Pacers odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

Miami has dropped 5 of its last 6 games after losing 149-128 at the Cleveland Cavaliers Friday, failing to cover as a 5.5-point road underdog with the Over (241.5) easily hitting. F Jaime Jaquez Jr. scored a team-high 20 points, while C Bam Adebayo had a double-double (14 points, 16 rebounds). The Heat are ninth in the Eastern Conferennce, but are guaranteed a spot in the NBA Play-In Tournament. They are 2 1/2 games behind the 6-seed Atlanta Hawks.

Indiana has dropped back-to-back games after falling 114-113 against the Los Angeles Clippers Friday, covering as a 9.5-point home underdog with the Under (235.5) hitting. G Aaron Nesmith scored a team-high 26 points on 4-of-5 from 3, while G Andrew Nembhard had a double-double (13 points, 10 assists).

The Pacers beat the Heat 123-99, covering as 6.5-point home underdogs with the Under (236.5) hitting in their last meeting Jan. 10. Miami won the first meeting 142-116 Dec. 27.

Watch the NBA on Fubo!Heat at Pacers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:51 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Heat -400 (bet $400 to win $100) | Pacers +310 (bet $100 to win $310)Against the spread (ATS): Heat -9.5 (-105) | Pacers +9.5 (-115)Over/Under (O/U): 245.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)Heat at Pacers key injuries

Heat

G Norman Powell (back) questionable

Pacers

G Johnny Furphy (knee) outG Tyrese Haliburton (achilles) outG T.J. McConnell (hamstring) questionableG Aaron Nesmith (back) questionableF Pascal Siakam (knee) questionableF Obi Toppin (back) questionableC Ivica Zubac (rib) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Heat at Pacers picks and predictionsPrediction

Heat 128, Pacers 122

PASS.

There is minimal value on the Heat (-400) to handle an injury-ridden Pacers (+310) squad.

BET PACERS +9.5 (-115).

The Pacers, despite their overall struggles, have played well against the spread of late. They have covered in each of their last 5 games and are 6-2 ATS over their last 8, including 4-0 ATS over their last 4 at home. While not by much, they have played their best basketball in front of their home fans.

The Heat have dropped 6 of their last 7 and are 2-5 ATS in that span.

LEAN OVER 245.5 (-110).

The Pacers have hit the Over in 7 of their last 10, scoring at least 119 in 4 of their last 5. They have allowed at least 126 in 6 of their last 7.

The Heat have also hit the Over in 7 of their last 10. They have scored 120 or more in 4 of their last 5, including back-to-back games and each of their last 3 on the road, while allowing at least 121 in 6 of their last 7.

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