Every Monday, we catch you up on the happenings in the NBA. This week, we’ll analyze the NBA’s latest three proposals to fix tanking. Also, we have two weeks left in the season for some playoff positioning. How does the penultimate week look?

We also have the extended version of the NBA Stock Report, a Monday staple in The Bounce. That’s our free NBA newsletter that you can sign up for and receive every day in your inbox.

The Big Story: Fixing tanking?

Last week, the NBA introduced three potential changes to the draft lottery to address tanking. I’ll remind you that Adam Silver said after the NBA Board of Governors meeting last Wednesday that the league will fix tanking, punctuating it with “full stop.” Not long after, the three draft lottery proposals leaked, and they will be voted on in May at a special Board of Governors meeting.

Naturally, the ideas are … not amazing. One of them could and should work the way it is intended to, but the other two plans are fairly convoluted. Just in case you missed it, let’s break down each one with the pros and cons. We’ll go in reverse order of how good I believe the idea is:

3. Multiple lotteries in one draft: This plan calls for a lottery for the first five picks in the draft, and then a lottery for the next 13 picks. The potential lottery teams would extend to the four losers of the Play-In Tournament (two in each conference). The five worst teams would have the best and equal odds. If one of the five worst teams didn’t end up with a top-five pick in the first lottery, the lowest it could potentially pick is 10th, regardless of the results of the second lottery.

This is remarkably stupid as a potential fix, and therefore, I fear it is the one the NBA might go with. Why is it so dumb?

Teams are just going to tank to end up with one of the five worst records! Extending this to five teams instead of three teams having the best-but-equal odds (14 percent currently for the three worst records) doesn’t fix a thing. Now you’ll have even more teams trying to make sure they fall into that bottom five. Having a second lottery for picks 6-18 is a cute wrinkle that doesn’t do anything of substance. It’s just gimmicky. This is a 0/10 in terms of potentially fixing the lottery system to curb/eliminate tanking “full stop.”

2. Two-year aggregates: This plan includes not just the Play-In teams but also the losers of the first round of the playoffs, so we’re talking a lottery of 22 teams in total. Their odds would be ranked based on their records over the last two seasons. And there would be a mandatory floor for wins. For example, if the league sets a 20-win floor, any team that falls short of it would still count 20 wins toward that season’s record. So losing more than 62 games in a given season would not hold any incentive. But is this still promoting tanking?

We need to know what the lottery odds for these 22 teams will be. How close to even are they? How much advantage is given to the teams with bad records? What should the win total floor actually be? Would 25 wins be the ideal situation? We have one of the biggest tanking seasons in recent memory going on, with nine of the 10 teams outside of the postseason bailing on trying to win the last couple of months of the season. Only the New Orleans Pelicans aren’t tanking because they don’t own their draft pick. They’re just bad. Four teams could finish with 20 wins or fewer this season. (The Sacramento Kings have 19 wins, but they might not win more than one game the rest of this season.)

Since the 2013-14 season (remember everybody tanking that year for Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Joel Embiid and more?), 20 teams have failed to reach 20 wins in a season. That doesn’t count the four potentially this year. Twenty teams over a 12-season span (remember, two seasons were cut short because of the COVID-19 pandemic) doesn’t seem egregious to me. Expand it to teams that failed to win 25 games since 2013-14, and that number jumps to 52.

The floor for the win total is the key to this proposal. It has the potential to fix part of the tanking issue, but I also fear it encourages teams to tank for two-year periods, rather than just one. I’d give it a 4/10 for potentially fixing the lottery, but the win floor could push it to like a 6. The odds breakdown for the lottery spots would definitely matter too.

1. Extend the lottery to Play-In teams and even out the bottom-10 odds: This plan gives us the teams with the 10 worst records all having even odds of moving up, and we extend the lottery to the four teams that lost the Play-In. I like this plan. For years, I’ve been calling for flattening the odds for every team that qualifies for the lottery.

The pushback has been that you’d get teams tanking out of the Play-In/playoffs, which I just don’t buy. It might happen every once in a while, but there’s no way this would be a consistent tactic. Teams will always want to make the playoffs if they can. I can’t imagine them bailing on the potential of a couple of games of home playoff revenue for a minuscule chance at securing a top pick through the lottery. Here, there is no incentive to be a horrific team. You should end up getting more and more teams putting forth a better effort with this plan.

In this proposal, we don’t quite have even odds across the board, but making the 10 worst teams all equal in how the lottery odds shake out is nearly doing that. The remaining eight teams would all receive 2.5 percent odds.

Teams will tank into those bottom-10 spots when the draft makes it worth it, but that might be something that happens over a couple of weeks rather than a couple of months. This feels like a 9/10 on fixing tanking.

The NBA should absolutely go with this plan over the other two. Sometimes, you just need to keep it simple.

NBA Stock Report Extended

📈 Detroit Pistons (54-20). As soon as we learned that Cade Cunningham was out with a collapsed lung, it was fair to wonder if the Pistons might be in danger of losing their lead in the Eastern Conference. They had a big cushion over the Boston Celtics, but the Pistons already struggled to score in games where Cunningham sat for just 14 minutes. Worry no longer! The Pistons have been just fine without Cunningham. Counting the game he got hurt (in which he only played five minutes), Detroit is 6-1. The only setback was a one-point loss in overtime to the Atlanta Hawks, with Jalen Duren missing a putback attempt at the buzzer.

J.B. Bickerstaff has had the Pistons at the top of the East all season. (Patrick McDermott / Getty Images)

Duren has stepped up massively, averaging 24.1 points on 66.7 percent shooting from the field and 86.9 percent from the foul line. He’s also averaging 10.9 rebounds and 3.0 assists. Daniss Jenkins has improved on his already stellar season with 18.1 points and 7.3 assists during this stretch. He’s knocking down 47.1 percent of his 3-pointers in these seven games. This is all happening with Isaiah Stewart out with a calf strain. The Pistons have one of the toughest schedules the rest of the way, but the No. 1 seed appears to be safe.

📉 Houston Rockets (45-29). The Rockets have been shockingly horrible in the clutch. A team adding Kevin Durant should not be this bad, and yet it can’t be trusted in any close game. The biggest spotlight on the clutch woes was the overtime loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves last week. The Rockets blew a 13-point overtime lead and lost by giving up a 15-0 run in the final couple of minutes. They became the first team in the last 29 years (when play-by-play data became available) to lose a game after leading by 10 or more in overtime. Teams were 180-0 in those games. Now they’re 180-1. It’s nothing new with this team figuring out how to lose tight games.

Houston is 4-9 in games decided by three points or fewer. It’s 19-22 in games with clutch minutes (margin of five points or fewer in the final five minutes). It’s 21st in clutch offense, even worse than the Orlando Magic. It’s 25th in clutch defense, only better than the Washington Wizards, Pelicans, Miami Heat, Denver Nuggets and Brooklyn Nets. The Rockets’ minus-9.4 net rating in the clutch is 24th in the NBA. Only the Portland Trail Blazers turn the ball over more in the clutch. This is all happening with Durant shooting 52.4 percent in the clutch this season.

📈 Denver Nuggets (48-28). That’s six wins in a row for the Nuggets. It hasn’t been the toughest of schedules, but stacking wins at any point in the season in the top four of the Western Conference is meaningful, no matter what. This is coming at a crucial time with the Nuggets trying to secure the No. 3 seed in the West. Denver has gone 9-2 in its last 11 games, and the healthier version of this team definitely looks the way we expected it to going into the season. Jamal Murray has been torching opposing defenses, and Nikola Jokić is dropping dimes left and right.

The Nuggets are making well over 40 percent of their 3-pointers during these 11 games. And they have almost a 3:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Cam Johnson is just under 50 percent from 3-point range during this. That’s the shooter the Nuggets thought they traded for in the offseason. Really, everybody except for Jokić is knocking down 3-pointers, and the return of Peyton Watson is another big boost. Denver might be hitting its stride at the right time, which is scary for everybody else out West.

📉 Milwaukee Bucks (29-45). The Bucks have embraced the tank, which is good. Because they weren’t going to do anything the rest of this season anyway. While the tank has only recently become part of their M.O., they have been doing it in spirit for a while. They’ve lost 14 of their last 17 games. These losses are getting pretty ugly, too. They’ve only cleared 100 points in two of their last eight losses. The Bucks barely have enough bodies right now for a rotation. All of the Antetokounmpos are out. Gary Harris Jr., Ryan Rollins, Myles Turner, Bobby Portis, Kyle Kuzma and Kevin Porter Jr. have all missed games recently. Doc Rivers is even putting on-the-fly junk offenses into practice to give the guys a chance to move the ball to get some shots.

This team is turning it over like crazy, and they can’t guard anybody. And Giannis hasn’t been cleared by the medical staff yet, so they get to kick the can down the road on whether or not they shut him down for the rest of the season. This is a big-time mess, but it’s a necessary mess. It may not seem like much, but the Bucks are battling with Chicago to be in a position for a 20.3 percent chance to move up to a top-four pick in the lottery.

📈 LA Clippers (39-36). The Clippers are up to five straight wins, as they continue to reverse their fortunes from the first 27 games this season. That’s when they began 6-21. Since then, the Clippers have won 33 of their last 48 games. They’ve turned it around a second time recently, too. This five-game win streak comes after a four-game losing streak (which included two losses to the Pelicans and a loss to the Kings) seemingly brought the Clippers back down to earth. They’re back over .500 and should remain there for the rest of the season. The Clippers are also up to eighth in the West, and they’re only 2 1/2 games behind the Suns for seventh.

During this five-game streak, Kawhi Leonard continues to play like one of the best players in the world, putting up 27.4 points on nearly 50 percent from the field in fewer than 30 minutes per game. Darius Garland’s play is super encouraging. He looks healthy from that toe issue, and he’s shooting the lights out. He’s been averaging 25.0 points with 58.7/58.1/92.3 shooting splits. That’s a 77.4 percent true shooting. For any handful of games, that’s a pretty impressive efficiency.

📉 Brooklyn Nets (18-57). The good news is the Nets just beat Sacramento to end their 10-game losing streak. The bad news is they had a 10-game losing streak, and it might have been even worse than the number of consecutive losses would lead you to believe. The Nets had five consecutive games scoring fewer than 100 points, and seven of the 10 games didn’t see them hit triple digits. That’s unfathomable in this era of basketball with the shooting, the execution and the pace of play. Somehow, the Nets managed to fly way under their already subterraneanly low expectations. The Nets have a 102.0 offensive rating during this stretch of basketball. The second worst during this stretch is Milwaukee at 108.7. You never see a gulf like that between 29th and 30th.

Michael Porter Jr. has only played in one of these games as the Nets dive headfirst into tanking. Ben Saraf, Chaney Johnson and Drake Powell have the most minutes during this 11-game disaster. Josh Minott, Saraf and Ziaire Williams have the most points. Saraf, Nolan Traore and Minott have the most shot attempts. And no matter how much time is on the court for any individual player, there isn’t a single positive plus/minus on this team. Malachi Smith is the leader in that category at minus-1 in 151 minutes. Maybe play him more?

📈 Luka Dončić. Over his last 12 games, Dončić is going on a Wilt Chamberlain-esque scoring stretch. The Lakers star is averaging 39.7 points with 8.1 rebounds, 6.9 assists and 2.5 steals during this stretch. He’s doing it on a great level of efficiency, knocking down 48.9 percent of his shots, 39.3 percent of his 3-pointers and 80.0 percent of his free throws. The level of shot making is something we see from Dončić all the time, but not this extended period of time. This isn’t even pumped up all that much by his 60-point game, which fell in the middle of this streak. Take that out, and he’s still averaging 37.8 points on 47.8/37.6/80.2 shooting splits in those 11 games. This is some of the best basketball we’ve seen from Dončić. Why would you ever trade him?

The Week Ahead: Playoff Race

There are two weeks left in the season, and a lot of change can happen in the standings. Let’s take a look at the upcoming week and what might happen.

Eastern Conference 2-4 seeding:

Boston (50-24): at Hawks, at Heat, at Bucks, home to Raptors.
New York (48-27): at Rockets, at Grizzlies, home to Bulls.
Cleveland (46-28): at Jazz, at Lakers, at Warriors, home to Pacers.

Even though the Celtics have a potentially tough schedule this week, it feels less and less likely the Knicks are going to make up the distance in the standings. I’m not sure the Celtics will lose three more games, let alone have the Knicks win out to tie them. They do have a showdown in the final week of the season, and it would give the Knicks the season series if they win it. They might need to be more worried about Cleveland catching them for the third spot. Or do they want that to happen? Do the Knicks feel better about a second-round matchup against Detroit, rather than Boston? The Cavs are just one loss back, but the Knicks own the season series tiebreaker.

Eastern Conference 5-10 seeding:

Toronto (42-32): at Pistons, home to Kings, at Grizzlies, at Celtics.
Atlanta (42-33): home to Celtics, at Magic, at Nets.
Philadelphia (41-33): at Heat, at Wizards, home to Wolves, home to Pistons.
Orlando (39-35): home to Suns, home to Hawks, at Mavs, at Pelicans.
Miami (39-36): home to Sixers, home to Celtics, at Wizards.
Charlotte (39-36): at Nets, home to Suns, home to Pacers, at Wolves.

The Raptors are spending this week trying to keep the Hawks and 76ers at bay. That won’t be easy with the Pistons and Celtics ahead of them for road games, but they do get a couple of tanking teams in the middle. The Hawks also get the Celtics, but the collective states of the Magic and Nets make the rest of their week a potential breeze. As long as Philly is healthy, it could have a great start to the week. But Minnesota and Detroit could prove troublesome. As for the rest of the search for the top six, Charlotte has the best chance of moving up to eighth in the East. Those first three games should be wins, and the Hornets definitely play Minnesota tough as a matchup.

The Spurs and Thunder have been battling all season, and the No. 1 seed in the West still isn’t locked down by OKC. (Alonzo Adams / Imagn Images)

Western Conference 1-2 seeding:

Oklahoma City (59-16): home to Pistons, home to Lakers, home to Jazz.
San Antonio (56-18): home to Bulls, at Warriors, at Clippers, at Nuggets.

As good as the Spurs have been, they still can’t seem to get closer than 2 1/2 games in the standings. Their schedule shows they should at least go 3-1 this week, but the Thunder are getting the Pistons without Cunningham and a Jazz team that is just showing up right now.

Western Conference 3-6 seeding:

Lakers (48-26): home to Wizards, home to Cavs, at Thunder, at Mavs.
Denver (48-28): at Jazz, home to Spurs.
Minnesota (45-29): at Mavs, at Pistons, at Sixers, home to Hornets.
Houston (45-29): home to Knicks, home to Bucks, home to Jazz, at Warriors.

The Nuggets can’t make too much noise in their pursuit of the No. 3 seed with just two games on the docket, so they’re going to need teams to help them out against the Lakers. Even with Dončić missing the Wizards game due to suspension, Washington won’t be much help. Cleveland and OKC could help shake up this four-team logjam. Minnesota has a pretty tough schedule, but it’s expected to get Anthony Edwards back against Dallas. Assuming he’s good to go, 4-0 is on the table. Houston has been a mess lately, but the Rockets have two definitely easy games. For some reason, I’m not sure you can trust them against Golden State.

Western Conference Play-In positioning:

Phoenix (41-33): at Grizzlies, at Magic, at Hornets, at Bulls.
Clippers (39-36): home to Blazers, home to Spurs, at Kings.
Portland (38-38): at Clippers, home to Pelicans.
Golden State (36-38): home to Spurs, home to Cavs, home to Rockets.

If the Suns had a tougher schedule, it might be worth wondering if the Clippers can catch them for the seventh spot. That home-court advantage in the first stage of the Play-In would be big for both teams. Phoenix, even with its injuries, should still be able to maintain a couple of games of distance. Portland has to be happy that Golden State has such a bad run of games here. If Portland can go at least 1-1, then that puts a lot of pressure on the Warriors. The Blazers hold that tiebreaker over them.