There are 13 days left in the NBA’s 2025-26 regular season, but the Eastern Conference playoff picture remains a chaotic blur with the six teams in spots 5-10 separated by just 3.5 games. Trying to predict who might emerge as the Boston Celtics’ first-round opponent remains a dart throw. 

Here’s what we know: The Celtics hold a two-game lead on the Knicks in the race for the No. 2 seed, though New York holds the head-to-head tiebreaker (division record) if the teams finish with matching records. There’s a very good chance that the final head-to-head meeting on April 9 will dictate exactly who emerges with the No. 2 seed.

The finish line of the Celtics’ schedule feels a bit like a playoff appetizer platter. Seven of Boston’s final 10 games are against potential first-round opponents, or that cluster of six teams slotted in spots 5-10 in the East. The Knicks would be the Round 2 opponent if they stay at No. 3 and the higher seeds take care of business in Round 1. 

Given the volatility in spots 5-10, we wondered if there are more agreeable opponents than others for the Celtics. If Boston finishes with the No. 2 seed, it would play the winner of the 7-8 play-in game in Round 1; if the Celtics finish with the No. 3 seed, they would play the No. 6 seed to start the playoffs.

Just how jumbled is the bottom of the playoff bracket? All six teams in spots 5-10 are alive for the No. 7 spot, with no team holding better than a 33.1 percent chance to finish there, per Basketball Reference’s daily playoff probabilities report. The Charlotte Hornets face the longest odds to shuffle beyond the 9-10 matchup of the play-in tournament, but five teams have at least a 12 percent chance at the No. 7 spot, per Basketball Reference’s simulations.

If the season ended today, the Philadelphia 76ers and Orlando Magic would meet in the 7-8 game to determine the No. 7 seed. The Atlanta Hawks, who snapped Boston’s three-game win streak on Monday, would be the No. 6 seed.

Who should Celtics fans want their team to face in Round 1? Is there truly a better matchup than another? Is there an opponent they might want to avoid more than another?

The Celtics own a 13-6 record against the teams at the bottom of the East bracket. That includes 3-0 marks against Miami and Toronto, though they’ll play both again over the next six days. Boston lost twice to Philadelphia, but played three games against the 76ers before November 11. The Celtics don’t look like quite the same team now, even beyond the obvious recent return of Jayson Tatum.

To determine the most daunting opponent, we wondered how each of the teams in spots 5-10 fared against top-tier talent. So, we crunched each team’s numbers vs. opponents in the top 10 of point differential in the NBA. Here’s the data from the folks at Cleaning the Glass: 

It’s somewhat surprising that Miami has four more wins than any other team in that cluster. The Hornets — the only team in spots 5-10 that resides in the top 10 in point differential overall — have played fewer total games against top teams than their rivals.

Miami’s biggest weapon might be on the sideline with head coach Erik Spoelstra, who is capable of putting his team in the best possible position to be successful. In fact, the 2023 Heat are basically the only team to emerge from a play-in position and create noise in the postseason (as Celtics fans know all too well). The Heat made the NBA Finals as the No. 8 seed that season.

The Celtics rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating this season, making a notable surge defensively in the second half of the season. So, how has the cluster of play-in potential teams fared against the top 10 squads in defensive rating this season?

The Magic fare better than the pack against elite defenses, while Miami’s winning percentage dips compared to games against teams with the highest point differential. 

The data suggests that Toronto might be the most ideal matchup for a top-tier opponent. Basketball Reference’s simulations give the Raptors a 79.5 percent chance to land outside the play-in. 

The most likely 7-8 matchup per Basketball Reference’s simulations: Miami vs. Philadelphia. Those two teams just happened to meet on Monday night with the Heat, even while playing without Norm Powell, earning a double-digit win against a full-health Sixers squad. 

Buckle up. There are still plenty of twists and turns before this playoff picture comes into focus.