Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Indiana Pacers at Charlotte Hornets on Friday.

Drafted with the third pick in the 2020 NBA Draft, LaMelo Ball has played 298 career games and averaged 20.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 7.3 assists per game. By any measure except for durability, his career has been a success. But unlike Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Haliburton, and Tyrese Maxey — three of the other four All-Stars in the class — Ball has never played a playoff game.

He’s closing in on changing that this season, as his Charlotte Hornets are currently the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference and have an excellent chance to inch closer to the top six tonight if they can beat the woeful Indiana Pacers at 7:10 p.m. ET.

Indiana has plenty of motivation to lose, as it is only one and a half games ahead of the Sacramento Kings for the third-worst record in the league and owes a top-four protected pick to the LA Clippers. As such, the Pacers’ injury list is fairly long: in addition to Haliburton (Achilles), Johnny Furphy (ACL), and Ivica Zubac (rib), who are out for the season, T.J. McConnell (hamstring), Andrew Nembhard (back), Aaron Nesmith (back), and Jarace Walker (back) will sit out tonight’s game. The Hornets should be completely healthy.

Charlotte is a 15.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-1350 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 234.5. Indiana is +800 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this matchup and offer a prediction.

Indiana Pacers at Charlotte Hornets preview, prediction

To be fair, the Pacers have won two straight games after starting the second half of the season off with a 16-game losing streak, and they’ve scored at least 135 points in both of the wins. The last two wins have mostly been the doing of Pascal Siakam, who could sneak onto an All-NBA team if he plays four more games. They’ve also gotten plenty of contributions from unsung players, including 24 points from rookie Ethan Thompson in Wednesday’s win over the Chicago Bulls. That won’t be helpful this season, but it’s possible that Thompson could be part of the rotation when Indiana jumps back into contention next season.

Meanwhile, the Hornets have stayed hot. Since the calendar flipped to 2026, Charlotte is 30-14, and likely Rookie of the Year Kon Knueppel is averaging 18.5 points per game on 43.1% shooting from beyond the arc across that span. All in all, the Hornets have four players averaging at least 17 points per game (Brandon Miller, Ball, Knueppel, and Miles Bridges), and Coby White has averaged 15.9 points per game as Charlotte’s sixth man since arriving in a trade from the Chicago Bulls. There’s recent precedent for a team getting hot at the turn of the calendar and riding that momentum deep into the playoffs; last season’s Pacers were just 16-18 on December 31 and ended up making it to Game 7 of the NBA Finals.

Pacers at Hornets pick, best bet

Charlotte’s contender-level run now accounts for more than half of its season. Since January 1, the Hornets have had the league’s best offense, its fourth-best defense, and its best net rating. For the season, no lineup with at least 100 minutes played has a better net rating than Charlotte’s starting unit of Ball, Knueppel, Miller, Bridges, and Moussa Diabaté (plus-28.7). The Hornets’ form stands in stark contrast with that of Indiana: this season, the Pacers have had the fourth-worst offense and the fourth-worst defense. However, it’s possible that they’ll be slightly better off without Nembhard and Walker, both of whom have negative on-off net ratings this season. They’ll have their most important player, Siakam, whose plus-6.2 on-off net rating is the 32nd-best in basketball.

It’s just difficult for any team to get much going against a defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest shot attempts within five feet since January 1, and Indiana will probably struggle more than most with that, given that it has generated the ninth-fewest close-range tries since the All-Star break. Plus, while Charlotte’s offense is perimeter-centric, it might do a better job getting to the rack than usual tonight against a Pacers defense that has allowed the third-most shots within five feet across the second half of the season, but driving will always be a supplementary piece.

The Hornets should also be able to get plenty of extra possessions. They’ve been dominant on the glass this season, posting the league’s highest rebounding percentage since January 1, snagging 37.2% of all available offensive boards and 73.3% of all defensive boards. Additionally, Indiana has been the leagues third-worst rebounding team across the same span, and Walker and Nembhard have both made a positive impact on the glass. Neither team has a significant advantage over the other in transition, and both are equally disciplined and equally bad at drawing fouls.

The Pacers’ ability to defend the three-point line will be key. Charlotte depends heavily on its three-point shooting, and it’s generated some pretty easy looks, attempting the third-most wide-open three-pointers per game since the start of 2026 while connecting at a 41.9% clip. With Knueppel ranking fourth league-wide in three-point percentage over expectation, that’s likely to be sustainable. However, Indiana has actually created even more uncontested triples in the same span and converted at a similar rate, and it has done an even better job closing out on opposing shooters. The Hornets have benefited from more shooting luck defensively than the Pacers have, as Charlotte’s opponents have converted at a league-low 35.4% clip on wide-open threes since the start of the calendar year.

The Hornets’ advantage in interior defense and rebounding is real, as is Indiana’s dip in form on the road. Ultimately, though, the Pacers’ spot among the bottom three is relatively secure, and as long as Siakam plays a regular minutes load, he should be able to keep the game within 10 points. The swarming defensive identity that carried them to the NBA Finals last season could provide a challenge for Charlotte’s perimeter-oriented offense. To boot, Indiana is actually 2-1 against the Hornets this season.

Best bet: Indiana Pacers +9.5 Alternate Spread (+200)