Alex Hunter breaks down his preview, prediction and pick for Monday’s NBA matchup between the Nuggets and the Trail Blazers.

The Nuggets are hosting the Trail Blazers on Monday. Denver is favored by 7.5 points onDraftKings Sportsbook, with the game total at 238.5 points.

Let’s dive into my preview and pick for this matchup.

Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers preview

Following a Lakers’ loss Sunday night, the Nuggets are now tied with Los Angeles for the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference. The Lakers hold the tiebreaker between the clubs, but Denver is in the driver’s seat for that seed, with Luka Doncic (hamstring) and Austin Reaves (oblique) sidelined for the rest of the regular season.

The Nuggets have won eight straight — the longest active winning streak in the league — and getting another victory Monday night is obviously important. This is also a crucial game for the No. 9-seeded Trail Blazers. Portland, already locked into a play-in spot, is tied with the Clippers in the standings and could move into eighth place with a win on Monday. Finishing as the seventh or eighth seed in the play-in is paramount, as those teams only need one win to advance to the playoffs.

The Nuggets are 2-1 against the Trail Blazers this season, including a 44-point blowout win in February. Portland’s lone victory against Denver came all the way back in October, winning by just two points.

Denver is fresh off one of its best wins of the season, defeating the Spurs, 136-134, in an overtime thriller on Saturday. The Nuggets railed late to force overtime and snap San Antonio’s 11-game winning streak. Dueling with Victor Wembanyama, Nikola Jokic erupted for 40 points, 12 assists, and eight rebounds.

Since the All-Star break, the Nuggets are 15-8 and rank eighth in net rating. Meanwhile, the Trail Blazers are 13-9 and rank 14th in net rating over this stretch.

Portland has won five of its last six games and enters Monday’s contest on a three-game winning streak. However, all of these wins have come against lottery-bound teams, with a 114-104 over the Clippers on Tuesday being the most notable. A recurring theme this season, the Trail Blazers have beaten up on bad teams but struggled against the league’s elite. Portland is 15-31 against teams over .500, which is easily the worst record among playoff or play-in teams.

Shaedon Sharpe (leg) and Jerami Grant (calf) both remain out on Monday, continuing to hinder the offense outside of Deni Avdija. Unless the forward has a massive showing, Portland could have trouble keeping up with Denver’s high-powered offense.

Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers pick, best Bet

The Nuggets are the far superior team and should win this game on their home floor. Denver is 25-13 at home while Portland is 18-21 on the road.

The Nuggets -7.5 has merit, but the club is just 19-19 ATS at home this season. However, Denver is a league-best 48-30 for the over, making over 238.5 points the smart play for this contest. Two of the three matchups between the Nuggets and Trail Blazers this season have cleared the over.

Best Bet: Over 238.5 Points (-105)