The Toronto Raptors are playing a dangerous game of musical chairs in the Eastern Conference playoff race.

Following a frustrating loss to the Boston Celtics, the Raptors return home to square off against the Miami Heat, who mirrors Toronto’s own struggle for consistency in a crowded mid-table sprint.

To learn more about what’s happening behind the scenes with the Heat, I sat down with Ethan J. Skolnick, publisher of Miami Heat On SI. Ethan provides an expert’s look at why the Heat are struggling this season, the frontcourt rotation’s rise, and why the Raptors could pull out a win against Erik Spoelstra’s squad.

Here are five burning questions ahead of tonight’s tip-off.

1. The Raptors and Heat are both in the midst of a crowded Eastern Conference race. What do the Heat need to do to move forward?

At this point, it’s looking like the Heat are headed for the back end of the play-in tournament — again. This will be the fourth straight season with that outcome, though the Heat did make it to a playoff series each of the prior three years. With the exception of one winning streak, the Heat have had trouble generating any consistency. A second loss to the tanking Indiana Pacers pretty much did it for their chance of a top-six seed. 

2. What has been the biggest surprise with the Heat this season?Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo reacts after scoring against the Philadelphia 76ers

Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo reacts after scoring against the Philadelphia 76ers. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Well, other than Bam Adebayo exploding for 83 points in a game, it’s probably been that Erik Spoelstra has seemed to put more effort into making the Tyler Herro + Norm Powell pairing work than in deploying Adebayo and Kel’el Ware together up front to combat the Heat’s overall lack of size. It’s somewhat explainable due to Ware’s vacillating motor, but we probably should have seen more of it. 

3. What’s one thing people should know about the Heat that cannot be found in a box score?

Their wings are usually the reason they win. Pelle Larsson has been a nice surprise as a second-season second-round pick; he does all the little things and plays with the effort more of his teammates need to model. Jaime Jaquez Jr. has had a tremendous bounceback season off the bench, though he’s been a lot more productive against subpar teams than elite ones. 

4. If the Heat were to beat the Raptors, what would be the reason why?

That they finally handle the Raptors’ length. That has been a problem in the two earlier meetings, and against a lot of teams that are built like Toronto is. Miami needs to make some threes to alleviate any issues in the paint. 

5. What’s your prediction for the game?

Don’t love the Heat’s chances here; yes, they are coming off two off days, and a win over the weak Washington Wizards, but there’s nothing in the first two matchups with the Raptors that was especially encouraging. Toronto 121, Miami 109.

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